Predictions for Obama admin
- Thread starter benbo
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benbo
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I heard some local professor on the radio today predicting a minimum 1.5 trillion deficit next year. So maybe you're not far off. I'm still not panicking yet.
He had some dire predictions - like 10% plus unemployment, -4% GDP growth, which are numbers I sort of expected.
He had some dire predictions - like 10% plus unemployment, -4% GDP growth, which are numbers I sort of expected.
cement
gray haired dude
I'm thinking that any money we give the automakers will go to the UAW for the fat pensions that buy those freaking land yachts that roll thru here in the summer. the rest goes to buy political ads. and politicians.
Bailing out the automakers will fund the "Legacy" programs that are killing them in the first place. The UAW doesn't seem to understand that all of these life long pensions and benefits that they fight for create so much overhead that the companies would rather shut down than keep paying them.
Chapter 11 is the only way to break the deal and start fresh.
It happened when Ma Bell finally broke up. The state and federal governements need to get on board and recognize that the budgets can't tolerate these lifetime commitments.
Rather than cutting pensions they just talk about the general public's loos of social security.
The wealth is being "distributed" right in front of our eyes.
Chapter 11 is the only way to break the deal and start fresh.
It happened when Ma Bell finally broke up. The state and federal governements need to get on board and recognize that the budgets can't tolerate these lifetime commitments.
Rather than cutting pensions they just talk about the general public's loos of social security.
The wealth is being "distributed" right in front of our eyes.
Chucktown PE
Well-known member
Just so everyone knows, the democrats in Congress as well as BO have proposed giving $25 billion of your money directly to the automakers and another $10 billion directly to the unions.
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well last year's
Do you think questions like this will be on the exam?
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chaosiscash
Subcontractor
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ops, I thought it was million. Yea, billion makes it a whole lot worse. Does that count as a units error? Or just being careless?
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Chucktown PE
Well-known member
I look at it another way. I have heard it said that the collapse of the big three would mean the loss of about 2,500,000 jobs (about 200,000 that work for the automakers and the rest at suppliers, restaurants, etc.) so $35,000,000,000 divided by 2,500,000 is roughly $14,000 per job. Of course that assumes that the people that get laid off won't go get new jobs which is what our government wants you to believe. The 2,500,000 is also a number from the UAW which is as full of shit as a Christmas turkey.
So my guess is by the time it's all said and done, this number will be around $50,000 per job, or enough to send these people to a 4 year college or 2 year technical school, move them from Detroit to some other state, and pay their rent for a few months.
So my guess is by the time it's all said and done, this number will be around $50,000 per job, or enough to send these people to a 4 year college or 2 year technical school, move them from Detroit to some other state, and pay their rent for a few months.
25 Billion was actually passed as law last year or in '06 as a loan to the Big 3 in order for them to begin making more fuel efficient cars. This is the amount that is being discussed right now because the bill was passed but not funded before it terminated so it needs to be relegislated is my understanding. Still doesn't make it right.
I also have an issue with Paulson selling this TARP to lawmakers as 700 billion to be used for buying bad assets. Now he says he's not going to use it for that. Did we really give him a blank check with no checks and balances on how he spends it. That's ridiculous.
I also have an issue with Paulson selling this TARP to lawmakers as 700 billion to be used for buying bad assets. Now he says he's not going to use it for that. Did we really give him a blank check with no checks and balances on how he spends it. That's ridiculous.
Capt Worley PE
Run silent, run deep
If GM makes it to 2010, it will be able to shed the pensions; the UAW funds them after that.
If the Big 3 collapse, even one of them, it will be far, far worse than if the banks, all of them collapsed. Jobs and manufacturing will be lost.
However, I think GM will HAVE to eventually declared Chapter 11.
If the Big 3 collapse, even one of them, it will be far, far worse than if the banks, all of them collapsed. Jobs and manufacturing will be lost.
However, I think GM will HAVE to eventually declared Chapter 11.
snickerd3
Taking suggestions
I'm not very familiar with bankruptcy stuff, but once they file couldn't they legally then cut everyones pay without all the Union lawsuits to follow? Sucks for the workers but it would give the company a place to start over...having a job is better than not having one.
Chucktown PE
Well-known member
wilheldp_PE
PE, LEED AP, SPAM KING
Agreed. That number might actually be representative of the entire auto industry, including supply chain and support industries. But GM going out of business, or even all of the Big 3, would not make the entire auto industry in America disappear. I guarantee you that Honda, Toyota, Hyundai, Kia, etc. would expand to fill most of the void, and some Chinese and Indian companies would jump at the opportunity to enter the American market. I'm sure that Detroit suppliers that are facing the decision to either reorganize to reduce costs and supply to the foreign auto plants, or close up shop and go out of business would choose the former in great numbers. I do, however, feel that the end of the Big 3 would sound the Death Toll for the UAW which has been a long time coming.
The 2,500,000 number also assumes that every laid off worker has to return to work. I would suspect that a good number of the UAW members are very close to retirement age and would not continue working.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if those jobs are really needed, meaning we need to produce as many cars after the collapse as we do before, then wouldn't another company step in and pick up manufacturing.
If they collapse and all of these people are out of a job, then doesn't that mean that the jobs weren't needed in the first place. So would the market forces have created the sinking of the industry due to supply and demand. Isn't that what we want in a capitalist society?
If they collapse and all of these people are out of a job, then doesn't that mean that the jobs weren't needed in the first place. So would the market forces have created the sinking of the industry due to supply and demand. Isn't that what we want in a capitalist society?
Chucktown PE
Well-known member
^^ Dude,
Where have you been the last 70 years. We aren't a capitalist society. We like to "spread the wealth around." Market forces, what the hell are those? Those are just greedy rich people getting richer off the backs of the "working class."
Where have you been the last 70 years. We aren't a capitalist society. We like to "spread the wealth around." Market forces, what the hell are those? Those are just greedy rich people getting richer off the backs of the "working class."
