EB Mafia

[txjennah PE]

Also, I just want to point out that roar targeted me yesterday. Yes, I know mafia target one another during some games to fool townies, but I was already under suspicion for my voting record on Day 1. I'm not maf.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

@MadamPirate PE I vote for @RBHeadge PE , but that vote is subject to change with any additional data.

I thought I made it clear yesterday that I am a townie.

Well, Blue cast the first vote for roar yesterday - so this was either a really good guess or there was additional info that led them to casting that vote. .... And wouldn't Blue presumably be in that townie chat?

It was a good guess. A mafia member was not found via investigation yesterday. @BlueBlueprint_PE is not in the townie PM. Her alignment was derived and investigations could be better spent elsewhere. He was given information outside of the official PM chat.

But instead, RB randomly votes for Duran, after everyone else voted against roar?

I didn't need to pile on roar. His fate was sealed whether I knew is alignment or not. I choose to cast a vote to perturb the system and see what shakes out the next day.

And this especially doesn't make sense if there is a townie chat, since usually everyone in the townie chat votes for the same target once it's established.

This is normally the case. However people outside the townie thread tend to pile on too without any information. When you think about it, the most a properly run townie thread could have had last night was three living players (cop, and two townies) since one of the investigations found a mafia or day 1 or 2. The least it could have had last night was one living player.

I'll post my reads shortly.

 

[LyceeFruit PE]

It was a good guess. A mafia member was not found via investigation yesterday. @BlueBlueprint_PE is not in the townie PM. His alignment was derived and investigations could be better spent elsewhere. He was given information outside of the official PM chat.

she

 

[BlueBlueprintPE PMP]

she

i was gonna let it slide ... it's so hard to tell on there!

 

[RBHeadge PE]

she

Sorry. fixt above.

 

[BlueBlueprintPE PMP]

Sorry. fixt above.

no harm no foul....

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Critical Votes:
Day 2
@ChebyshevII PE and @RBHeadge PE cast critical votes against the mafia. They have positive and deliberate positive WPA is +1. We can assume that they are townies.
@txjennah PE in retrospect cast a critical vote with to save a mafia. However its possible that her vote was in ignorance. Her WPA is -1.

Day 3
@BlueBlueprint_PE cast the first vote for a mafia. This in and of itself doesn't rank as critical in my system but it fits the narrative.
@txjennah PE casts the critical vote for a mafia. It's retaliatory and only the second vote, but it counts as positive WPA. Her net WPA is zero.

Inferential Votes by mafia:
Day 2
@Dothracki PE was quick to jump on my retaliatory vote for @BlueBlueprint_PE. This implies that @BlueBlueprint_PE is townie. Further @BlueBlueprint_PE was the first to vote for a mafia. Both are circumstantial but combined it makes for a safe assumption that @BlueBlueprint_PE is townie.

Day 3
@Roarbark votes for @txjennah PE when he in on the block. It's a major negative value move for the mafia to try to set up a tie with one of their own when only two remains, and so many active townies are around. Implies @txjennah PE is town.

tl;dr
townie++

• cheby
• rbh

townie+

• txjen

neutral

• duran
• chart
• nikr

If I had to guess then it's chart, duran, or nikr.

Meanwhile, I've had to put on a suit for the first time in 51 weeks and need to record some stuff for work. I can happily report that it is looser than the last time I wore it. I'll be OOC now through 7PM.

 

[DLD PE]

If I had to guess then it's chart, duran, or nikr.

It's not me.

@MadamPirate PE , based on the latest analysis, I change my vote to @chart94 .

 

[txjennah PE]

@MadamPirate PE I withdraw my vote for @RBHeadge PE for now.

 

[MadamPirate PE]

1 x @txjennah PE (nik)
1 x @chart94 (DD)

 

[MadamPirate PE]

I've decided that further games I mod that @LyceeFruit PE isn't playing in, shall be the continuing adventures of LyceeFruit, Cryptozoologist.

 

[Booo]

@MadamPirate PE i change my vote to @chart94

 

[MadamPirate PE]

2 x @chart94 (DD, nik)

 

[Tiger15]

she

It would be nice to have public facing pronouns as part of your profile.
... As an optional field

 

[Tiger15]

I've decided that further games I mod that @LyceeFruit PE isn't playing in, shall be the continuing adventures of LyceeFruit, Cryptozoologist.

I interpret this as @MadamPirate PE volunteering to mod everytime @LyceeFruit PE is not playing.

 

[Tiger15]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Win_probability_added
Moves that help the town get a positive score. Move that help the mafia get a negative score. I need to reiterate every day based on new information. The trick is knowing what are critical moves and what are incidental moves. Not every vote on every day gets included. Some moves only get a fractional score.

I also have to prepare different WPA calculations for different audiences. The townie thread gets the full analysis. The public forum gets a different version that excludes embargoed information. I often have to avoid saying or including certain bits of information to protect the identities of special characters. and occasional known townies. I do this sort of thing at work... a lot.

And this is before I start including other kinds of inferential analysis!

^emphasis added

The more I lean about @RBHeadge PE the more scared of him I become. I'm glad he's one of the good guys.

 

[MadamPirate PE]

I interpret this as @MadamPirate PE volunteering to mod everytime @LyceeFruit PE is not playing.

I'll mod even when she is playing, but I am liking this story thread I'm working on!

 

[BlueBlueprintPE PMP]

It would be nice to have public facing pronouns as part of your profile.
... As an optional field

seems pretty much the only place you can put it is where we all put much more entertaining info....

 

[ChebyshevII PE PMP]

she

i was gonna let it slide ... it's so hard to tell on there!

Hah! I'm glad I'm not the only one who made this mistake. (not glad for the mistake, glad I'm not the only one).

And based on most recent data... @MadamPirate PE I will follow the current crowd and vote @chart94 for now.

 

[MadamPirate PE]

Vote update:
3 x @chart94 (DD, nik, chebs)