North Korea

[matt267 PE]

My fear is that we are not testing them that way because we don't want to let N Korea and/or the rest of the world see how poorly they really perform.

I really hope that's not the reason. 

 

[Road Guy]

Maybe We should just throw the pussy hats at them?

 

[matt267 PE]

Maybe We should just throw the pussy hats at them?

Do you really want to be that guy?

 

[humner]

Just put it out there that he has something on the Clintons............................

 

[wilheldp_PE]

My fear is that we are not testing them that way because we don't want to let N Korea and/or the rest of the world see how poorly they really perform.

You could be right.  I can't find the numbers at the moment, but I remember hearing after the last successful test that the success rate of THAAD hitting moving targets is around 50%.

Here's an NYT article (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/10/world/asia/north-korea-military-options-trump.html) that provides another valid reason.

Even a limited strike against a North Korean missile on its launching pad or the shooting down of a missile in midair would pose risks that the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, might retaliate, setting off a spiral of escalation that could plunge the Korean Peninsula into war.

“In the event of a first strike against Kim, even a non-nuclear option, it is highly likely that Kim would retaliate at least conventionally against South Korea,” said James Stavridis, a retired four-star admiral who is now dean of Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. “This almost certainly would create an upward spiral of violence which would be extremely difficult to manage or to mitigate.”

 

[Dleg]

^Death tolls on both the civilian and military sides would be on a scale we haven't seen since WWII.  Any military option has a very high risk of that, which is why I think the only options are to A. accept N. Korea as a nuclear power and fall back on deterrence ("you now have 100 thermonuclear warheads aimed at you that will be launched at the first sign of provocation") or having him taken out from the inside, via a gigantic bounty or some other incentive.

 

[jeb6294]

If they could get rid of the nut job and let the people of N. Korea see what life is like in (most) the rest of the world, then I think they'd have a pretty good shot at getting the country straightened out.

 

[Road Guy]

Well you also have to keep in mind that the US Military has been very good about giving false intel on its operation as a method of deterrent.  Remember the F-117 stealth bomber that “didn’t exist” until the  90’s but yet it essentially first flew in the late 70’s..

I really wonder if N Korea is really that stupid to think they would survive if they initiate a nuke strike on any countries in the region. They have to know that there are probably at a minimum 6 ballistic missile submarines parked 30 miles from their shore? + lots of other shit in the region.

I still find it intriguing (not in a good way) how in 2017 we can still have these little dictators that can set up an entire family regime that is never questioned internally by anyone. Seems like unless there is some way to topple from within, killing the little leader will probably just sprout another one..

 

[Dleg]

The problem is that he knows that he CAN survive a nuclear strike.  Most of his defenses are well protected deep underground, including his artillery facing S. Korea.  All he has to do is wait for the smoke the clear, the roll out the guns and start firing chemical shells into Seoul, and hold his infantry in reserve until US and Korean troops cross the DMZ. That's his deterrent, and partly why he's so bold with his threats: he knows that any military action on our side will result in enormous civilian and military casualties, and he's counting on us not having the stomach for it.  

 

[Road Guy]

I wouldn't see any need to send in the ground troops, just annihilate them from the air every time they stick there nose out. May be painful for S Korea, but not much in the area worth our soldiers lives... with their severely outdated technology they wont really have much of a chance playing hide and seek

Or maybe see if they can send in Jimmy Carter again to give him another $5Billion..

 

[Dleg]

"May be painful" is an understatement. 

 

[Road Guy]

S Korea should have probably thought about moving Seoul further away from ARTY zone like 50 years ago? 

 

[Dleg]

Here's the thing that has me wondering what is really going on:  if Trump is telling the truth that our military is "locked and loaded" and ready for the full blown war that would be required to either preempt or retaliate for a missile strike, there would be massive preparations underway that would be reported on from every angle: evacuation of the tens of thousands of US citizens living in S. Korea, massive build up of forces in Guam and Japan, etc. But none of that is happening, and this lack of activity is being widely reported on. So Kim has to know that Trump's threats aren't currently backed.  And likewise, why would Kim fire four of his medium range missiles at the empty ocean around Guam as a demonstration?  The estimates I have seen reported say that he only has 10 of these, and he's going to give up 40% of that arsenal for show?  

Maybe this is all just theater, designed to appease the hawks that back both Trump and Kim, to precede a deal that has already been struck.  

 

[kevo_55]

Well, when I was in Soul last year they did have gas masks in their subway system.

If this does come to war, it would be a very short one. There will be some missiles thrown at South Korea but when the N Korean government falls the people up there will just give up. 

The common people in North Korea are starving.

 

[Dleg]

Don't underestimate an indoctrinated population.  The common people of Russia were starving during the German invasion of WWII, but they didn't give up.  Neither did the Japanese in WWII, even though in most cases later in the war they were starving and had no hope of winning by the time US forces engaged them. 

 

[Dleg]

Well now, even more evidence to suggest this is all just bluster:

NEWSWEEK EXCLUSIVE: NORTH KOREAN MISSILE CLAIMS ARE ‘A HOAX’

http://www.newsweek.com/trump-north-korea-missiles-nuclear-scientists-649702

“From the point of view of North Korean political leadership, the general reaction to the July 4 and July 28 launches could not have been better,” the authors wrote. “The world suddenly believed that the North Koreans had an ICBM that could reach the West Coast of the United States and beyond. But calculations we have made—based on detailed study of the type and size of the rocket motors used, the flight times of the stages of the rockets, the propellant likely used, and other technical factors—indicate that these rockets actually carried very small payloads that were nowhere near the weight of a nuclear warhead of the type North Korea could have, or could eventually have. These small payloads allowed the rockets to be lofted to far higher altitudes than they would have if loaded with a much-heavier warhead, creating the impression that North Korea was on the cusp of achieving ICBM capability.”

 

[Road Guy]

I agree with Kev it would fall quickly, like Iraq , but then there would be a whole new problem with the former regime going into hiding and then coming back (like Iraq)

No real way to win without the rest of the Asian Peninsula chipping in and doing there part.

 

[Road Guy]

And I honestly think they are just trying to scare the world into getting some more $$$ not to have a nuke program like 94......

 

[wilheldp_PE]

I dunno how much truth there is to it, but I was reading earlier today that China issued a statement on the situation.  Basically, they said if NK strikes first, they would remain neutral in the conflict.  If the US issues a pre-emptive strike on NK, China would declare war on the US.  There is an awful lot of rhetoric flying around right now, but China is one of a very few countries that I think the US could legitimately lose a war with.  They may not have our technical or tactical expertise, but they can literally throw humans at the problem until it goes away.

 

[Dexman PE PMP]

I dunno how much truth there is to it, but I was reading earlier today that China issued a statement on the situation.  Basically, they said if NK strikes first, they would remain neutral in the conflict.  If the US issues a pre-emptive strike on NK, China would declare war on the US.  There is an awful lot of rhetoric flying around right now, but China is one of a very few countries that I think the US could legitimately lose a war with.  They may not have our technical or tactical expertise, but they can literally throw humans at the problem until it goes away.

Plus from a financial standpoint, China has the US by the balls.