One thing I don't understand is why the number of potential infections in the US is expected to be so high, when in China the peak seems to have already occurred and the total is around 80,000. There's an article on NY times,
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-trump-response.html, that lets you adjust a chart to see the impact of early interventions and aggressive tactics to reduce the number of cases. The lowest I can get the peak number is around 500,000, with 50,000 deaths. (If you don't do anything this tool estimates about 100,000,000 people will get infected and 1,000,000 will die.)
Why would we expect to get so many more cases here than China did at the peak, when they have a lot more people and were caught off guard by this, while we've had time to get prepared? What am I missing?
Obviously this tool makes some assumptions, and I know China has taken some drastic measures, but these numbers seem way off.