This is a quick copy from the morning of day 2 last week. Most of the odds remain the same.
So there are seven players remaining: including 1-3 mafia, 2-4 regular townies, the doctor may be alive or dead, the cop may be alive or dead.
@RBHeadge PE
@tj_PE
@NikR
@ChebyshevII_PE
@ChaosMuppetPE
@ptatohed
@JayKay0914
The game is still going on so the 0<mafia<4.
The cop may or may not have survived the night. If s/he did, s/he knows at least one trusted townie OR one irregular person (mafia or the doctor). If the cop knows a safe townie, s/he would be wise to start teaming with him/her.
The doctor may or may not have survived the night. If the doctor did survive, s/he choose poorly last night.
Day 2 Analysis:
Unless stated otherwise, I'm leaving out the events where the doctor guesses right. The event tree become too convoluted at this stage of the game with those probabilities and I have a day job, one that has me pretty busy this week. Similarly, I'm assuming blind guesses with no strategy at this stage of the game. So the probabilities listed below are conservative for the townies. In the later stages, strategy overwhelms the dice - but I don't have enough data to guess how those will play out at this stage of the game.
If mafia=3
9% of townie win on day 4/5. Including winning a high noon shootout scenario.
4% we keep picking right the next couple days, but lose the shootout.
26% we pick right tonight but wrong tomorrow night and lose the town.
46% the game is over in 22 hours if we pick wrong tonight and the doctor protects the wrong person overnight. 11% chance we pick wrong but the doctor guesses right and we live to fight another day
if mafia=2
40% we win. This involves picking right in the evening at least once, and winning shootout scenarios. We could win in as soon as Day 3, or it could drag into day 5
43% we never pick right and we lose the town. 17% we lose in shootouts. The game could be over in a couple nights or possibly last into Day 5.
if mafia=1
14% we pick right and outright win tonight.
63% chance we pick right in the coming days or win the shootout.
77% total townie win
23% chance mafia beats the dice and takes the town
So there are seven players remaining: including 1-3 mafia, 2-4 regular townies, the doctor may be alive or dead, the cop may be alive or dead.
@RBHeadge PE
@tj_PE
@NikR
@ChebyshevII_PE
@ChaosMuppetPE
@ptatohed
@JayKay0914
The game is still going on so the 0<mafia<4.
The cop may or may not have survived the night. If s/he did, s/he knows at least one trusted townie OR one irregular person (mafia or the doctor). If the cop knows a safe townie, s/he would be wise to start teaming with him/her.
The doctor may or may not have survived the night. If the doctor did survive, s/he choose poorly last night.
Day 2 Analysis:
Unless stated otherwise, I'm leaving out the events where the doctor guesses right. The event tree become too convoluted at this stage of the game with those probabilities and I have a day job, one that has me pretty busy this week. Similarly, I'm assuming blind guesses with no strategy at this stage of the game. So the probabilities listed below are conservative for the townies. In the later stages, strategy overwhelms the dice - but I don't have enough data to guess how those will play out at this stage of the game.
If mafia=3
9% of townie win on day 4/5. Including winning a high noon shootout scenario.
4% we keep picking right the next couple days, but lose the shootout.
26% we pick right tonight but wrong tomorrow night and lose the town.
46% the game is over in 22 hours if we pick wrong tonight and the doctor protects the wrong person overnight. 11% chance we pick wrong but the doctor guesses right and we live to fight another day
if mafia=2
40% we win. This involves picking right in the evening at least once, and winning shootout scenarios. We could win in as soon as Day 3, or it could drag into day 5
43% we never pick right and we lose the town. 17% we lose in shootouts. The game could be over in a couple nights or possibly last into Day 5.
if mafia=1
14% we pick right and outright win tonight.
63% chance we pick right in the coming days or win the shootout.
77% total townie win
23% chance mafia beats the dice and takes the town
