EB Mafia
- Thread starter ChebyshevII PE PMP
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@ChebyshevII_PE is the cop allowed to disclose any mafia members they know of? I understand that doing so, they will lose their cover and probably be mafia's next target.
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Around here we tease the ones we like.Y u so mean to me
(also to keep things fair and not unnecessarily complex)
Based on her questions, i think @tj_PE is not mafia (or she is just too smart for me). I am not mafia (hopefully that is believable). We also know that there cannot be more than 3 mafia left (else we would have lost the game).
Now based on these assumptions here is my recommendation:
The cop should identify all the mafia members they know of. Stay silent and hidden only if you don't know any. The worst case scenario is that the cop only knows one mafia member. We can vote them out. Mafia will know who the cop is and probably kill them at night. But now assuming that me and @tj_PE are actual innocent people, we know who the other two mafia members are. and then we get our nunchucks out.
Now based on these assumptions here is my recommendation:
The cop should identify all the mafia members they know of. Stay silent and hidden only if you don't know any. The worst case scenario is that the cop only knows one mafia member. We can vote them out. Mafia will know who the cop is and probably kill them at night. But now assuming that me and @tj_PE are actual innocent people, we know who the other two mafia members are. and then we get our nunchucks out.
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leggo PE
Straight Waffle-izer
ChaosMuppetPE
Talk nerdy to me...
Game theory time.
There are six people left:
If the cop was actively playing the game both nights, then s/he can reveal that (up to) two people are certainly villagers.
So assuming only one person claims to be the cop, then that you mean that there are three publicly known villagers. And three suspects - who would each deny mafia ties. However two of those three would know that they aren't it, and have a 50/50 shot of picking the mafia member. The three known villagers would just choose to side with one of the selections of suspects. Yeah, its a 1/3 chance.
If they choose wrong, and assuming the cop goes "out in the field" too, then the next day there would be two confirmed villagers and two suspects. The two confirmed would then pick one of the remaining suspects. 50/50. the next day. If they choose wrong, then the next day a confirmed villager goes "out in the field" and all that's left is the one confirmed villager and the mafia. So that's a draw or a mafia win? Still seems like pretty good odds for the good guys to take this path.
The odds are different if the cop wasn't spying the last two nights, or more than one person claims to be the cop. But villagers may be able to figure out who's lying based on surveillance targets.
There are six people left:
- RBHeadge
- Roarbark
- tj
- NikR
- AudiDriver
- AlmostSE
If the cop was actively playing the game both nights, then s/he can reveal that (up to) two people are certainly villagers.
So assuming only one person claims to be the cop, then that you mean that there are three publicly known villagers. And three suspects - who would each deny mafia ties. However two of those three would know that they aren't it, and have a 50/50 shot of picking the mafia member. The three known villagers would just choose to side with one of the selections of suspects. Yeah, its a 1/3 chance.
If they choose wrong, and assuming the cop goes "out in the field" too, then the next day there would be two confirmed villagers and two suspects. The two confirmed would then pick one of the remaining suspects. 50/50. the next day. If they choose wrong, then the next day a confirmed villager goes "out in the field" and all that's left is the one confirmed villager and the mafia. So that's a draw or a mafia win? Still seems like pretty good odds for the good guys to take this path.
The odds are different if the cop wasn't spying the last two nights, or more than one person claims to be the cop. But villagers may be able to figure out who's lying based on surveillance targets.
Jury's still out on you. But maybe @tj_PE is just that clever.
The cop may not have been playing well the last two nights and may not know of any suspects. Or both people being spied upon were killed in the morning.
Or the cop has been playing well - and wants another person before coming out with the info. It would play better for the odds outlined above, but there's also a 45% chance they get taken out by the villagers or the mafia tonight (if the villagers don't win outright). I haven't done the full event tree, but intuitively the odds don't really get better for the villagers if the cop waits another night - especially since the odds of a cleared person killed by the mafia or crowd really goes up.
I thought there was only one mafia remaining?
You just couldn't wait for someone else to point out your new title, so you had to do it yourself!
How do you know so? I thought we do not know how many mafia were there at the start of the game. And we have been only able to vote out one.
leggo PE
Straight Waffle-izer
yeah, pretty much
And now the mutual gun pointing starts. If @AlmostSE if mafia, this is a good way to identify the next target comes out. My response is to vote for him, and the villagers get to decide. But if he's just a chaos muppet, then it really fucks with any sort of logical way out of this problem.
