April 2018 Pass Rates

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Thanks @Duckdude! I'm not sure anyone has put this together in one place publicly before. I regret that I have but one reaction to give.

It looks like you screengrabbed a spreadsheet. I'm curious what the weight averaged passing percentage is over the last six exams is for each of the biannual exams? That might give a better idea of the deviations in this cycle.

 
Thanks!

Breaking it out into three categories, normal +/-2, better >2, worse <2,

among first time takers in Apr 2018

Normal +/- 2

  • Ag
  • CE Construction
  • CE WRE
  • Environmental*
  • ME Machine
  • ME TFS
Worse <2

  • Arch (-18)*
  • CE Geo (-3)
  • CE Structural (-6)
  • CE Transport (-4)
  • EE Computer (-19)*
  • EE Electronics, Comms, Controls (-13)*
  • EE Power (-5)*
  • Industrial (-9)
  • ME HVAC (-4)
  • Naval (-9)
  • Software (-20)
Better >2

  • None
among repeat takers in Apr 2018

Normal +/- 2

  • CE Geo
  • CE Transport
  • EE power
Worse <2

  • Arch (-19)*
  • CE Const (-3)
  • CE Structural (-9)
  • EE Computer (-19)*
  • EE Electronics, Comms, Controls (-5)*
  • Industrial (-22)
  • Software (-44)
Better >2

  • Ag (+24)
  • CE WRE (+3)
  • Environmental (+7)*
  • ME HVAC (+7)
  • ME Machine (+3)
  • ME TFS (+4)
  • Naval (+9)
*New Test, new cut score; italics 1/yr test

I was tempted to throw out the 1/yr first time take, and both 1/yr and 2/yr repeat taker deviations because the samples sizes are so small in many instances. I included them above for completeness, but they aren't considered in my thoughts below.

General thoughts. Passing rates are noticeably down for many tests including CE (Struct and Trans), and all EE. New tests saw a drop in passing rate, which I've anecdotally noticed to be the norm. The exception here is Envr which saw a small increase that doesn't deviate much from the norm. This wasn't a favorable cycle to participate in.

I'd expect rates to revert to the mean for the fall exam.  I've anecdotally noticed a bounce-back the cycle after the new test.

There is only one new pencil exam in October: Fire Protection. I don't understand the change now since they're going CBT in 2020. I'm predicting it now: the FPE cut score meeting will delay the Oct 2018 results release. I just don't see them having the foresight to schedule it the week of Nov 12. If "we're" lucky they'll make it around Nov 27 - Dec 1. But it wouldn't surprise me if they make it after Dec 5. I have nothing to support that theory, just a hunch.

Nuclear goes CBT in October. They probably have a cut score meeting, but it won't affect the general release. Similar to chemical, its new pass rate won't be reflected in the next exam passing rate chart.

 
Congrats to that one guy who retook the Architectural Exam and passed it lol

 
pjavery said:
Chemical is year-round, whereas Nuclear is a single-day test. Isn't it possible they might still include it? Or do you think they'll have a weird transition period between now and 2023 when all exams are CBT?
You might be right that it could still be included. But the nuclear CBT is on a different day in October than the paper tests, so who knows? At some point they'll have to get everything reported correctly.

 
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