EB Mafia

[DLD PE]

mini dive on @Roarbark

There was a three-way tie in the final hour last night. Between @LyceeFruit PE, @Roarbark, @ChebyshevII PE

Neither @Roarbark or @LyceeFruit PE had voted at that point. @ChebyshevII PE was among the voters in the tie.

Lycee was a townie.

Let's explore this from @Roarbark's viewpoint:

He is active and threatened in a tie. He could vote for @ChebyshevII PE or @LyceeFruit PE to break the tie. Or go with 2/3 odds of success. 

Assume that @Roarbark is townie.

If he votes for @ChebyshevII PE, then an active @ChebyshevII PE votes for him our of self-preservation. Vote is now roar 3, cheb 3, his odds decease to 50/50 for a tie

Or he votes for @LyceeFruit PE, vote is now lycee 3,  roar 2, cheb 2. It's more reliable, but @LyceeFruit PE could sign on vote for him or cheb out of self preservation. Assume equal weighting, and he has 75% chance of success. He if gamed it out and assumed that nothing else pertured the system, then this scenario is his best play.

But not everyone games things out, but he also wasn't given much time to game things out either.

Assume @Roarbark is mafia.

The odds above still apply if he votes for @ChebyshevII PE or @LyceeFruit PE. But there is also the possibility that he doesn't want to vote for cheb because he is also maf. If that's the case then voting for @LyceeFruit PE is his statistical best play. The intangible here is that maybe he doesn't want to establish a connection with @ChebyshevII PE, although his vote could have been easily spun as a CYA vote.

Now of course, the tie was broken quickly by @DuranDuran. Which may not have given @Roarbark the opportunity to make a move. We'll never know what may have happened if @DuranDuran hadn't switched. In actuality last night, it looked like @Roarbark held back just in case he needed to do something.

tl;dr The event analysis is inconclusive. 

So far no one said today dead people couldn't comment.  I feel the need to comment and clarify my actions last night.  I will not reveal my role.

See below from page 673.  This is 2 posts before my vote.  Before I voted, it was my understanding there was a 2-way tie between @LyceeFruit PE and @ChebyshevII PE with @Roarbark having three votes.  There were a couple of players I had my eye on, and I wasn't feeling good about the outcome.  My intention was to generate a reaction from other players and see the outcome.  If there had been a 3-way tie as @RBHeadge PE and others have suggested, I might have voted differently or not at all.  I was looking at the below update when I voted.

 

[Tiger15]

To be clear, that's not a list of people I suspect of being mafia. It's a list with idk-missing-data at the bottom. FWIW, I can never get a read on @jean15paul_PE because his play style changes so often; I have no baseline townie behavior for him. If he's mafia, he'll occasionally tip his hand. I haven't seen that yet. 

I would like to request more analysis on @jean15paul_PE 

My play style changes so often? I thought I was pretty consistent, and that made me hard to read... or something like that. LOL
I don't even know what my play style is. If I'm a townie I try to be genuine; if I'm mafia I try to be genuine. (I used the word genuine and not honest very intentionally). If anything has changed about my play, it's that I'm learning how other people react to certain votes in different situations. I've learned that CYA protect yourself votes don't seem to work very often, so I've started just following my suspicions.

 

[Tiger15]

Today I learned... you don't get a notification when you tag yourself.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

So far no one said today dead people couldn't comment.  I feel the need to comment and clarify my actions last night.  I will not reveal my role.

See below from page 673.  This is 2 posts before my vote.  Before I voted, it was my understanding there was a 2-way tie between @LyceeFruit PE and @ChebyshevII PE with @Roarbark having three votes.  There were a couple of players I had my eye on, and I wasn't feeling good about the outcome.  My intention was to generate a reaction from other players and see the outcome.  If there had been a 3-way tie as @RBHeadge PE and others have suggested, I might have voted differently or not at all.  I was looking at the below update when I voted.

View attachment 17852

Things were moving fast that evening, I believe everyone was posting with a delay.

 

[tj_PE]

2 @JayKay PE (cheb, chart)

2 @ChebyshevII PE (jk, square)

2 @squaretaper LIT AF PE (roar, jp)

1 @chart94 (rb)

1 @jean15paul_PE (salty)

 

[DLD PE]

Things were moving fast that evening, I believe everyone was posting with a delay.

True, and I already knew ahead of time when I voted I would more than likely not check back in or be able to re-vote.  My intention was to generate movement on the chess board (metaphor only, nothing cryptic about my 'check' post) and evaluate or be able to give something to the team to evaluate.  I felt we had so little to go on I wanted to shuffle the board a little, so to speak.  However, I did not want to announce publicly that my post would be my last for the night.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

I would like to request more analysis on @jean15paul_PE 

My play style changes so often? I thought I was pretty consistent, and that made me hard to read... or something like that. LOL
I don't even know what my play style is. If I'm a townie I try to be genuine; if I'm mafia I try to be genuine. (I used the word genuine and not honest very intentionally). If anything has changed about my play, it's that I'm learning how other people react to certain votes in different situations. I've learned that CYA protect yourself votes don't seem to work very often, so I've started just following my suspicions.

I can honestly say that if you were representing EB in the tourney, you would either be the first guy voted out or you would take the trophy. I don't see any other outcome. 

I could have phrased my earlier statement better. But the underlying point is that you don't have strong baseline for behavior in any role. It makes it tough to read you. It doesn't help that your occasionally make pro-mafia statements.

 

[DLD PE]

2 @JayKay PE (cheb, chart)

2 @ChebyshevII PE (jk, square)

2 @squaretaper LIT AF PE (roar, jp)

1 @chart94 (rb)

1 @jean15paul_PE (salty)

There's a 3-way tie! 

 

[RBHeadge PE]

True, and I already knew ahead of time when I voted I would more than likely not check back in or be able to re-vote.  My intention was to generate movement on the chess board (metaphor only, nothing cryptic about my 'check' post) and evaluate or be able to give something to the team to evaluate.  I felt we had so little to go on I wanted to shuffle the board a little, so to speak.  However, I did not want to announce publicly that my post would be my last for the night.

I was hoping for a similar outcome too from the vote last night. We need/ed more data. Things looked promising when we had a three way tie.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

There's a 3-way tie! 

yeah, between three players I think are townies...

 

[DLD PE]

I was hoping for a similar outcome too from the vote last night. We need/ed more data. Things looked promising when we had a three way tie.

I hope I didn't mess things up!

 

[RBHeadge PE]

I hope I didn't mess things up!

I doubt it was that impactful in the long run. The important thing is that we need to get a mafiosa tonight or tomorrow.

 

[Tiger15]

I can honestly say that if you were representing EB in the tourney, you would either be the first guy voted out or you would take the trophy. I don't see any other outcome. 

I could have phrased my earlier statement better. But the underlying point is that you don't have strong baseline for behavior in any role. It makes it tough to read you. It doesn't help that your occasionally make pro-mafia statements.

My guess is that I'd be the first one voted out.


I do enjoy being mafia. It's more fun than being a townie. It's a rush.
(Saying that, now I'm definitely dead.)
I really am a townie this round.
I do want to try out the mafia role with these tourney rules. I have interesting ideas. Don't know if we'll be playing tourney rules after the actual tournament.

 

[Roarbark]

@tj_PE I change my vote to @chart94 (Edit 5/5 for management)

 

[chart94 PE]

do we have a vote update?!? how did i get on the board all of a sudden?!

 

[DLD PE]

do we have a vote update?!? how did i get on the board all of a sudden?!

Maybe you reached the 8th rank and you got promoted.

 

[DLD PE]

Disclaimer:  The blue highlighted cell means nothing.  It's just where it ended up after the last entry.

 

[Tiger15]

Maybe you reached the 8th rank and you got promoted.

  If one pawn could move along to reach the 8th rank, to resurrect / with the grace of a queen she will receive and reflect





Edit: No one probably cares, but...
J-Live's lyrics can be kinda ... abstruse upon first listen, so

Verse 1: Get the third eye i.e. the mind
about a relationship based around intellect and growth

Verse 2: Get the third leg i.e. the ****
about a relations based only around ***

Verse 3: Get the third finger i.e. **** you
about a breakup

People disagree if it's supposed to be the decline and end of a single relationship or if it's supposed to be 3 separate relationships due to conflicting lyrics in the song. I prefer the first interpretation

 

[blybrook PE]

Screw the HOA!

 

[ChebyshevII PE PMP]

16 minutes ago, jean15paul_PE said:

  If one pawn could move along to reach the 8th rank, to resurrect / with the grace of a queen she will receive and reflect

Now that's what I call good vibes!