EB Mafia

[Tiger15]

Warning: Incoming long game theory discussion below.

This discussion is not comprehensive, and I am intentionally leaving out some tactics and tells that I would find useful is determining or hiding alignments.


Not necessarily. Generally speaking it's an extra investigator for the town which is always helpful to the townies and should be kept around as long as possible. A discernable mafia determination is always helpful to the town. A discernable townie determination is useful in establishing known townie lists and elimination potential mafia. POE is a valuable tool in this game.

The negative value Cassandra actions are them stating who is the doctor and cop. The doctor would be the immediate and only nightkill target to the detriment to the town. The cop may not be an automatic immediate target if the doctor was still alive as the doctor would immediately protect the cop for the rest of the game. The mafia may choose to devote their nightkills to easier targets.

tl;dr the Cassandra is a net townie asset.

That means that they should be a high value nightkill target for the mafia. But not the highest value target. The cop and occasionally the doctor may be a higher value target. Known townies, while lower value, are still safe targets. The Cassandra risks themselves by making themselves known publicly.


Yes, it would be completely on brand for me to do this. I'm always posting my reads everyday, starting around Day 2 or 3.

Me posting that someone is the cop or doc publicly is not on brand, and no one would be dumb enough to speculate on that in the public thread.

To be clear, I am not the Cassandra this round.


Yes and no. Posting excessive noise to conceal the Cassandra may not be the smart move in the early game. A careful cop, townie, or townie coalition may be scrutinizing those posts for hints. A critical mass will develop after a few days that may present a wealth of intel for the townie coalition.
Careful members of the mafia may also look for patterns too to discern who is a known townie and try to target them under the right circumstances. But the value added for the town by scrutinizing results should have a higher WPA than the mafia scrutinizing to kill potential-known townies.

I haven't gamed it out if its worth it for the town to try to protect the Cassandra via noise. My intuition says no but I could be wrong.



exactly! On the whole, it'd be an anchor dragging the mafia.


yep.



===============

ikr!

I value your insights. Thanks.

But lemme do something right quick.

@RBHeadge PE are you mafia?

 

[JayKay PE]

Current vote:

x2 @DuranDuran PE (structurenoel, chebs)
x1 @squaretaper LIT AF PE (Doth)
x1 @jean15paul_PE (becca)

 

[FlangeheadPEAZ]

I am scared to vote the first round and kick out COP Doc or Cassandra lol .... @JayKay PE I vote for @ChebyshevII PE... might change again

 

[Dothracki PE]

@tj_PE u maf?

 

[MeowMeow PE]

Eek! I'm nervous to vote! I have no clue who to vote for! Is it common for people to not vote on day 1?

 

[Dothracki PE]

Eek! I'm nervous to vote! I have no clue who to vote for! Is it common for people to not vote on day 1?

I don't think anyone starts getting a clue on who to vote for until day 3, sometimes day 2.

 

[DLD PE]

Eek! I'm nervous to vote! I have no clue who to vote for! Is it common for people to not vote on day 1?

Yes. Day 1 is mostly just random voting, except for scum who vote for me for no reason. Lol j/k...yeah Day 1 is mostly random.

 

[DLD PE]

I don't think anyone starts getting a clue on who to vote for until day 3, sometimes day 2.

I aspire to reach this level.

 

[squaretaper LIT AF PE]

@JayKay PE I vote for @DuranDuran PE just for old time's sake.

 

[DLD PE]

@JayKay PE I vote for @DuranDuran PE just for old time's sake.

 

[DLD PE]

Hmmm getting ready to leave work and won't be back on for a while, so:

I'm declaring right now I'm a regular townie. Veterans know I'm telling the truth, therefore the ones who maintain their vote against me remain highly suspicious.

Mafia++: @ChebyshevII PE , @squaretaper LIT AF PE

Lean Mafia: @structurenole15 (since he's still kind of new)

 

[DLD PE]

@JayKay PE I vote for @ChebyshevII PE for the time being in an attempt for self-preservation.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Eek! I'm nervous to vote! I have no clue who to vote for! Is it common for people to not vote on day 1?

Generally yes. As a rule I don't vote on day 1 unless absolutely needed.

 

[squaretaper LIT AF PE]

Hmmm getting ready to leave work and won't be back on for a while, so:

I'm declaring right now I'm a regular townie. Veterans know I'm telling the truth, therefore the ones who maintain their vote against me remain highly suspicious.

Mafia++: @ChebyshevII PE , @squaretaper LIT AF PE

Lean Mafia: @structurenole15 (since he's still kind of new)

NON NON NON NON NON

 

[squaretaper LIT AF PE]

Cassandra has been triggered.

Freakin' millennials.

 

[squaretaper LIT AF PE]

T-t-t-triple!

 

[Tiger15]

I'm declaring right now I'm a regular townie. Veterans know I'm telling the truth, therefore the ones who maintain their vote against me remain highly suspicious.

Do vets know that?? I don't remember you being a person who plays without lying. I'm pretty sure you earned the name Dirty Lying Duran for a reason.

 

[Tiger15]

Eek! I'm nervous to vote! I have no clue who to vote for! Is it common for people to not vote on day 1?

You never have to vote. Some people rarely vote. But I will say that, the more involved you are the more fun you're likely to have.... that being said, voting isn't the only way to be involved.

For whatever it's worth, we experimented with mandatory voting in a few rounds in the past. But it didn't seem to stick.

 

[Tiger15]

Sorry square. The wheel of random picked you.

@JayKay PE I vote for @squaretaper LIT AF PE

 

[DLD PE]

Do vets know that?? I don't remember you being a person who plays without lying. I'm pretty sure you earned the name Dirty Lying Duran for a reason.

I'm sure that's true too.