Sometimes you just need to scream!!!

[Capt Worley PE]

Where's all the work gone? I thought we were in a recovery. DOW at 5 year highs and work is at a 12 month low.

I don't think the DOW is indicative of the state of the economy as it once was.

 

[Judowolf PE]

The DOW is like the price of Crude Oil, it's very fickle and depends a lot on the news media and it's spin on things...

 

[cdcengineer]

So what's the consensus here on EB with the workload? Are the bulk of you busier than last year at this time?

 

[Capt Worley PE]

Same, same for this time last year.

 

[envirotex]

I'm surprised to hear that, we have nationwide and have had more than two claims on a house in under 5 years and have not had any issues...

The key is "non-weather-related." I think some sort of regulations prevents them from dropping you due to weather-related claims. But if you have two burglaries, appliance fire/floods, etc. in that span, they can drop you.

Thanks for the heads-up. We have Nationwide, too and we had a flood upstairs last year. Plastic flange that attaches the water-supply line to the toilet tank sheared off. A geyser in the upstairs bathroom, and a waterfall in the kitchen, below.

 

[Flyer_PE]

So what's the consensus here on EB with the workload? Are the bulk of you busier than last year at this time?

A little slower this year but it's not a lack of work, it's just that what I'm working on now actually has a schedule that doesn't require regular 60-hr weeks to meet.

 

[blybrook PE]

So what's the consensus here on EB with the workload? Are the bulk of you busier than last year at this time?

A little busier than this time last year. Mainly with projects that have extremely tight deadlines. They'll all be finished come mid March and we'll be in a lull again.

 

[wilheldp_PE]

I'm surprised to hear that, we have nationwide and have had more than two claims on a house in under 5 years and have not had any issues...

The key is "non-weather-related." I think some sort of regulations prevents them from dropping you due to weather-related claims. But if you have two burglaries, appliance fire/floods, etc. in that span, they can drop you.

Thanks for the heads-up. We have Nationwide, too and we had a flood upstairs last year. Plastic flange that attaches the water-supply line to the toilet tank sheared off. A geyser in the upstairs bathroom, and a waterfall in the kitchen, below.

My lab looks at about a thousand of those a year (no exaggeration). It is usually caused by over-tightening of the plastic nut either with tools or with pipe thread compound.

 

[mudpuppy]

Where's all the work gone? I thought we were in a recovery. DOW at 5 year highs and work is at a 12 month low.

I don't think the DOW is indicative of the state of the economy as it once was.

I just finished Peter Lynch's One Up on Wall Street, and based on that I don't think the DJIA has ever been an indicator of the state of the economy. It's really just an indicator of how much people are willing to pay for stocks, which is a lot more complicated than the state of the economy.

 

[Capt Worley PE]

Where's all the work gone? I thought we were in a recovery. DOW at 5 year highs and work is at a 12 month low.

I don't think the DOW is indicative of the state of the economy as it once was.

I just finished Peter Lynch's One Up on Wall Street, and based on that I don't think the DJIA has ever been an indicator of the state of the economy. It's really just an indicator of how much people are willing to pay for stocks, which is a lot more complicated than the state of the economy.

Not having read the book, it seems to me that when people who don't know what they are doing get into the stock market (a driving force behind the crash of 1929 and the dot-com bubble of 99-00) or real estate (house flipping epidemic of the mid 2000s), the economy usually takes it in the keister.

 

[RIP - VTEnviro]

Where's all the work gone? I thought we were in a recovery. DOW at 5 year highs and work is at a 12 month low.

It's dead as can be where I am right now (mid-Hudson Valley). I had two companies lay me off in 2012. They were both dead and as the new guy, off I went. They concocted reasons for getting rid of me, but the fact is they were both one big client bailing on them away from being toast. Ended up taking a crappy position at a one man show 50 miles away. This whole single family septic design and responding to backyard drainage complaints is getting old in a hurry. Not dead but not lighting it up either.

That's why I took a position out of state that I'm starting in a few weeks. There is rapid growth there and this place does a lot of municipal small town work where there is either no engineering department or they are overwhelmed if they have one. I expect to be busy.

 

[Judowolf PE]

Sounds promising VT, good luck with the new job!

 

[pbrme]

Wow Will, sorry to hear about your breakin. That absolutely sucks.

Judo, I'd be posting signage if I were you about the nasty things you'd do to tresspassers. You don't need people nosing around knowing your routine. I'd also get a big dog who hates strangers.

About the DOW, I heard an interresting relation... that unemployment rate statistically lags the DOW by about 9 months. So as the bottom falls out the index, layoffs follow an inverse 9 months later. I heard it from my future BIL who does day trading, said it has been a pretty solid indicator since the depression. I was curious about this and googled "Index vs unemployment chart" and found this site.

Here's a graph of the DJI and UER:

<a href="http://ycharts.com/indicators/unemployment_rate/chart#series=calc:,type:indicator,id:unemployment_rate,,calcrice,type:index,id:^DJI&maxPoints=650&zoom=10&format=real"><img src="http://media.ycharts.com/charts/070da914ee40e1af61a29cfbb852ca67.png" alt="US Unemployment Rate Chart" /></a><p style="font-size: 10px;"><a href="http://ycharts.com/indicators/unemployment_rate">US Unemployment Rate</a> data by <a href="http://ycharts.com">YCharts</a></p>

For me, work load is about the same as last year, but my company has let go of quite a few. The engineering dept. started last year with 18 FTE and is now down 6.

 

[Master slacker]

About the DOW, I heard an interresting relation... that unemployment rate statistically lags the DOW by about 9 months. So as the bottom falls out the index, layoffs follow an inverse 9 months later. I heard it from my future BIL who does day trading, said it has been a pretty solid indicator since the depression.

I have a feeling that this time around won't reflect as accurately. With the sweeping in of new health care laws / taxes, energy regulations, etc... I believe the hiring trend will be very skeptical and slow for a while.

 

[mudpuppy]

Where's all the work gone? I thought we were in a recovery. DOW at 5 year highs and work is at a 12 month low.

I don't think the DOW is indicative of the state of the economy as it once was.

I just finished Peter Lynch's One Up on Wall Street, and based on that I don't think the DJIA has ever been an indicator of the state of the economy. It's really just an indicator of how much people are willing to pay for stocks, which is a lot more complicated than the state of the economy.

Not having read the book, it seems to me that when people who don't know what they are doing get into the stock market (a driving force behind the crash of 1929 and the dot-com bubble of 99-00) or real estate (house flipping epidemic of the mid 2000s), the economy usually takes it in the keister.

I tend to disagree. I think the stock market crashes are generally due to the economy tanking rather than the other way around. I think the stock market can prop up the economy for short periods of time (due to "investor confidence"), but not over the long run. In the long run, the economy is going to do what it was going to do regardless.

Stock market prices really are just an indicator of the mood of Wall Street, which in general has no bearing on GDP, on available capital, on production, on interest rates, or much of anything else. This is one of the points of the book.

 

[Capt Worley PE]

^^I may have to give it a read.

 

[MA_PE]

Where's all the work gone? I thought we were in a recovery. DOW at 5 year highs and work is at a 12 month low.

It's dead as can be where I am right now (mid-Hudson Valley). I had two companies lay me off in 2012. They were both dead and as the new guy, off I went. They concocted reasons for getting rid of me, but the fact is they were both one big client bailing on them away from being toast. Ended up taking a crappy position at a one man show 50 miles away. This whole single family septic design and responding to backyard drainage complaints is getting old in a hurry. Not dead but not lighting it up either.

That's why I took a position out of state that I'm starting in a few weeks. There is rapid growth there and this place does a lot of municipal small town work where there is either no engineering department or they are overwhelmed if they have one. I expect to be busy.

you should head towards Jay's Peak in your former home state of VT. I saw a show called Chronicle last night where they focused on a guy trying to get $850M in capital to build a full-blown resort community up there.

He's built this over the last few years and has some serious vision for expanding and building.

http://www.jaypeakresort.com/

 

[cdcengineer]

Where's all the work gone? I thought we were in a recovery. DOW at 5 year highs and work is at a 12 month low.

I don't think the DOW is indicative of the state of the economy as it once was.

I just finished Peter Lynch's One Up on Wall Street, and based on that I don't think the DJIA has ever been an indicator of the state of the economy. It's really just an indicator of how much people are willing to pay for stocks, which is a lot more complicated than the state of the economy.

It seems to me that the market is one big pyramid scheme. If no one keeps buying in, than who's to say how much a stock is worth.

 

[Judowolf PE]

That's pretty much the case cdc...

 

[Flyer_PE]

Stock in a company is like any other commodity. It's worth exactly what somebody is willing to pay for it at any given time.