College Football 2016

[Road Guy]

AL still has to play Auburn and Florida in the SEC Championship- plenty of chances for them to get dinged and injured even if they win, those are typically physical games, even if Auburn is out of it.. there is no love lost between those schools..

I am not sure how you would measure it each year but I think they should just take the conf championships from the 4 strongest conferences. I don't know who would be the 4th this year.

1. Big 10

2. SEC

3. ACC

4. ???

 

[wilheldp_PE]

You can't just take the conference champions because of what is happening in the Big 10.  The championship committee is *supposed* to choose the best 4 teams in college football to play for the national championship.  I don't think anybody could legitimately make the argument that Penn State is 1 of the 4 best teams in the country.  They are in position to win the Big 10 because of a fluke win over Ohio State.  The committee is rumored to put a lot of stock in winning a conference championship, but they can ignore that if there is good reason to.  I have a feeling that whoever wins the Michigan-Ohio State game is going to be the Big 10 representative in the playoffs, regardless of who ends up winning the conference.

 

[Road Guy]

Well if Florida beats Bama in the SEC Championship game and they still sent Bama to the "playoffs" I think that would show that the committee is full of crap..

 

[wilheldp_PE]

One-loss Alabama teams won the National Championship in 2011, 2012, and 2015.  Just sayin.

 

[Audi Driver P.E.]

AL still has to play Auburn and Florida in the SEC Championship- plenty of chances for them to get dinged and injured even if they win, those are typically physical games, even if Auburn is out of it.. there is no love lost between those schools..

I am not sure how you would measure it each year but I think they should just take the conf championships from the 4 strongest conferences. I don't know who would be the 4th this year.

1. Big 10

2. SEC

3. ACC

4. Pac 12

 

[Road Guy]

One-loss Alabama teams won the National Championship in 2011, 2012, and 2015.  Just sayin.

True but they also won their conference those years..

I would think they should lend more pref. Points to the conf champion. Loosing to a lower ranked team should have an effect...

 

[Supe]

Well if Florida beats Bama in the SEC Championship game and they still sent Bama to the "playoffs" I think that would show that the committee is full of crap..

If Florida beat Bama in a close game, I would still make an argument that they're deserving of at least a #4 playoff ranking.  Which other 1 loss would be worse than them?  Washington is a no way, and neither is Clemson, who had several very fluke-ish wins early on.

I'm still on the fence with Louisville.  I'd like to think their offense is good enough to beat Alabama, but I can't shake the feeling that they're very similar to the Mariota-backed Oregon team that got their asses handed to them against a good defense two years in a row.

I'm with Wilheld in that I think a Wisconsin/PSU Big 10 champion will not make the playoff UNLESS you had both Alabama, Louisville, and Michigan lose, at which point you could see a two loss Wisconsin team maybe sneak into #4 with two very "good" losses.  More realistically, OSU/Michigan winner goes to the playoff assuming no more fluke losses prior to them playing one another, and the Big 10 champion goes to a New Year's 6 bowl game.  

 

[Supe]

True but they also won their conference those years..

I would think they should lend more pref. Points to the conf champion. Loosing to a lower ranked team should have an effect...

They do, but it wouldn't be enough to vault them into a top 4 spot against teams with multiple wins vs. ranked teams and season-long blowouts everywhere else.  Hell, the way the conferences are aligned, you could have a three loss team with multiple conference losses still make it to the Big 10 championship game.  

 

[wilheldp_PE]

True but they also won their conference those years..

I would think they should lend more pref. Points to the conf champion. Loosing to a lower ranked team should have an effect...

Being a Bama fan, I'm far more concerned about Auburn than I am the SEC championship game.  It doesn't matter what kind of season Auburn is having, they will show up to the Iron Bowl ready to play.  I feel the same way about Texas A&M...for some reason, they have Bama's number and always play a good game against us.  

I'm also a Louisville fan, and I have no delusions that we can beat Alabama.  Best case scenario, if we are given the chance, would be to play Alabama like Clemson did.  Just try to put more points on the board than they can answer.  They are way too physical for us to win any kind of defensive struggle.

 

[Road Guy]

but if Penn States Conference  Record is 6-1 (or 7-1) then I don't think the "blow outs" really mean anything

 

[Supe]

but if Penn States Conference  Record is 6-1 (or 7-1) then I don't think the "blow outs" really mean anything

It does when the top 4 is based on overall body of work, and the top four are picked based on who looks the best at the time.  Team A losing to a ranked team on the road in the rain as the result of a blocked kick is viewed more favorably than two losses by team B, especially when one is a 39 point ass whooping by a team that lost to Team A, and a second loss to an unranked non-conference opponent.

 

[Road Guy]

I just think if they are going to be true to the championship model they would follow that because it may work this year based on those circumstances but it may not always fit that mold..

Like if Washington has won this weekend the same idiot sports writers would have them as #2 probably.

I think that's why the BCS was created because the voting was more based on "who is the hot team at the end of the year" & they started adding things like actual strength of schedule, quality wins, etc..

I was assuming the current playoff system has some metrics like the BSC used to have?

 

[wilheldp_PE]

I just think if they are going to be true to the championship model they would follow that because it may work this year based on those circumstances but it may not always fit that mold..

Like if Washington has won this weekend the same idiot sports writers would have them as #2 probably.

I think that's why the BCS was created because the voting was more based on "who is the hot team at the end of the year" & they started adding things like actual strength of schedule, quality wins, etc..

I was assuming the current playoff system has some metrics like the BSC used to have?

The new system uses a lot of metrics (polls, strength of schedule statistics, etc.).  Where the BCS used to use a multitude of computer models to smooth out some of the variability between the various polls, the new system uses a committee made up of politicians (Condi Rice is on there), ex-coaches, athletic directors, etc. to rank the playoff teams.

I think they would be hard-pressed to leave out a Power 5 conference champion with an undefeated record.  But when you have lots of really good teams with 1 loss, and bizarre conference champion rules, there will be a lot of subjectivity in the final rankings.  I think that the compromise on a 4 team playoff was kind of dumb.  There really needs to be at least 8 teams, but preferably 16, in a college football playoff.  I don't think anybody could deny that the best team in the country will be in the mix by any measure if they took the top 16.  When you narrow it down to the top 4, there is a real possibility that the best time in the country could be left out due to a fluke in their season.

 

[Supe]

The new system uses a lot of metrics (polls, strength of schedule statistics, etc.).  Where the BCS used to use a multitude of computer models to smooth out some of the variability between the various polls, the new system uses a committee made up of politicians (Condi Rice is on there), ex-coaches, athletic directors, etc. to rank the playoff teams.

I think they would be hard-pressed to leave out a Power 5 conference champion with an undefeated record.  But when you have lots of really good teams with 1 loss, and bizarre conference champion rules, there will be a lot of subjectivity in the final rankings.  I think that the compromise on a 4 team playoff was kind of dumb.  There really needs to be at least 8 teams, but preferably 16, in a college football playoff.  I don't think anybody could deny that the best team in the country will be in the mix by any measure if they took the top 16.  When you narrow it down to the top 4, there is a real possibility that the best time in the country could be left out due to a fluke in their season.

Agree completely, with the caveat that I think 8 teams is doable, recognizing they do have issues with breaks, finals schedules, etc.  Not saying you couldn't have a 9-16 Cinderella win it, but if you can't manage to get in the top 8, then you probably don't really deserve to be in it.

 

[willsee]

Louisville is now officially out of the race.

 

[Supe]

Yup.

I'm just glad I was racing on Saturday instead of watching the OSU game.

 

[Road Guy]

A few more close games like that and Urban will "retire" again..

 

[Supe]

A few more games like that and I'm going to need a good cardiologist.

 

[Road Guy]

He still owns a lake house 2 houses down from my BIL in Gainesville - There is still a gator flag on the dock, i'm pretty sure he just keeps that there so the locals don't burn his house down....... but you never know....

 

[Audi Driver P.E.]

So, does Washington make #4 this week again?