EB Mafia

[Roarbark]

Update: I realize now that I typically sleep away half of most of your work days. In the interest of keeping the game rolling, I've decided to announce night-happenings before I go to bed here in HI. 

A body has been found superglued to a cement block. The cement block was found at the bottom of a canal. The canal was filled with water. After some time at the coroner's, the body is finally identified as Mr. Cellophane. He finally stood out in a crowd. 
@chart94 was killed during the night.

(Note: All storytelling is mine, and shouldn't be taken as hints) 

 

[RBHeadge PE]

...okay catching up on everything I missed last night.

So there are seven players remaining: including 1-3 mafia, and the doctor

@RBHeadge PE

@tj_PE

@NikR

@ChebyshevII_PE

@ChaosMuppetPE

@ptatohed

The game is still going on so the 0<mafia<4.

In our infinitesimal wisdom we and a d3 lynched the cop. It's not clear if the cop received enough useful information for her ghost to posthumously identify mobsters or even form a group of trusted good guys. Not ideal.

Unless stated otherwise, I'm leaving out the events where the doctor finally guesses right. The event tree become too convoluted at this stage of the game with those probabilities and I have a day job... Similarly, I'm assuming blind guesses with no strategy. So the probabilities listed below are conservative for the townies. In the later stages, strategy overwhelms the dice - but I don't have enough data to guess how those will play out at this stage of the game.

If mafia=3

10% of townie win on day 4/5. Including winning a high noon shootout scenario.

7% we keep picking right the next couple days, but lose the shootout.

26% we pick right tonight but wrong tomorrow night and lose the town.

46% the game is over in 22 hours if we pick wrong tonight and the doctor protects the wrong person overnight. 11% chance we pick wrong but the doctor guesses right and we live to fight another day

if mafia=2

40% we win. This involves picking right in the evening at least once, and winning shootout scenarios. We could win in as soon as Day 3, or it could drag into day 5

43% we never pick right and we lose the town. 17% we lose in shootouts. The game could be over in a couple nights or possibly last into Day 5.

if mafia=1

14% we pick right and outright win tonight.

63% chance we pick right in the coming days or win the shootout.

77% total townie win

 

[tj_PE]

Am I allowed to answer???

would be extra suspicious if you added a  

 

[tj_PE]

@ChaosMuppetPE are you mafia?

 

[tj_PE]

@ChebyshevII_PE are you mafia?

 

[Booo]

I have a question. So far in all these games the first few rounds end up being random guesses. Later in the game sometimes coalitions emerge. I have never played this game before, so what is a good strategy to identify mafia in the early stages? @ChebyshevII_PE any suggestions?

Note: I will also be judging if you are mafia or townie based on your response  <_<

 

[ChebyshevII PE PMP]

I have a question. So far in all these games the first few rounds end up being random guesses. Later in the game sometimes coalitions emerge. I have never played this game before, so what is a good strategy to identify mafia in the early stages? @ChebyshevII_PE any suggestions?

Note: I will also be judging if you are mafia or townie based on your response  <_<

Well, in f2f games, I would look for clues in body language or inflections. But obviously, those are hard to do in a forum game, so all I can really look at is the chain of events and people’s wording.

 

[ChebyshevII PE PMP]

@ChebyshevII_PE are you mafia?

Negative.

 

[ChebyshevII PE PMP]

This looks awfully suspicious:

 

[tj_PE]

based on my super scientific reasoning, I suspect I feel scared to share my suspicions because i might be killed

 

[ChebyshevII PE PMP]

Am I allowed to answer???

This also looks suspicious. But @tj_PE wondered the same thing during the first game. Almost made everyone suspect she was Mafia. (She wasn’t)

 

[ChebyshevII PE PMP]

@Roarbark I vote @Roarbark. Definitely mafia again.

 

[Booo]

@Roarbark I vote @Roarbark. Definitely mafia again.

But his rank says "definitely not mafia". Such confusing times.

 

[Booo]

Should we stick to the idea that the quiet ones are mafia. 60% of the time it works every time. 

 

[tj_PE]

Should we stick to the idea that the quiet ones are mafia. 60% of the time it works every time. 

that's what I'm thinking

 

[Booo]

that's what I'm thinking

Vote for ptato or chaos.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

@Roarbark I'm voting for @Audi driver, P.E. again

 

[Roarbark]

I'll be "in the field" most of the day today. If internet works in field trailer I should be able to sneak away for a bit at lynching time. 

Good luck everyone, happy lynching.  (   @tj_PE which is more passive aggressive? "" vs 'slightly smiling smiley').

 

[ChebyshevII PE PMP]

K, @Roarbark I’m voting for @ChaosMuppetPE again

 

[chart94 PE]

Update: I realize now that I typically sleep away half of most of your work days. In the interest of keeping the game rolling, I've decided to announce night-happenings before I go to bed here in HI. 

A body has been found superglued to a cement block. The cement block was found at the bottom of a canal. The canal was filled with water. After some time at the coroner's, the body is finally identified as Mr. Cellophane. He finally stood out in a crowd. 
@chart94 was killed during the night.

(Note: All storytelling is mine, and shouldn't be taken as hints) 

Well at least I finally got noticed... Mr. Cellophane's Ghost will now be haunting the rest