EB Mafia

[DLD PE]

Spoiler: 👻👻👻👻👻👻

@DLD PE can cassandra run out of visions?

No, but at the same time, I goofed a bit on the visions. I failed to remember this part:

"Your knowledge is not limited to those still living - there is a possibility that you will learn knowledge about those killed by the mafia (whose roles are not revealed to those who find their bodies)."

So I should have been throwing the nightkilled players on the random wheel. I will do that going forward.

The rules do not mention a limit on the visions, so as of right now, they are unlimited.

 

[blybrook PE]

@DLD PE is providing an incorrect vision the same as failing to provide a vision? Example, would the Cassandra be lynching themselves for giving incorrect information?

 

[DLD PE]

@DLD PE is providing an incorrect vision the same as failing to provide a vision? Example, would the Cassandra be lynching themselves for giving incorrect information?

Yes, I think that would constitute as failing to meet the requirements of the role.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

@DLD PE is providing an incorrect vision the same as failing to provide a vision? Example, would the Cassandra be lynching themselves for giving incorrect information?

Yes, but they have until the end of the following morning to state the correct information. They could give a false reading immediately, and then 23 hrs later after the next lynch give the real information. But by then it would be too late.

 

[JayKay PE]

This is how I assign the visions:

I list all remaining players (minus the Cassandra) on the random wheel generator. I spin the wheel and that person's role gets revealed to the Cassandra.

Likewise, I do something similar before each round I mod. I take all the players who signed up, and put them on my spreadsheet in the order they signed up. Then I put each role on the rando wheel (11 townies, 4 mafia, 1 cop, 1 doctor, 1 Cassandra). I spin the wheel and when a role comes up, that role gets assigned to the first player and that role is removed from the wheel. When the wheel lands on "Cassandra", that role automatically gets assigned to whomever got the previous role. I repeat until all roles are assigned.

I'm sure there's other ways to do it, but that's my method.

Oooooo, you play it different than me. My Cassandra can have visions about anyone, even if they are lynched, which I think happened a round of two ago when I mod'd.

 

[txjennah PE]

This is when I really like no PM rounds, because it's interesting to see this all analyzed in the open and trying to form my own ghostie conclusions on everything.

 

[MeowMeow PE]

Well I say we lynch Eye or Spit lol

I don’t want Eye to be mafia. I have a lot of doubts that she is. I’m very torn.
But the vision about Becs seems like such a huge coincidence. It makes me lean slightly more toward Eye (I’m sorry Eye if it really was just bad luck).

Ultimately, I’ll go with whatever you guys think is best. I guess this seems so simple to me because I know I’m town so I KNOW it has to be Spit or Eye. But I understand it’s not that easy for all you confirmed townies. All I can say is I promise promise promise I am town.

No matter what happens though, this game has been super interesting and so much fun!!!!!! And if mafia wins, they sure deserve it!

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Your thoughts @Dothracki PE ?

 

[FlangeheadPEAZ]

The Cassandra can only reveal the roles of potenitally four players. Spitfire, meow, the deceased doctor, and themselves. I'm not even sure the last one is possible (can we please get a ruling @DLD PE )

Quick event tree map:

1) We lynch eyehate tonight.
1a) eyehate is mafia -> town win
1b) eyehate is town
1b1) lynch one of meow/spit
1b1a) they're mafia -> town win
1b1b) they're town -> goes to cointoss or town loses

2) we lynch meow/spit tonight
2a) they're mafia ->town win
2b) they're town
2b1) eyehate does not announces vision before morning go to 1b1 above
2b2) eyehate announces they are town or the identity of dead doctor (p= 2/3 or .5) go to 1b1 above
2b3) before morning eyehate truthfully announces alignment of remaining unknown player (nominally p = 1/3 or .5 and assumes eyehate gives truthful vision)
2b3a) town lynches the known mafia or eyehate by POE. -> town win
2b4) eyehate falsely provides information on last unknown player -> town loss

Sometimes I feel I am playing a different game totally than the others lol I really need to pick up on what everyone is saying and what they actually mean....

 

[blybrook PE]

We have a one in 3 chance of picking the right person tonight.

I'm debating on who to vote for right now.

 

[Eye Hate Landscaping PE]

Well I say we lynch Eye or Spit lol

I don’t want Eye to be mafia. I have a lot of doubts that she is. I’m very torn.
But the vision about Becs seems like such a huge coincidence. It makes me lean slightly more toward Eye (I’m sorry Eye if it really was just bad luck).

Ultimately, I’ll go with whatever you guys think is best. I guess this seems so simple to me because I know I’m town so I KNOW it has to be Spit or Eye. But I understand it’s not that easy for all you confirmed townies. All I can say is I promise promise promise I am town.

No matter what happens though, this game has been super interesting and so much fun!!!!!! And if mafia wins, they sure deserve it!

I get the coincidence argument about becca. I keep reiterating, the only time I did not post my revelation immediately was when I was told becca was the cop- I did not know that was who they were nightkilling and wanted to prevent her from being the target. And apparently I was able to hide that post well enough that no one knew I was revealing that the cop was just killed.

I'd also like to point out that my first two votes were completely blind- like everyone else, and since then I have avoided voting for people cleared as townie or who were most obviously townie. I had a feeling that jean was being sneaky and I was wrong. I had/have a feeling that steel was protecting someone with his announcement of townie ++++ status early on...that made RBH and spit suspects. RBH has been cleared, Spit has not and Spit has a not-great voting record. Vote for me if you like but you'll be sorry tomorrow.

 

[Dothracki PE]

Your thoughts @Dothracki PE ?

I can see different resons to suspect all three non-confirmed townies.

Firstly, SF has not voted out mafia except for steel when they were lynched. The curious part is they were the first vote of that day for steel (3rd vote of the day). I said before maybe that this could have been some trick play that backfired on them.

Meow has voted out two mafia. I have bit of skepticism of how quickly they jumped on my vote for RBH, who we now know is a confirmed townie. I might have missed that part when I voted but it is so strange that RBH is still alive at this point in the round. Nevertheless, I think they are least likely mafia of the three. That is unless they are playing a really great game as mafia.

Eye I guess is confirmed to be the Cassandra, however I ask the question of why they are still alive after coming out saying they are the Cassandra. What makes JP a better target for NK? I don't know that I can discount them being townie aligned Cassandra at this point. Maybe they are the first mafia aligned Cassandra?

 

[Tiger15]

^This gif is so perfect I had to use it again!

 

[RBHeadge PE]

At the time of becca's NK there were 10 players. 8t 2m. Two players were revealed via vision at the time.
Random maf target 1/8 =12.5%
Random cassandra vision focus 1/7 = 14.2% (with dld's rules at the time)
Odds of coincidence 1/56 = 1.7%

The next part depends on ones statistical school of thought. If everything were done by pure chance, then its a huge coincidence (2%) that the mafia picked the same target that which the cassandra had a vision.
One could also argue, wrongly, that maybe the better way to look at it is the mafia choosing the same target as the cassandra. So like 13% which is certainly possible.

If one assumes that the mafia had a pool of candidates for NK that was less than the full town, for instance vets+(active players)-RBH, then it's more like 1/4. So that makes the coincidence more like 4%

 

[RBHeadge PE]

My modus operandi is to play the odds. The numbers are telling me to vote for eyehate.

And yet I still want to think this over.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

f%^& it.

@DLD PE I vote for @Spitfire6532

 

[RBHeadge PE]

If we're still playing tomorrow then I'm voting for eyehate.

 

[Dothracki PE]

@DLD PE I change my vote to @Spitfire6532

 

[DLD PE]

So it's:

2 votes each between @EyehatethePEexam PE and @Spitfire6532 ? Do I have that right?

 

[DLD PE]

3 votes for @Spitfire6532 ?