~~**-- The Weather Thread --**~~

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So.... humid....

I'm soaked through right now, and you can see where my forearms have been on my desk.

 
I mowed the yard Saturday. much nicer to mow at 60 degrees than 100. didn't even break a sweat.

 
Brrrrrr. Friggin' project should've been done months ago, standing out in this cold wind is less than pleasant. At least ski season is here.

 
Weather's nice here in the far western pacific. We had a presentation from a climatologist recently who said that all the recent global climate models are now confirming what we are seeing here with respect to global warming: it is NOT causing more tropical cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons). Rather, the changing temperatures have resulted in a situation where it is much harder for storms to form up, and the last several years seem to be following this trend. This year the Pacific is in an all-time record for least number of tropical cyclones.

This may or may not apply to the Atlantic; I can't remember what he said (all I cared about was my neighborhood). But the interesting thing he told is is how urgently "some" climatologists are suppressing this info, not because it goes against the notion that the earth is warming, which it is, but because it goes against their earlier predictions of what that might mean, and they are terrified of losing public support on the now-proven incorrectness of the predictions that storms would become more frequent and stronger.

 
Climatologists are a bunch of jerk wads anyways. After Katrina, it was all, "Storms are going to get worse!", "There will be many more storms next year!", and "Prepare for 538 named storms next year!". Just looking for funding... which we know how that played out.

****ers.

 
^That's exactly what this guy is saying - "those" guys don't want the word to get out that their predictions were wrong.

It's not that the earth isn't warming - the data showing that it is is incontrovertible (unless you're a liberal arts major working for Fox news). It's just that these guys can't predict what that means for us worth shit. Sea level rise aside. Climate - ???? very difficult to predict. In this case, for the western Pacific at least, it is turning out to suppress hurricane formation.

(which for us is both a good and a bad thing - but that's another story. I'm just happy my roof will be at a little less risk)

 
Wow it's cold this morning. 12 degrees at my house at 6 AM. It is supposed to to be sunny and warm into the 50s today.

 
Interesting discussion of the current trend in tropical cyclones throughout the world, and the all-time record low activity here in the Pacific:

(this is from the November Pacific ENSO Update bulletin, a multi-agency product)

Tropical cyclone activity is normally reduced in the year that follows El Niño, and 2010 was no exception. The extreme reduction ofthe inactivity, however, was unusual, and follows a string of recent years (e.g., 2007 and 2008) with low activity. A recent posting

(October 10, 2010) by Ryan Maue (http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/) details the unusual lack of global TC activity:

“Update: Current Year-to-Date [10 October 2010] analysis of Northern Hemisphere and Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone

Energy (ACE) and Power Dissipation Index (PDI) has fallen even further than during the previous 3-years. The global activity is

at 33-year lows and at a historical record low where Typhoons form in the Western Pacific. …

While the North Atlantic has seen 15 tropical storms/hurricanes of various intensity, the Pacific basin as a whole is at historical lows!

In the Western North Pacific stretching from Guam to Japan and the Philippines and China, the current ACE value of 58 is the lowest

seen since reliable records became available (1945) and is 78% below normal. The next lowest was an ACE of 78 in 1998.”
It also had this interesting little bit of trivia related to the long spell of good weather we have had, which I had not heard of:

On Guam, there have been twodeaths this year from trees falling on people during fair

weather. This is a sad irony, as during the active tropical

cyclone seasons of the 1990s and early 2000s, there were

no deaths on Guam attributed to falling trees or other wind

-blown debris.
 
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