EB Mafia

[Eye Hate Landscaping PE]

@DLD PE I vote for @Spitfire6532. Hope others join me...

 

[RBHeadge PE]

@DLD PE When would the first Cassandra vision have occurred this round? Would it have been Monday night into Tuesday, or Tuesday night into Wednesday?

 

[DLD PE]

@DLD PE When would the first Cassandra vision have occurred this round? Would it have been Monday night into Tuesday, or Tuesday night into Wednesday?

The Cassandra was activated on Tuesday, so the first vision would have been given Tuesday night after the lynch.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

The Cassandra was activated on Tuesday, so the first vision would have been given Tuesday night after the lynch.

Thanks. For reason I thought the Cassandra was activated on that Monday.

@DLD PE I temporarily retract my vote for @EyehatethePEexam PE while I recompile and reconsider all of the available evidence.

 

[MeowMeow PE]

Wouldn’t it be funny if Eye really is not mafia and it was a huge coincidence Becs was NK the same night they got the vision about her?
It’s not impossible.

The choice to NK JP, and not a confirmed townie, does make me question things a little bit.

However, I think the evidence against Eye is damning. And a big reason I didn’t see it sooner I think was because I wanted RBH to be mafia for some reason and was trying to figure out a way that made sense for him to be. It clouded my judgement.

I feel like Eye’s voting record isn’t much better than Spit’s. The fact Eye is still alive is very sus. And if Becs NK was a coincidence, then that’s an awfully huge one. If by some miracle Eye isn’t mafia, we can get Spit tomorrow.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Never say that I'm unwilling to admit when I was wrong.

I goofed. My mistake was thinking that the Cassandra was activated on the first day (Monday) and not the second day (Tuesday). And that mistake has carried through with all of may analysis this round. It's why I missed that the Cassandra was still alive, and it also led me to believe that the evidence for @EyehatethePEexam PE = mafia was beyond reproach.

After relooking at the sequence of events I can no longer come to the exact same conclusion (i.e. that its ironclad). I believe we all need to reconsider the evidence before us.

I have a lot of things to post for consideration, but I need to finish something for work in the next couple hours. It has the obvious priority. I'll post more when I'm done with RL stuff.

 

[Eye Hate Landscaping PE]

@DLD PE When would the first Cassandra vision have occurred this round? Would it have been Monday night into Tuesday, or Tuesday night into Wednesday?

Tuesday night after the lynching.

 

[chart94 PE]

Write-up in the morning.

@chart94 was lynched by the town. He was a regular townie.

Told you guys. OH NO GHOST GHOST WOOOOOOO WOOOOO

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Okay, I'm stuck in a meeting which I don't need to attend.

A few random thoughts:

On the night of the no-nightkill

• there were two mafia remaining: Nole and last mafia.
• Nole learned he passed the PE earlier that day so he was probably celebrating and distracted.
• Spit was not online that evening.
• Eyehate was online that evening.
• A no-nightkill could be the results of insufficient votes or a tied vote.

Cassandra

• Eyehate has generally posted her visions asap which is generally a positive for the town.
• The notable exception to the above being the cop reveal and nightkill. It may have been a coincidence that this happened at the same time. If this were coupled with the square mafia reveal, then I would call this incontrovertible evidence of being mafia. But that is not the case, so for now its "merely" a strong mafia signal.
• Revealing me to be a townie very early last night, and then announcing all of the other confirmed townies is a town signal.
• If we look at confirming me: I was getting townie votes that evening. IIRC Eyehate was even openly speculating that I may still be mafia earlier that day. It was an easy setup for the mafia to either promote or allow through inaction the town to waste a lynch on me. To change that tune so quickly after the vision PM is both townie signal and negative mafia utility (through lost opportunity cost).
• Obviously announcing the other confirmed townies is helpful, although those people were generally also known-townies via vote.

Last night's nightkill

• Generally not the most optimal move the mafia could have made.
• Nightkilling JP would add to the earlier narrative that I was mafia. It further enhanced by making it look like I nightkilled the person who had already voted for me.
• However framing me was no longer a viable option. The cassandra cleared me immediately last night. To publicly try to lynch me (or doth or bly) is either showing one's mafia-ness or lack of attention.
• JP was not one of the cleared townies. By nightkilling him, it reduced the potential viable voting options for the town.

Voting Records

• No need to examine the voting records of the cleared townies. Who had already cast critical votes for the mafia anyway.
• Eyehate cast the lone vote for a mafia on Day 2. It was the second vote of the day.
• meow cast the initial vote for a mafia on Day 2 and that person was later voted off. It was a multiway tie at the time.
• spit cast the first vote for a mafia two days ago. They pointed out that Nole's story didn't add up. Such a move this late in the game has negative utility for the mafia. Although it could be spun as positive personal utility if it gains the town's trust. Duran did this about a year ago sacrificing fellow mafia square. He won that round solo. It's a very high risk medium reward strategy. IMHO it's a pretty low ROI and not something I would do by choice.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

The Cassandra can only reveal the roles of potenitally four players. Spitfire, meow, the deceased doctor, and themselves. I'm not even sure the last one is possible (can we please get a ruling @DLD PE )

Quick event tree map:

1) We lynch eyehate tonight.
1a) eyehate is mafia -> town win
1b) eyehate is town
1b1) lynch one of meow/spit
1b1a) they're mafia -> town win
1b1b) they're town -> goes to cointoss or town loses

2) we lynch meow/spit tonight
2a) they're mafia ->town win
2b) they're town
2b1) eyehate does not announces vision before morning go to 1b1 above
2b2) eyehate announces they are town or the identity of dead doctor (p= 2/3 or .5) go to 1b1 above
2b3) before morning eyehate truthfully announces alignment of remaining unknown player (nominally p = 1/3 or .5 and assumes eyehate gives truthful vision)
2b3a) town lynches the known mafia or eyehate by POE. -> town win
2b4) eyehate falsely provides information on last unknown player -> town loss

 

[blybrook PE]

@DLD PE, I retract my vote for @EyehatethePEexam PE for the time being. Finally had a chance to go through all of the additional information that's been posted.

 

[DLD PE]

The Cassandra can only reveal the roles of potenitally four players. Spitfire, meow, the deceased doctor, and themselves. I'm not even sure the last one is possible (can we please get a ruling @DLD PE )

This is how I assign the visions:

I list all remaining players (minus the Cassandra) on the random wheel generator. I spin the wheel and that person's role gets revealed to the Cassandra.

Likewise, I do something similar before each round I mod. I take all the players who signed up, and put them on my spreadsheet in the order they signed up. Then I put each role on the rando wheel (11 townies, 4 mafia, 1 cop, 1 doctor, 1 Cassandra). I spin the wheel and when a role comes up, that role gets assigned to the first player and that role is removed from the wheel. When the wheel lands on "Cassandra", that role automatically gets assigned to whomever got the previous role. I repeat until all roles are assigned.

I'm sure there's other ways to do it, but that's my method.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Alright, so if that the case, then if we lynch meow or spit, then eyehate can report back the identity of the other shortly after lynch.

But, and this is a big but, we're relying on eyehate being truthful in their announcement. A mafia cassandra would announce the remaining player is mafia regardless.

 

[Spitfire6532]

@DLD PE I will also retract my vote for @EyehatethePEexam PE after reading @RBHeadge PE 's posts.

I am trying to make sense of all the scenarios.

 

[Spitfire6532]

My biggest takeaways:

• Following scenario 2 would be a guaranteed win for Eyehate if we trust them and they are indeed the mafia + cassandra.
• Scenario 1 gives the town at least? a 50% chance of winning and multiple chances to win.

I definitely might be misunderstanding though, maybe someone else can point out some pros/cons that I am not seeing right away.

 

[DLD PE]

Vote Update:

2 - @EyehatethePEexam PE (@MeowMeow PE , @Dothracki PE , )
1 - @Spitfire6532 (@EyehatethePEexam PE )

 

[Tiger15]

 

[RBHeadge PE]

My biggest takeaways:

• Following scenario 2 would be a guaranteed win for Eyehate if we trust them and they are indeed the mafia + cassandra.
• Scenario 1 gives the town at least? a 50% chance of winning and multiple chances to win.

I definitely might be misunderstanding though, maybe someone else can point out some pros/cons that I am not seeing right away.

You more-or-less have the correct read on this situation.

This breaks down to the classical "prisoner's dilemma" game theory problem.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Scenario 2 is only viable for the town if we collectively decide that we 100% trust eyehate.

Scenario 1 works best if collectively feel that eyehate is most likely mafia.

A new scenario 3, assumes that the cassandra is "out of visions" and involves the town just picking the most likely mafia candidate on each vote. This scenario plays out similar to scenario 1.

My suggestion is to approach this as if the cassandra has exhausted her visions, since we can't trust any vision that comes tomorrow.

 

[beccabun PE]

A new scenario 3, assumes that the cassandra is "out of visions" and involves the town just picking the most likely mafia candidate on each vote. This scenario plays out similar to scenario 1.

My suggestion is to approach this as if the cassandra has exhausted her visions, since we can't trust any vision that comes tomorrow.

Spoiler: 👻👻👻👻👻👻

@DLD PE can cassandra run out of visions?