EB Mafia

[Tiger15]

The plot thickens

(1/5) or (3/5) if late night Friday posts count.

 

[tj_PE]

so, disconnected from rb's analysis, based on chart being maf, my initial suspicion of square being maf (because of chart's vote on first lynch day) is still lingering in my brain

 

[tj_PE]

I saved JK Thursday night. Per the rules, I received affirmation that my doctor attempt was successful. IIRC the mafia can't nightkill one of their own, so it's confirmed that JK is not mafia.

see there's so much info you really gotta read all the **** to absorb it. can't just come in and vote. lol. thanks

 

[tj_PE]

@ChebyshevII PE I vote for @MadamPirate PE

 

[RBHeadge PE]

see there's so much info you really gotta read all the **** to absorb it. can't just come in and vote. lol. thanks

And this is why I wanted some practice before the tourney. I dgaf if I mess up during practice. Now is the time to make mistakes. I've been keeping a running list of lessons learned.

 

[JayKay PE]

First: I'm not lying.

Second: I still detected motion by or around MP.

In the tourney I won't have the benefit of knowing the priors of the other players. I was able to shortcut my suspect list in this game by by using three players past behavior on three players: TJ, Square, Jean. The latter I can feel more comfortable based on your uncanny knowledge. I took a calculated risk on Friday to reveal certain bits of information to the town in the event that I was nightkilled. We were very close to having it solved and I didn't want to have that advantage lost due to my removal from the game. Later that evening I revealed the source (my being a JoAT) when it looked like I was going to be lynched - thereby making it official. 

5/5

Is it knowledge?  Or dumb luck (it was def dumb luck with sighing the first lynching, and vhab was just giving off mafia vibes)?  Either way, I don't think MP is mafia this round even if you detected motion (you used motion detector, right?).

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Yes it was "motion detector".

 

[Tiger15]

And this is why I wanted some practice before the tourney. I dgaf if I mess up during practice. Now is the time to make mistakes. I've been keeping a running list of lessons learned.

I'd love to see a log of each JoaT's abilities and what they learned from each investigation.

(2/5) or (4/5)

 

[Tiger15]

I guess I need to stop playing with yall and go to work. The commute from the bedroom or bathroom to the living room is killer.

(3/5) or (5/5)

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Night 1; Lycee; Motion Detector; No motion detected

Night 2: Duran; tracker;  Duran did not use a night action

Night 3: JK; doctor; successfully saved JayKay from being nightkilled

Night 4: MP; Motion Detector; Motion Detected

 

[RBHeadge PE]

I guess I need to stop playing with yall and go to work. The commute from the bedroom or bathroom to the living room is killer.

(3/5) or (5/5)

Actual footage from @jean15paul_PE's commute this morning:

 

[JayKay PE]

@ChebyshevII PE, as of right now I vote for @squaretaper LIT AF PE

 

[txjennah PE]

Lots to catch up on.  Thanks for the in depth analysis @RBHeadge PE.  

@ChebyshevII PE I am going to vote for @MadamPirate PE for now, subject to change with more information.

1/5

 

[txjennah PE]

Husband is on summer break and I WANT TO BE ON SUMMER BREAK

2/5

 

[txjennah PE]

I had these grand plans of ignoring my email so I could focus on deliverables this AM, but I'm still responding to things from emails soooo yeah that plan hasn't materialized like I wanted.

3/5

 

[txjennah PE]

Memorial Day weekend was great and it was in the 80s and SUNNY and I went outside and it actually FELT WARM and I was sooo happyyyyyyy

4/5

 

[txjennah PE]

BYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

5/5

 

[MadamPirate PE]

On Friday my initial vote was randomly selected among the three persons of interest. My intention was not to necessarily keep a vote against that person, but to drive a three way tie among them to see how they vote. I would use game theory analysis on the votes of those three to determine who is most likely to be mafia. ex: assume three scenarios, each one with a different assumed townie of the three, then figure out if their votes were logical and if they were trying to protect anyone.

I encourage others to try this analysis too.

Ideally this exercise would establish two mafia players, and I would vote or whip a vote for the player most susceptible to be lynched that night. Luckily it was mostly successful. On Friday night, the analysis pointed to @chart94 being mafia, @txjennah PE unlikely to be mafia, and @MadamPirate PE leaning mafia. 

Based on the vote count at the time, the highest chance of success was to go after @chart94. While it wasn't smooth going, the vote worked. The second part of the plan was to motion detect @MadamPirate PE.  It detected motion.

Aaaaannnndd this is where is gets complicated @jean15paul_PE

I should have used the Tracker ability. I'm glad I made this mistake now, and not in the tournament. I still have not mastered the subtitles of this version of the game. 

@MadamPirate PE was not nightkilled, so without any other context this leads to three scenarios:

1. she is mafia;
   
2. she is the other JoAT;
   
3. she was subject to an action from the other JoAT.
   

With context the most likely scenario is that she is the last member of the mafia. It's supported by the various votes on Friday. I judge scenario 2 as unlikely, since another player has aleady wont this rounds "Carnac the Magnificent Award" by demonstrating an uncanny level of awareness of the other players.  Further (2) and (3) could be ruled out if the other JoAT reveals themselves *cough* herself *cough* and state if they did not performed an action on MP. Of course, even if the other JoAT performed an action on MP, it could provide an ambiguous result if the other JoAT did motion detection too or doctor. Similarly, options 1 and 3 are not mutually exclusive.

We are in or very near the endgame, so the other JoAT shouldn't fear for themselves now. They  could come forward with any other useful information. 

Honestly, if I hadn't used the wrong JoAT ability on Friday, I'd be posting this gif right now:

With that said, I'm confident enough in the available evidence. @ChebyshevII PE I vote for @MadamPirate PE.

I'm pretty sure this is at least 3/5, but I'll restart at 1/5 with full confidence that I'll have at least four more posts today.

I am going to straight up say that I am not the JOAT and I am not mafia.

Lynch me if you want, but I am a townie.

(1/5)

 

[MadamPirate PE]

A lynch of MadamPirate is a win for the mafia.

2/5

 

[JayKay PE]

I am going to straight up say that I am not the JOAT and I am not mafia.

Lynch me if you want, but I am a townie.

(1/5)

I believe you.  I don't think you're mafia.  I def think something is fishy with RBH's analysis on how you must be mafia.