EB Mafia

[SaltySteve PE]

@Dothracki PE was mafia.

 

[BlueBlueprintPE PMP]

yay! we got a maf!!!

 

[MadamPirate PE]

While all the commotion with @Dothracki PE was occuring, a figure slipped into @EyehatethePEexam and @Road Guy's cabin. These two slept like the dead, so it was easy for the figure to abduct @EyehatethePEexam while they were sleeping. RG snored loudly while Eye's heels dragged along the floor.

The next morning, the bugle goes off. RG shoots a look at Eye's bed, and sees they aren't there - RG shrugs and goes to brush his teeth before breakfast, it's pancake day!

At breakfast, the counselors do a headcount and find they're short another camper. The staff tries to contain their panic, but the teenagers become uneasy. The kids are hustled through breakfast and out to activities, and half the staff members go looking for Eye. Eye isn't found before lunchtime, and the head counselor writes their name down to call their parents.


@EyehatethePEexam was abducted by the mafia.

Remaining players: @ChebyshevII PE @txjennah PE @BlueBlueprint_PE @DuranDuran @RBHeadge PE @Roarbark @NikR_PE @chart94

 

[RBHeadge PE]

We learned a lot from yesterday's vote.

Critical Votes:
@ChebyshevII PE and @RBHeadge PE cast critical votes against the mafia. They have positive and deliberate positive WPA. We can assume that they are townies.
@txjennah PE in retrospect cast a critical vote with to save a mafia. However its possible that her vote was in ignorance. So while her WPA is negative, I'm not sure I believe that number... for now.

Inferential Votes by mafia:
@Dothracki PE was quick to jump on my retaliatory vote for @BlueBlueprint_PE. This implies that @BlueBlueprint_PE is townie. Further @BlueBlueprint_PE was the first to vote for a mafia. Both are circumstantial but combined it makes for a safe assumption that @BlueBlueprint_PE is townie.

tl;dr
townie++

• blue
• cheby
• rbh

neutral

• duran
• chart
• roar
• nikr
• txjen

 

[Tiger15]

I wish I understood @RBHeadge PE 's WPA math
.... quantitatively.
I feel like I understand it qualitatively.

 

[DoctorWho-PE]

I wish I understood @RBHeadge PE 's WPA math
.... quantitatively.
I feel like I understand it qualitatively.

Right?

 

[txjennah PE]

We learned a lot from yesterday's vote.

Critical Votes:
@ChebyshevII PE and @RBHeadge PE cast critical votes against the mafia. They have positive and deliberate positive WPA. We can assume that they are townies.
@txjennah PE in retrospect cast a critical vote with to save a mafia. However its possible that her vote was in ignorance. So while her WPA is negative, I'm not sure I believe that number... for now.

Inferential Votes by mafia:
@Dothracki PE was quick to jump on my retaliatory vote for @BlueBlueprint_PE. This implies that @BlueBlueprint_PE is townie. Further @BlueBlueprint_PE was the first to vote for a mafia. Both are circumstantial but combined it makes for a safe assumption that @BlueBlueprint_PE is townie.

tl;dr
townie++

• blue
• cheby
• rbh

neutral

• duran
• chart
• roar
• nikr
• txjen

I made my vote based on your initial vote, then wasn't able to check the game until it was too late.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

I made my vote based on your initial vote, then wasn't able to check the game until it was too late.

That what I figured too, hence the disclaimer on the WPA number.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

I wish I understood @RBHeadge PE 's WPA math
.... quantitatively.
I feel like I understand it qualitatively.

Right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Win_probability_added
Moves that help the town get a positive score. Move that help the mafia get a negative score. I need to reiterate every day based on new information. The trick is knowing what are critical moves and what are incidental moves. Not every vote on every day gets included. Some moves only get a fractional score.

I also have to prepare different WPA calculations for different audiences. The townie thread gets the full analysis. The public forum gets a different version that excludes embargoed information. I often have to avoid saying or including certain bits of information to protect the identities of special characters. and occasional known townies. I do this sort of thing at work... a lot.

And this is before I start including other kinds of inferential analysis!

 

[BlueBlueprintPE PMP]

@Dothracki PE you maf? interesting gif choice....

seems that the gif choice was a telling sign...

 

[Eye Hate Landscaping PE]

While all the commotion with @Dothracki PE was occuring, a figure slipped into @EyehatethePEexam and @Road Guy's cabin. These two slept like the dead, so it was easy for the figure to abduct @EyehatethePEexam while they were sleeping. RG snored loudly while Eye's heels dragged along the floor.

The next morning, the bugle goes off. RG shoots a look at Eye's bed, and sees they aren't there - RG shrugs and goes to brush his teeth before breakfast, it's pancake day!

At breakfast, the counselors do a headcount and find they're short another camper. The staff tries to contain their panic, but the teenagers become uneasy. The kids are hustled through breakfast and out to activities, and half the staff members go looking for Eye. Eye isn't found before lunchtime, and the head counselor writes their name down to call their parents.


@EyehatethePEexam was abducted by the mafia.

Remaining players: @ChebyshevII PE @txjennah PE @BlueBlueprint_PE @DuranDuran @RBHeadge PE @Roarbark @NikR_PE @chart94

Blood out blood in...even I was surprised I wasn't mafia this time.

 

[Dothracki PE]

seems that the gif choice was a telling sign...

I realized that afterwards... it's been a long time since I played GTA San Andreas

 

[BlueBlueprintPE PMP]

Seems no one wants to cast the first vote today.... I have a meeting this afternoon, so I'm not sure how much I'll be on. For now @MadamPirate PE I vote for @Roarbark as the last minute vote for @EyehatethePEexam may have been a pre-cursor to last night's Maf Kill....

though my mind may still be changed...

 

[MadamPirate PE]

vote update:
1 x @Roarbark (blue)

 

[Roarbark]

@MadamPirate PE I vote for @txjennah PE for now. Hopefully I'll have time later check if there's more developments.

 

[MadamPirate PE]

vote update:
1 x @Roarbark (blue)
1 @txjennah PE (roar)

 

[txjennah PE]

@MadamPirate PE I vote for @Roarbark

 

[MadamPirate PE]

vote update:
2 x @Roarbark (blue, txj)
1 x @txjennah PE (roar)

 

[DLD PE]

@MadamPirate PE I vote for @Roarbark.

 

[BlueBlueprintPE PMP]

@MadamPirate PE I vote for @Roarbark

hmmm... a retaliatory vote...???? sus.