EB Mafia

[txjennah PE]

ok, so I'm going to write this analysis as if I were a neutral third party observer. I sort feel that way because I've been so busy with RL work, and helping out the waiting no0bz.

This analysis uses the best available public knowledge as of noon today. I will not (read: can't) include anything that may or may not have been going on outside of this thread.

mafia = lycee; not mafia = cheb . The roles of the other players are unknown at this time.

I will assume that the mafia behaves rationally, insofar as they wouldn't vote for one of their own when it mattered.

So here's my analysis of yesterday's vote:

first vote: 

cheb votes for square; cheb was not mafia so assume this was a blind shot. No determination can be made about any player

second vote:

leggo votes for lycee; Since lycee is mafia, and mafia wouldn't put one of their own in a position to be eliminated, lets call leggo=not mafia

third vote:

txjen votes square; Below I'll show that square is not mafia, but in this case and time, we can't confirm that txjen knew this (she could be townie taking a random shot, or mafia protecting mafia), so txjen=?

fourth vote

tj votes txjen; at this moment there is nothing in the public sphere which by itself that can be inferred from this vote.

fifth vote

square votes lycee; mafia won't put one of their own in a position to be eliminated - which is what this vote will do, so square=not mafia

sixth vote

lycee votes square; no new conclusions

seventh vote

tj changes vote to lycee; mafia won't put one of their own in a position to be eliminated - which this vote has the potential to do, so tj=not mafia

eighth vote

rb votes lycee; mafia won't vote out one of their own, this is a tiebreaking vote under any cicumstance so rb=not mafia 

ninth vote

bly votes jean; nothing can be cleanly inferred from this vote

tenth vote

cheb changes vote to lycee; OBE

So based on this sequence of events. We can confirm without a cop that the following players are not mafia:

leggo, square, tj, rb

Everyone else is still a question mark

Based on the above, the narrative that txjen is providing is consistent with her being a townie who took a random shot. However it is also consistent with the theory that she was mafia and trying to protect her fellow mafiosa lycee. Either theory is valid using logical inference. One would have to use other, potentially less reliable, methods to make a determination on txjen's motives for her vote and her role in the game.

Dang this is impressive! Thank you for pulling this together for all of us!

I really hope that I've been able to present my case that I'm a townie, but leave my fate to the rest of the voters.

 

[Tiger15]

ok, so I'm going to write this analysis as if I were a neutral third party observer. I sort feel that way because I've been so busy with RL work, and helping out the waiting no0bz.

This analysis uses the best available public knowledge as of noon today. I will not (read: can't) include anything that may or may not have been going on outside of this thread.

mafia = lycee; not mafia = cheb . The roles of the other players are unknown at this time.

I will assume that the mafia behaves rationally, insofar as they wouldn't vote for one of their own when it mattered.

So here's my analysis of yesterday's vote:

first vote: 

cheb votes for square; cheb was not mafia so assume this was a blind shot. No determination can be made about any player

second vote:

leggo votes for lycee; Since lycee is mafia, and mafia wouldn't put one of their own in a position to be eliminated, lets call leggo=not mafia

third vote:

txjen votes square; Below I'll show that square is not mafia, but in this case and time, we can't confirm that txjen knew this (she could be townie taking a random shot, or mafia protecting mafia), so txjen=?

fourth vote

tj votes txjen; at this moment there is nothing in the public sphere which by itself that can be inferred from this vote.

fifth vote

square votes lycee; mafia won't put one of their own in a position to be eliminated - which is what this vote will do, so square=not mafia

sixth vote

lycee votes square; no new conclusions

seventh vote

tj changes vote to lycee; mafia won't put one of their own in a position to be eliminated - which this vote has the potential to do, so tj=not mafia

eighth vote

rb votes lycee; mafia won't vote out one of their own, this is a tiebreaking vote under any cicumstance so rb=not mafia 

ninth vote

bly votes jean; nothing can be cleanly inferred from this vote

tenth vote

cheb changes vote to lycee; OBE

So based on this sequence of events. We can confirm without a cop that the following players are not mafia:

leggo, square, tj, rb

Everyone else is still a question mark

Based on the above, the narrative that txjen is providing is consistent with her being a townie who took a random shot. However it is also consistent with the theory that she was mafia and trying to protect her fellow mafiosa lycee. Either theory is valid using logical inference. One would have to use other, potentially less reliable, methods to make a determination on txjen's motives for her vote and her role in the game.

Regardless of anything else. Today I learned that @RBHeadge PE is actually REALLY good at this game.

 

[Tiger15]

...

cheb changes vote to lycee; OBE

...

What is OBE?
@RBHeadge PE

 

[JayKay PE]

Regardless of anything else. Today I learned that @RBHeadge PE is actually REALLY good at this game.

This is a well established fact. 
I like it when @RBHeadge PE gives statistical analysis during the game. 

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Regardless of anything else. Today I learned that @RBHeadge PE is actually REALLY good at this game.

I don't know about that. I've only survived twice....

 

[RBHeadge PE]

What is OBE?
@RBHeadge PE

Overcome By Events

i.e. moot point, doesn't matter anymore

 

[leggo PE]

Humble is as humble does!

 

[RBHeadge PE]

So based on this sequence of events. We can confirm without a cop that the following players are not mafia:

leggo, square, tj, rb

I hope the cop is seeing this too. If the cop is not on that list, and reaches out, it would create a group with 5-7 known not-mafia. That's endgame alliance numbers.

 

[blybrook PE]

I hope the cop is seeing this too. If the cop is not on that list, and reaches out, it would create a group with 5-7 known not-mafia. That's endgame alliance numbers.

The cop could be seeing that as they could be one of those listed. My vote yesterday was a shot in the dark first day vote.

I am Redneck Mafia, no way involved with the mafia of this round. I say feed all dem mafioso's to the chipper!

 

[leggo PE]

Everyone's first day vote is a shot in the dark besides mafia members.

The cop doesn't even get to have an inkling about anything until the second day, at the earliest. At least, that's how it was when I was the cop a few rounds ago. @vhab49_PE would know best for obvious reasons.

 

[Audi Driver P.E.]

ok, so I'm going to write this analysis as if I were a neutral third party observer. I sort feel that way because I've been so busy with RL work, and helping out the waiting no0bz.

This analysis uses the best available public knowledge as of noon today. I will not (read: can't) include anything that may or may not have been going on outside of this thread.

mafia = lycee; not mafia = cheb . The roles of the other players are unknown at this time.

I will assume that the mafia behaves rationally, insofar as they wouldn't vote for one of their own when it mattered.

So here's my analysis of yesterday's vote:

first vote: 

cheb votes for square; cheb was not mafia so assume this was a blind shot. No determination can be made about any player

second vote:

leggo votes for lycee; Since lycee is mafia, and mafia wouldn't put one of their own in a position to be eliminated, lets call leggo=not mafia

third vote:

txjen votes square; Below I'll show that square is not mafia, but in this case and time, we can't confirm that txjen knew this (she could be townie taking a random shot, or mafia protecting mafia), so txjen=?

fourth vote

tj votes txjen; at this moment there is nothing in the public sphere which by itself that can be inferred from this vote.

fifth vote

square votes lycee; mafia won't put one of their own in a position to be eliminated - which is what this vote will do, so square=not mafia

sixth vote

lycee votes square; no new conclusions

seventh vote

tj changes vote to lycee; mafia won't put one of their own in a position to be eliminated - which this vote has the potential to do, so tj=not mafia

eighth vote

rb votes lycee; mafia won't vote out one of their own, this is a tiebreaking vote under any cicumstance so rb=not mafia 

ninth vote

bly votes jean; nothing can be cleanly inferred from this vote

tenth vote

cheb changes vote to lycee; OBE

So based on this sequence of events. We can confirm without a cop that the following players are not mafia:

leggo, square, tj, rb

Everyone else is still a question mark

Based on the above, the narrative that txjen is providing is consistent with her being a townie who took a random shot. However it is also consistent with the theory that she was mafia and trying to protect her fellow mafiosa lycee. Either theory is valid using logical inference. One would have to use other, potentially less reliable, methods to make a determination on txjen's motives for her vote and her role in the game.

It's like you read my mind!

 

[Roarbark]

Okay, I went back and fact-checked you, and this is what I found:

@txjennah PE: 4 (voted for by: @jean15paul_PE, @leggo PE, @tj_PE, and @RBHeadge PE)

@NikR_PE: 1 (voted for by @blybrook PE)

@jean15paul_PE: 2 (voted for by @txjennah PE and @squaretaper PE)

@blybrook PE: 1 (voted for by @Roarbark)

In summary, I think you missed Roarbark's vote for blybrook. Vote is recorded here: 

 

Wasn't sure if RB's tally was just first day, or included second day. I noticed I was missing too. Didn't vote 1st day, Voted bly 2nd day. 

 

 

[blybrook PE]

Okay, I went back and fact-checked you, and this is what I found:

@txjennah PE: 4 (voted for by: @jean15paul_PE, @leggo PE, @tj_PE, and @RBHeadge PE)

@NikR_PE: 1 (voted for by @blybrook PE)

@jean15paul_PE: 2 (voted for by @txjennah PE and @squaretaper PE)

@blybrook PE: 1 (voted for by @Roarbark)

In summary, I think you missed Roarbark's vote for blybrook. Vote is recorded here: 

 

And I will stick by my earlier vote.

I get why @Roarbark voted for me, he doesn't like the Redneck Mafia any more than the mafioso's that are destroying our town. At least he voted!

 

[Booo]

ok, so I'm going to write this analysis as if I were a neutral third party observer. I sort feel that way because I've been so busy with RL work, and helping out the waiting no0bz.

This analysis uses the best available public knowledge as of noon today. I will not (read: can't) include anything that may or may not have been going on outside of this thread.

mafia = lycee; not mafia = cheb . The roles of the other players are unknown at this time.

I will assume that the mafia behaves rationally, insofar as they wouldn't vote for one of their own when it mattered.

So here's my analysis of yesterday's vote:

first vote: 

cheb votes for square; cheb was not mafia so assume this was a blind shot. No determination can be made about any player

second vote:

leggo votes for lycee; Since lycee is mafia, and mafia wouldn't put one of their own in a position to be eliminated, lets call leggo=not mafia

third vote:

txjen votes square; Below I'll show that square is not mafia, but in this case and time, we can't confirm that txjen knew this (she could be townie taking a random shot, or mafia protecting mafia), so txjen=?

fourth vote

tj votes txjen; at this moment there is nothing in the public sphere which by itself that can be inferred from this vote.

fifth vote

square votes lycee; mafia won't put one of their own in a position to be eliminated - which is what this vote will do, so square=not mafia

sixth vote

lycee votes square; no new conclusions

seventh vote

tj changes vote to lycee; mafia won't put one of their own in a position to be eliminated - which this vote has the potential to do, so tj=not mafia

eighth vote

rb votes lycee; mafia won't vote out one of their own, this is a tiebreaking vote under any cicumstance so rb=not mafia 

ninth vote

bly votes jean; nothing can be cleanly inferred from this vote

tenth vote

cheb changes vote to lycee; OBE

So based on this sequence of events. We can confirm without a cop that the following players are not mafia:

leggo, square, tj, rb

Everyone else is still a question mark

Based on the above, the narrative that txjen is providing is consistent with her being a townie who took a random shot. However it is also consistent with the theory that she was mafia and trying to protect her fellow mafiosa lycee. Either theory is valid using logical inference. One would have to use other, potentially less reliable, methods to make a determination on txjen's motives for her vote and her role in the game.

I agree with this analysis. However i feel that late votes against lycee do not confirm that the voters were townies. I previous games mafia did vote for their own when they knew they were gonna be lynched (i remember roar doing that once).

Anyways txj may be mafia. But @chart94 i vote for @jean15paul_PE as he has been trying very hard to convince me to not vote for him in dm's. Too early for this.

 

[chart94 PE]

Ok so I got 

3 for @jean15paul_PE

4 for @txjennah PE

1 for @blybrook PE

1 for @NikR_PE

 

[txjennah PE]

I agree with this analysis. However i feel that late votes against lycee do not confirm that the voters were townies. I previous games mafia did vote for their own when they knew they were gonna be lynched (i remember roar doing that once).

Anyways txj may be mafia. But @chart94 i vote for @jean15paul_PE as he has been trying very hard to convince me to not vote for him in dm's. Too early for this.

I got a DM too! My vote stands.

 

[Roarbark]

I agree with this analysis. However i feel that late votes against lycee do not confirm that the voters were townies. I previous games mafia did vote for their own when they knew they were gonna be lynched (i remember roar doing that once).

Agree. I remember doing that . Real tiebreaker votes matter more for getting info. 

 

[Booo]

Agree. I remember doing that . Real tiebreaker votes matter more for getting info. 

so last person to vote lycee was cheb. But we know he is townie. The one before was RB. @RBHeadge PE are you mafia and did you write this to put yourself in the clear?

OTOH Its surprising that jean would DM TXJennah. I thought he would rather contact everyone else and get them to vote for her. So @txjennah PE are you mafia?

 

[txjennah PE]

so last person to vote lycee was cheb. But we know he is townie. The one before was RB. @RBHeadge PE are you mafia and did you write this to put yourself in the clear?

OTOH Its surprising that jean would DM TXJennah. I thought he would rather contact everyone else and get them to vote for her. So @txjennah PE are you mafia?

No dude, just a townie. 

 

[RBHeadge PE]

so last person to vote lycee was cheb. But we know he is townie. The one before was RB. @RBHeadge PE are you mafia and did you write this to put yourself in the clear?

I knew I should have included the vote tallies as I went along the voting history.

I was the tiebreaking vote, making it lycee 4, square 3.

tj changing her vote to lycee made it tie between lycee and square

Go back and retrace it all,or follow along in the thread if you don't believe me.

I am a regular townie.