So I thought I read that there were only two mafia this time, but I can't find it anywhere. Whelp, that certainly messes with the probabilities.How do you know so? I thought we do not know how many mafia were there at the start of the game. And we have been only able to vote out one.
If there are two mafia left, and the cop reveals two villagers tonight, then there's a 2/3 chance of offing a mobster tonight. Tomorrow it would be 3-1 villager-mafia. the next day it's 50/50 odds to win the game (see above)
If there are three mafia left, well we're already in a tie scenario and any rational strategy by the mafia would lock in a win for them.
if there were four mafia left, they already won.