EB Mafia

[RBHeadge PE]

Deep dive on @squaretaper LIT AF PE

He's claimed to be mafia every round for a couple months now. The only round he didn't claim mafia was the round he actually was mafia.

@squaretaper LIT AF PE if you are actually a townie, then your claims are a distraction that has the potential to lose it for the town. If you are actually mafia, then if we go for your claim, then your side loses a player and doesn't help your sides odds in the long term. Further if you are mafia and we ignore your claim, your gambit doesn't work tonight and if we survive long enough, we'll eventually vote you out anyway. 

Logical analysis:

1. Let's assume that he is am unreliable narrator, and that he's 50/50 chance of mafia.
   
2. Next, assume that my gut feelings above have some truth. In that there are 5 likely townies, and 5 unknowns. 
   
   ergo there are 3 maf in the 5 unknown.
   
   60% chance to guess right among the five
   
3. but square in this scenario is only a "50% chance" of being mafia
   
   if square is townie, then removing him from consideration, means 75% chance of guessing the right player from the other four
   
4. if he is mafia, then removing him from consideration means 50% chance of guessing the right player from the other four.
   

I'm inclined to remove him from lynching consideration tonight.

 

[tj_PE]

2 @JayKay PE (cheb, chart)

2 @ChebyshevII PE (jk, square)

2 @squaretaper LIT AF PE (roar, jp)

 

[Tiger15]

Deep dive on @squaretaper LIT AF PE

He's claimed to be mafia every round for a couple months now. The only round he didn't claim mafia was the round he actually was mafia.

@squaretaper LIT AF PE if you are actually a townie, then your claims are a distraction that has the potential to lose it for the town. If you are actually mafia, then if we go for your claim, then your side loses a player and doesn't help your sides odds in the long term. Further if you are mafia and we ignore your claim, your gambit doesn't work tonight and if we survive long enough, we'll eventually vote you out anyway. 

Logical analysis:

1. Let's assume that he is am unreliable narrator, and that he's 50/50 chance of mafia.
   
2. Next, assume that my gut feelings above have some truth. In that there are 5 likely townies, and 5 unknowns. 
   
   ergo there are 3 maf in the 5 unknown.
   
   60% chance to guess right among the five
   
3. but square in this scenario is only a "50% chance" of being mafia
   
   if square is townie, then removing him from consideration, means 75% chance of guessing the right player from the other four
   
4. if he is mafia, then removing him from consideration means 50% chance of guessing the right player from the other four.
   

I'm inclined to remove him from lynching consideration tonight.

I need to learn statitics

 

[JayKay PE]

Oh god. There are sub-subsections. This is hard for JK. 

 

[RBHeadge PE]

I need to learn statitics

so do I!

 

[MadamPirate PE]

Firstly, this game as a normal townie is hard. I'm finding myself relying on priors to try to piece things together. That's fine when you've been playing with the same group for a year. But I won't have that to rely in the tournament next week. I'm glad that I'm realizing this now, and not midgame, so that I can start adapting my strategies.

Next, we're starting to get to a point where there are enough posts that I/we can start parsing through previous in-round posts and votes. I'm stuck in training through 1600, and then have a bunch of "urgent" BS busy-work that must get done by the end of the day. So I won't have a chance to do major deep dives until after 1800.

With that said, based on "tells" I am inclined to believe that the following players are townies (pending deeper analysis).

• @ChebyshevII PE
  
• @JayKay PE
  
• @MadamPirate PE
  
• @SaltySteve ?
  
• @RBHeadge PE
  

The following players are ambiguous and will be the first to get a deep dive later today.

• @squaretaper LIT AF PE
  
• @Roarbark
  
• @SaltySteve (listing here too, as I want to confirm my earlier thoughts later tonight)
  

I have no opinion on the following players, and will attempt to scrutinize their posts later for clues

• @jean15paul_PE 
  
• @vhab49_PE
  
• @chart94
  

None of the above should be treated as more than a hunch.

>5/5

Using this list, I roll the RNG and get 10.

@tj_PE I vote for @vhab49_PE for the time being, in case I cant get back to the computer. 

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Oh god. There are sub-subsections. This is hard for JK. 

I might have outlined that poorly. I was trying to nest assumptions and outcomes. hard to do top down text rather than graphical event tree

 

[DLD PE]

 

[SaltySteve PE]

Have we heard from @SaltySteve today?

I thought I posted my vote earlier but apparently not.

JP didn't vote to kill Lycee last night, either trying to cool the suspicion or is a Townie. No clue which. 

Cheby is the only one that's on both nights lynching lists. So I'll go with that. @tj_PE I would like to vote for @ChebyshevII PE

Post (5/5)

 

[ChebyshevII PE PMP]

I thought I posted my vote earlier but apparently not.

JP didn't vote to kill Lycee last night, either trying to cool the suspicion or is a Townie. No clue which. 

Cheby is the only one that's on both nights lynching lists. So I'll go with that. @tj_PE I would like to vote for @ChebyshevII PE

Fair, although you are voting for a townie.

 

[Tiger15]

I thought I posted my vote earlier but apparently not.

JP didn't vote to kill Lycee last night, either trying to cool the suspicion or is a Townie. No clue which. 

Cheby is the only one that's on both nights lynching lists. So I'll go with that. @tj_PE I would like to vote for @ChebyshevII PE

I is a townie

 

[Tiger15]

signing off for a while to do works

(5++)

 

[JayKay PE]

I might have outlined that poorly. I was trying to nest assumptions and outcomes. hard to do top down text rather than graphical event tree

I may be slightly drunk with one eye closed so I Concentrate. . Please ignore JK during this time. 

 

[SaltySteve PE]

Fair, although you are voting for a townie.

Your'e not making this easy. I wanted to vote for you earlier today but then when I came back and saw you getting dog piled I wanted to vote somewhere else cause I don't have anything concrete and I hate to see anyone get hit by the rando vote train. 

@tj_PE change my vote back to @jean15paul_PE. They're on RBs list and I was already suspicious the past two rounds. Sorry to waffle like that.

 

[SaltySteve PE]

I may be slightly drunk with one eye closed so I Concentrate. . Please ignore JK during this time. 

Wheres my invite! I'd much rather be drinking that sitting at work with a headache.

 

[ChebyshevII PE PMP]

Man, I don't know what I'm doing, but I've successfully gotten two people to change their votes with one post.

(Thanks, @SaltySteve. I won't make you regret it)

 

[DLD PE]

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Yesterday there was (I think) a 3 way tie, with me on chopping block. I had not voted, and did not vote.
DuranDuran voted to break this tie. The person he voted to lynch (Lycee I believe) ended up being town. Duran was then night killed. 
I was active when time was called. If I were mafia I would have changed the night kill from Duran to someone else, since Duran's tie-breaking vote TO a townie makes him look suspicious/mafia side. 

Like I said, circumstantial.

mini dive on @Roarbark

There was a three-way tie in the final hour last night. Between @LyceeFruit PE, @Roarbark, @ChebyshevII PE

Neither @Roarbark or @LyceeFruit PE had voted at that point. @ChebyshevII PE was among the voters in the tie.

Lycee was a townie.

Let's explore this from @Roarbark's viewpoint:

He is active and threatened in a tie. He could vote for @ChebyshevII PE or @LyceeFruit PE to break the tie. Or go with 2/3 odds of success. 

Assume that @Roarbark is townie.

If he votes for @ChebyshevII PE, then an active @ChebyshevII PE votes for him our of self-preservation. Vote is now roar 3, cheb 3, his odds decease to 50/50 for a tie

Or he votes for @LyceeFruit PE, vote is now lycee 3,  roar 2, cheb 2. It's more reliable, but @LyceeFruit PE could sign on vote for him or cheb out of self preservation. Assume equal weighting, and he has 75% chance of success. He if gamed it out and assumed that nothing else pertured the system, then this scenario is his best play.

But not everyone games things out, but he also wasn't given much time to game things out either.

Assume @Roarbark is mafia.

The odds above still apply if he votes for @ChebyshevII PE or @LyceeFruit PE. But there is also the possibility that he doesn't want to vote for cheb because he is also maf. If that's the case then voting for @LyceeFruit PE is his statistical best play. The intangible here is that maybe he doesn't want to establish a connection with @ChebyshevII PE, although his vote could have been easily spun as a CYA vote.

Now of course, the tie was broken quickly by @DuranDuran. Which may not have given @Roarbark the opportunity to make a move. We'll never know what may have happened if @DuranDuran hadn't switched. In actuality last night, it looked like @Roarbark held back just in case he needed to do something.

tl;dr The event analysis is inconclusive. 

 

[RBHeadge PE]

They're on RBs list and I was already suspicious the past two rounds. Sorry to waffle like that.

To be clear, that's not a list of people I suspect of being mafia. It's a list with idk-missing-data at the bottom. FWIW, I can never get a read on @jean15paul_PE because his play style changes so often; I have no baseline townie behavior for him. If he's mafia, he'll occasionally tip his hand. I haven't seen that yet. 

 

[RBHeadge PE]

@tj_PE For now I voting for @chart94 again.