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EB Mafia
- Thread starter ChebyshevII PE PMP
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Help Support Professional Engineer & PE Exam Forum:
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ChaosMuppetPE
Talk nerdy to me...
Maybe you shouldn't have voted for your super extra special very best (now also DED) friend and they could've/would've protected you and argued for your precious life essence to remain bound to this mortal coil, but maybe that's none of my business...
Oh well, I am just admiring the sunshine and my pupper's new squeaky balls with human teeth. He cracks me up with those.
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7/24 Game Theory Update
For reference, the living players in this round are:
@NikR
@Roarbark
@vhab49_PE
@chart94
@leggo PE
Ded Mofos:
@JayKay0914 townie lynched by townies
@RBHeadge PE townie killed at night
@AlmostSE mafia lynched by townies
@tj_PE townie killed at night
Analysis
Game is still going on so mafia<3
based on publicly known information: the cop could be alive or dead; the doctor could be alive or dead
If alive, the cop should be able to verify the identities of two players (alive or dead), and could probably use this information to at least identify one townie ally- recruit one more trusted person and the odds of townie success increase quite a bit.
If dead, the ghost cop can at least verify the identity of one player (alive or dead) and could possibly help create an alliance between suspected townies. See above.
If alive, the doctor needs to step up and heal the correct person tonight.
if dead, the doctor is useless except as a threat to heal the cop tonight so the town gets another data point.
The cop and doctor don't need to keep their identities secret after tomorrow morning. If the cop has enough data to create a known townie alliance, then they could reveal themselves publicly now without harm to their self. The doctor only needs to remain a secret so long as the cop is secret.
If mafia=2
The doctor and cop are both in Schrödinger's Purgatory, so there are 1-3 regular townies. Calculated odds below won't reflect possible intel from the cop or healing from the doctor.
The town can't win tonight.
Without any reasoning, the town has a 40% to pick a mafia tonight, but realistically the three townies need to find each other and form the right alliance to have any hope to win. If they pick right tonight they have one last effectively* 50/50 chance to win outright tomorrow evening. Guess wrong again, and it goes to shootout at high noon (or 3PM edt). So 30% chance of townie win. Odds will increase if doctor is alive and picks the right person each night.
If the townies pick wrong tonight, the town will lose in 23.5 hrs.
If mafia=1
The doctor and cop are both in Schrödinger's Purgatory, so there are 2-4 regular townies. Calculated odds below won't reflect possible intel from the cop or healing from the doctor.
Without any reasoning, the town has a 20% chance to win tonight. If they guess wrong, then town will have one last effectively* 50/50 chance to win outright tomorrow evening. Guess wrong again, and it goes to shootout at high noon (or 3PM edt). So 80% chance of townie win. Odds will increase if doctor is alive and picks the right person each night.
*it's actually 1/3, but in any rationale situation it essentially comes down to one townie selecting the correct person as a 1:1 tiebreaker
For reference, the living players in this round are:
@NikR
@Roarbark
@vhab49_PE
@chart94
@leggo PE
Ded Mofos:
@JayKay0914 townie lynched by townies
@RBHeadge PE townie killed at night
@AlmostSE mafia lynched by townies
@tj_PE townie killed at night
Analysis
Game is still going on so mafia<3
based on publicly known information: the cop could be alive or dead; the doctor could be alive or dead
If alive, the cop should be able to verify the identities of two players (alive or dead), and could probably use this information to at least identify one townie ally- recruit one more trusted person and the odds of townie success increase quite a bit.
If dead, the ghost cop can at least verify the identity of one player (alive or dead) and could possibly help create an alliance between suspected townies. See above.
If alive, the doctor needs to step up and heal the correct person tonight.
if dead, the doctor is useless except as a threat to heal the cop tonight so the town gets another data point.
The cop and doctor don't need to keep their identities secret after tomorrow morning. If the cop has enough data to create a known townie alliance, then they could reveal themselves publicly now without harm to their self. The doctor only needs to remain a secret so long as the cop is secret.
If mafia=2
The doctor and cop are both in Schrödinger's Purgatory, so there are 1-3 regular townies. Calculated odds below won't reflect possible intel from the cop or healing from the doctor.
The town can't win tonight.
Without any reasoning, the town has a 40% to pick a mafia tonight, but realistically the three townies need to find each other and form the right alliance to have any hope to win. If they pick right tonight they have one last effectively* 50/50 chance to win outright tomorrow evening. Guess wrong again, and it goes to shootout at high noon (or 3PM edt). So 30% chance of townie win. Odds will increase if doctor is alive and picks the right person each night.
If the townies pick wrong tonight, the town will lose in 23.5 hrs.
If mafia=1
The doctor and cop are both in Schrödinger's Purgatory, so there are 2-4 regular townies. Calculated odds below won't reflect possible intel from the cop or healing from the doctor.
Without any reasoning, the town has a 20% chance to win tonight. If they guess wrong, then town will have one last effectively* 50/50 chance to win outright tomorrow evening. Guess wrong again, and it goes to shootout at high noon (or 3PM edt). So 80% chance of townie win. Odds will increase if doctor is alive and picks the right person each night.
*it's actually 1/3, but in any rationale situation it essentially comes down to one townie selecting the correct person as a 1:1 tiebreaker
but you still wanted your super extra special very best friend SO DED in the end anyway!
ChaosMuppetPE
Talk nerdy to me...
You don't know my life. Maybe I could've turned it all around and become a productive citizen in the end. Now we'll never know.
ChaosMuppetPE
Talk nerdy to me...
FWIW if the doctor is alive:
mafia=2
30%->42.6%
But assumes that the town doesn't use any reasoning until it's obvious who's who. Further most of the increase comes from the doctor guessing right tonight if the town guesses wrong in the evening.
mafia=1
80%->83%
mafia=2
30%->42.6%
But assumes that the town doesn't use any reasoning until it's obvious who's who. Further most of the increase comes from the doctor guessing right tonight if the town guesses wrong in the evening.
mafia=1
80%->83%
leggo PE
Straight Waffle-izer
leggo PE
Straight Waffle-izer
Good thing the ded can still talk in this game!
ChaosMuppetPE
Talk nerdy to me...
I miss you, my evil friend. I bet you can make some devilishly good brownies. Especially with those California herbal spices.
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