EB Mafia

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@vhab49_PE Got something to distract you:

50727105393_2e97baf3c4_c.jpg


 
If I tagged you, I still need a daily vote please. For the rest of you animals, verify that I've got your vote correct.


 


 


12/16


12/15


Vote Count


Player


Votes For


Votes For


0


tj_PE


x


harshaPEAZ


0


rebecca1


CUniverse


 


1


DuranDuran


CUniverse


EyehatethePEexam


0


vhab49_PE


TrickShotG


JayKay PE


0


jean15paul_PE


ChebyshevII PE


Dothracki


0


NikR_PE


RoarBark


RoarBark


1


@chart94


 


Dothracki


1


squaretaper LIT AF PE


Roarbark


fowler


0


JayKay PE


CUniverse


ChebyshevII PE


0


@RBHeadge PE


 


 


0


LyceeFruit PE


CUniverse


RoarBark


0


txjennah PE


squaretaper LIT AF PE


 


4


Roarbark


chart94


fowler


0


@Dothracki


 


ChebyshevII PE


0


EyehatethePEexam


RoarBark


ChebyshevII PE


0


fowler


x


LyceeFruit PE


1


@ChebyshevII PE


 


Dothracki


5


CUniverse


DuranDuran


 


0


MadamPirate PE


TrickShotG


 


0


harshaPEAZ


RoarBark


Roarbark


2


TrickShotG


CUniverse


fowler

 
I am inclined to believe that @ChebyshevII PE and @Roarbark are not mafia.

On the surface their mutual disarmament and quad tie inducing votes look like collusion. But a deeer look doesn't imply that.

If they were both mafia when they were double tied, then the probability of a mafia losing a member =1. If they set up the four-tie, then the probability drops to 1/2 - because they obviously wouldn't pick to massive tie with other mafia members. yeah roar tossing a newb under the bus looked mafiaesque, but it was self preservation and the odds were low. Now lets extend this further, if they were both mafia, they would have shifted the vote in favor of someone who they knew was townie, making the odds 0. 

Assuming rationale moves, and neglecting any galaxy-brain strategy at play, the moves they made last night are inconsistent with making moves to most efficiently add to a mafia win percentage.

Therefore I will put them in the townie++ category and discourage others from voting for them.

Outside of logic, there moves last night seem more in character with their general approach the game and not indicative of mafia behavior.

 
I will add that @tj_PE decalred herself not mafia yesterday. Veteran players know her to play the game straight.  So if she says she's not mafia, the other vets will recognize her as a nigh-verified townie. A rationale mafiosa would know this and try to reduce the members in the known townie coalition. A high value move would be to eliminate her quickly. Therefore, at least one of the more strategy-minded vets are a member of the mafia. Who that person(s) is, I do not yet know.

 

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