2019 Novel Coronavirus

[Road Guy]

I can’t find on Hopkins where it plots deaths versus cases(on the same graph) - I am mainly just curious to see what the trend was in the spring versus now, I think August will be interesting - my thoughts is that in the spring the actual number of cases had to be at least 25-30% more than what was reported to make the deaths match the rate that is happening today. So I want to work backwards to fill the holes in to see what it looked like in real time and not skewed.

My non scientist self thinks we didn’t really see a big wave in June so much as we were really still in the middle of the first wave.

While CO isn’t Florida there is a large influx of people here in the summer - the hospitalization rates have been pretty level here since May & pretty much the only thing you can’t do is go to a ball game / concert / movie / etc - but folks are out and about restaurants are as full as they can be.

Maybe they are all taking it back to Texas with them and the locals are not picking it up- but it just doesn’t make sense to me..I really figured we wouldn’t get through the summer here without a lot of the mountain towns shut down (happy to be wrong) maybe I’ll buy ski passes after all...

 

[Dleg]

I see the types of graphs you suggest, and here's my takeaway:

- the surge in the spring was much more severe because it hit us before we were testing, and social distancing measures (and masks) were not being used yet. So it spread like wildfire. Cases went up very rapidly, and so did deaths. Cases were very much undercounted because at the time, only the sickest were being tested. 

- The initial surge was limited  mostly to parts of the east and west coasts, where the virus first landed in the greatest numbers. Everywhere else saw smaller surges but just as sharp, only because fewer people were traveling there from the international hotspots at the time.

- Spread of the virus dropped starting April because everyone was staying home and freaking out.

- People started going out and about when states reopened around Memorial day, and when the internet propaganda started about freedoms and masks etc. The virus started spreading from the cities to the rest of the country.

- The rise we are seeing now is not as steep but the magnitude is much larger, and it is steepening. To me this reflects the virus spreading in more places, but slower because of mitigation measures. But mathematics is mathematics, and the slope is steepening because growth is still exponential.

- Deaths are increasing but the curve is rising less steeply than the first surge. I have a couple ideas why this is: 

     - testing is more widespread, so the total case count is getting closer to reality and is finally including a lot of well people/asymptomatics

     - The most vulnerable people are being better protected now than when this whole thing kicked off, which started before we were even aware of it in NY, NJ, WA etc.

- The death curve is steepening. How steep will it get?  That will totally depend on people's behaviors and state and local government actions. It seems like people in power are finaly getting more scared of being responsible for deaths than being responsible for inconveniences, so maybe this death spike will level off before hitting the numbers we saw in April. But we have something very bad this time that we did not have in April: much, much wider spread. So even though the steepness of the death curve may not be as high this time, the magnitude might be higher. So we might actually see more deaths this time around, even if we don't see people turned away from ICUs. Because instead of happening only in NY and NJ, it will be in every large, medium, and small city in the country. 

- And then we have the fall. There was hope, with good reason, that the virus would not spread as easily in the summer. This is not turning out to be the case. Does this mean it will spread even more efficiently in the fall and winter, when people are crowded together indoors?  When kids are back in school?  These are not political questions. Simply epidemiologic questions that depend on only a couple of variables: how contagious the virus is, and how much opportunity we give it to spread.

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[Dleg]

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[Dleg]

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[Orchid PE]

^- I think anything less than a Cat 2 they probably don’t even buy milk?

My dad said to me “I spent 10K on hurricane shutters I want to see if they work!”

So far I've been through Erin, Opal, Ivan, Denis, Katrina, and Michael? I'm sure I've forgotten one.

I think now that I have kids, if I ever live in FL again I'll send them away if a hurricane is coming. Michael hit when my daughter was two weeks old, and it spun up too quickly for us to get a game plan together.

 

[Road Guy]

I think the debate is if you dont fly out early where do you go? Just sit on I-75 waiting to run out of gas and get gorged at the Hotels?  - That was my parents feelings for the one that Hit Tampa a few years ago (although my Dad still hasnt bought a generator yet) - there main problem was no power for about 10 days.

I lived in Savannah for Hurricane David in 79 - although I was pretty young I can remember the house shaking and feeling like it was coming to come apart any second. several of our neighbors houses got crushed by some huge trees - I guess my dad has forgotten that!  

 

[Tiger15]

I've ridden out more than my share of hurricanes in Louisiana. We never used to evacuate. People didn't really evacuate en masse until Hurricane Ivan in 2004 which was predicted to be an end-of-the world type storm but turned out to be nothing in LA. (I think it had more impact in other places, but I don't really remember.) But honestly that was kind of a blessing because that prompted more people to evacuate next year when Katrina hit.  

 

[Road Guy]

I had to work hurricane Andrew that hit South Florida in the early 90's when I was still in the Army NG - people were hijacking supply trucks on the Florida Turnpik - but we just escorted (armed) the relief trucks and supplies, after making that run from Ga to South Florida  few times in a humve with no AC it got very old vey quick (well actually it was old after the first trip!) 

Here is what I guess I was trying to find - would like to see something similar for the US, but here are two graphs I stole from Colorado's Covid Corona Site.   

Maybe the very high risk are taking precautions - these trends in both cumulative cases and the 3 day average dont really line up

At the April 12 point my wife said they had 35 Covid patients in her ICU (which only holds 24 so she said it was a shit show) yesterday they had 3?

 

[Orchid PE]

I'm glad we didn't live in the Andrew path; that one was terrible. Ivan hit our area pretty hard. We were without power for about 30 days, but ran the fridge off of one generator and the water well and TV off another. Lived off of MREs for a few months, and I actually didn't mind them. Most of the pastas were good and the grilled chicken breast was a treat. I never did try the grape smoothie, though. We had tons of tiny tabasco sauce bottles for years after that. After Ivan, the area I lived in realized they needed better hurricane evacuation routes. They then spent the next 10 or so years making routes. The south FL hurricane traffic is unbelievable. I don't think they'll ever be able to prepare for the traffic that comes out of south FL!

FL's covid numbers dropped last week and its probably because people were staying home to prepare for the storm. This hurricane season has been pretty active, and with my luck if I do move back down to FL I'll have to work multiple storms. At least I'll get overtime.

I wonder how fantasy football is going to go this year.

 

[Tiger15]

I wonder how fantasy football is going to go this year.

THIS

 

[Violator]

 

[Dleg]

 

[Supe]

Most people can swim anyways, geez.

 

[Orchid PE]

Just like the Titanic, covid has killed more men than women, as well as killed more elderly than young.  I think the universe hates old men.

 

[Road Guy]

and there was room for Jack on that piece of debris!

Has anyone done the Dentist yet? Supposed to go tomorrow but thinking about cancelling?

 

[tj_PE]

and there was room for Jack on that piece of debris!

Has anyone done the Dentist yet? Supposed to go tomorrow but thinking about cancelling?

i am overdue for my 6mo but i am NOT going in . they're in peoples mouths all day. My teeth are fine. i'll just floss some extra.

 

[Supe]

I have a chip in my tooth that's driving me insane because I keep catching my tongue on it (they missed a spot when I had it bonded a while back), but I refuse to go in and have it corrected because of COVID. 

 

[leggo PE]

I went to see my dentist back in June. I was supposed to go like the week we went into SIP.

It was fine. They only let one person getting service in at once (the patient before would have already left), used an infrared thermometer to take my temperature upon arrival, didn't allow anyone to sit anywhere in the waiting area, and both the dentist and hygienist had face coverings under face shields. They were very efficient and I was out of there pretty darn quickly.

They also said you had to have a negative COVID test within 7 days of your appointment... Mine at the time was like 10 days old, but they let it slide.

 

[snickerd3]

and there was room for Jack on that piece of debris!

Has anyone done the Dentist yet? Supposed to go tomorrow but thinking about cancelling?

I went and both my kids went in June while we were experiencing a multi-week period of no new cases.  Been to the eye Dr and regular dr Too.   They reduced the number of people in the office.  deep cleaning in between each appt.  temp checks outside before entering buildings.  The dental people wore gowns, masks, face shield, goggles, hair coverings, gloves.  

 

[txjennah PE]

Safety moment from today:

"The ticks are not social distancing!"

HUR HUR