EB Mafia

[Eng_Girl95]

So, if we lost the doc last night, we’re gonna lose the cop tonight probably if we don’t nab the final mafia today. Though I guess if there’s only one more investigation left it wouldn’t matter? Am I thinking right?

 

[DLD PE]

So, if we lost the doc last night, we’re gonna lose the cop tonight probably if we don’t nab the final mafia today. Though I guess if there’s only one more investigation left it wouldn’t matter? Am I thinking right?

You are correct. More than likely the doc was nightkilled. The cop has one investigation left, so after today the cop effectively becomes a regular townie.

 

[Tiger15]

They should get to use their final investigation before being nightkilled tonight.

 

[BlueBlueprintPE PMP]

no surprise here

@txjennah PE was killed by the mafia

remaining players

@blybrook PE @ChebyshevII PE @DLD PE @Dothracki PE @eng_girl95 @EyehatethePEexam PE @jean15paul_PE @MeowMeow PE @RBHeadge PE @Spitfire6532 @vhab49_PE

 

[ChebyshevII PE PMP]

I don't understand how I'm still alive. And I recognize I'm public enemy #1 in this game, but please be assured that I am NOT mafia this round.

@BlueBlueprintPE I vote @EyehatethePEexam PE for now.

 

[MadamPirate PE]

 

[DLD PE]

I'm thinking either @eng_girl95 or @EyehatethePEexam PE should be investigated. Thoughts?

 

[RBHeadge PE]

I can't add much to my analysis today. I'll repost my thoughts in a few minutes.
We have one investigation left.
We will likely have to rely on social cues, priors, and behavior to root out the last mafia.

@ Everyone: what does your gut tell you?

 

[txjennah PE]

Whaaaaaat I got nightkilled????

 

[RBHeadge PE]

I've made some slight tweaks to yesterday's reads. In this case I broke up the townie+ category into two new categories reflecting that there was even some division within it yesterday.

Confirmed townies: @RBHeadge PE, @MeowMeow PE, @Spitfire6532 , @vhab49_PE

townie+++ @Dothracki PE
townie++ @DLD PE, @blybrook PE
townie+ , @eng_girl95 @jean15paul_PE
neutral @EyehatethePEexam PE @ChebyshevII PE

I'd prioritize our investigation or discussions from the bottom up on that list.

definitions
neutral = no evidence to support being town or mafia, or equal evidence for both
townie+ = exhibited some towniness. Either through statements or indirect voting
townie++ = voted or not voted in a way that harmed the mafia
townie+++ = voted in a way that caused active damage to the mafia

 

[DLD PE]

My gut tells me to look at Night 1 and see which combination of 3 players would most likely not vote or not come to a consensus for the night kill. Possibilities (since @squaretaper LIT AF PE was lynched and therefore would not be able to cast a vote):

@chart94 , @MadamPirate PE , @eng_girl95 - IIRC, eng_girl was inactive during the nightkill phase of Day 1, which leads me to want her investigated first.

@chart94 , @MadamPirate PE , @ChebyshevII PE - Cheby is normally an active player, and even when not active, as mafia he'll at least cast a nighkill vote. Cheby has emphasized more than once that he's town, and I'm inclined to believe him at this point.

@chart94 , @MadamPirate PE , @EyehatethePEexam PE - I don't remember how active or inactive @EyehatethePEexam PE was during this time, so I'm kind of neutral on this one. If the cop doesn't want to investigate eng_girl, I would consider Eyehate as my second choice.

@chart94 , @MadamPirate PE , @jean15paul_PE - @jean15paul_PE would most likely vote with another mafia if he anticipated being too busy to vote later on. I also don't think he's mafia. Same with @blybrook PE

My suggestion would be to investigate @eng_girl95 and vote for @EyehatethePEexam PE if eng_girl comes up town, but others please weigh in and point out any flaws in my thinking.

 

[MeowMeow PE]

I'm personally leaning more toward EG or JP right now.

I kind of believe Chebs for some reason.... he promised earlier in the game that he was townie. Can't remember from past games...Is he one of the ones who tends to not lie? Maybe not if everyone still is so sus of him. So maybe I'm being very naïve and I need to not believe him haha.

Eye said they weren't online at all on Friday and didn't come back on until Tuesday morning. Not sure if that's true, but if so then they couldn't have tried o NK RBH. Did anyone still alive in the game happen to notice if Eye was in fact logged off all day Friday until Tuesday morning?

I even am not so sure about blybrook. I know that Nole said in bold that bly is town. We had assumed he was Cassandra based on this, but we don't know for certain that he was. Also, after he put in bold that bly was town, then he started saying he was sus of him. No idea what all that was about...can't wait to get explanation after the game. But the voting that is making bly look good is only from day 1 and not creating the 3-way tie, right? Maybe they thought ahead and thought that not doing that would help make them look more town..... I don't know.

Ultimately, I'll investigate whoever you guys think I should, because I am nowhere near as good at this game or understanding everything!

 

[DLD PE]

I'm personally leaning more toward EG or JP right now.

I kind of believe Chebs for some reason.... he promised earlier in the game that he was townie. Can't remember from past games...Is he one of the ones who tends to not lie? Maybe not if everyone still is so sus of him. So maybe I'm being very naïve and I need to not believe him haha.

Eye said they weren't online at all on Friday and didn't come back on until Tuesday morning. Not sure if that's true, but if so then they couldn't have tried o NK RBH. Did anyone still alive in the game happen to notice if Eye was in fact logged off all day Friday until Tuesday morning?

I even am not so sure about blybrook. I know that Nole said in bold that bly is town. We had assumed he was Cassandra based on this, but we don't know for certain that he was. Also, after he put in bold that bly was town, then he started saying he was sus of him. No idea what all that was about...can't wait to get explanation after the game. But the voting that is making bly look good is only from day 1 and not creating the 3-way tie, right? Maybe they thought ahead and thought that not doing that would help make them look more town..... I don't know.

Ultimately, I'll investigate whoever you guys think I should, because I am nowhere near as good at this game or understanding everything!

If this is true, we can eliminate @EyehatethePEexam PE as a suspect, since only one mafia was alive at the time of @RBHeadge PE 's nightkill attempt, right?

 

[MeowMeow PE]

If this is true, we can eliminate @EyehatethePEexam PE as a suspect, since only one mafia was alive at the time of @RBHeadge PE 's nightkill attempt, right?

Yes I think so! And I am inclined to believe Eye for now. But again, don't know if I'm just being naïve.

 

[Tiger15]

...

@ Everyone: what does your gut tell you?

That @EyehatethePEexam PE is a regular townie.

I'd lean towards investigating @ChebyshevII PE to find out if he's telling the truth.

 

[ChebyshevII PE PMP]

I'm personally leaning more toward EG or JP right now.

I kind of believe Chebs for some reason.... he promised earlier in the game that he was townie. Can't remember from past games...Is he one of the ones who tends to not lie? Maybe not if everyone still is so sus of him. So maybe I'm being very naïve and I need to not believe him haha.

Eye said they weren't online at all on Friday and didn't come back on until Tuesday morning. Not sure if that's true, but if so then they couldn't have tried o NK RBH. Did anyone still alive in the game happen to notice if Eye was in fact logged off all day Friday until Tuesday morning?

I even am not so sure about blybrook. I know that Nole said in bold that bly is town. We had assumed he was Cassandra based on this, but we don't know for certain that he was. Also, after he put in bold that bly was town, then he started saying he was sus of him. No idea what all that was about...can't wait to get explanation after the game. But the voting that is making bly look good is only from day 1 and not creating the 3-way tie, right? Maybe they thought ahead and thought that not doing that would help make them look more town..... I don't know.

Ultimately, I'll investigate whoever you guys think I should, because I am nowhere near as good at this game or understanding everything!

I'll admit that I'm not always as honest as RB tends to be for this game's purposes. But I am absolutely telling the truth this time, and an investigation will reveal that.

 

[MeowMeow PE]

Guys, I think I really believe Chebs. If I'm wrong, I will make a formal apology and you can all come here and punch me in the arm (just not the face please)!

I think that the people most likely to try to NK RBH at that time would be EG or Eye. I'm leaning toward believing Eye this time. I've also seen that EG has been engaged in convo during the game. Doesn't mean she was engaged in convo for/about this game.....but still a little sus...seeing as if it was for this game, then it'd have to be with the mafia chat.

 

[Eng_Girl95]

@BlueBlueprintPE If the Cassandra fails to release their vision, they are automatically lynched by the town, and it overrides the voting of that day, so the person who got the most votes wouldn’t be lynched, right?

What this tells me is that since the person we lynched never got “saved” by being overridden by the Cassandra’s failed reveal, that means the Cassandra is:
A) Alive right now, or
B) One of the two nightkilled players, Steel or Txj. I doubt either of them were the Cassandra, so the Cassandra must still be in play.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Given the latest observations, I think we can safely move eyehate into the townie+++ category.

That leaves EG95, jean, and cheb as reasonable investigative targets.

 

[Eng_Girl95]

You don’t need to waste your last investigation on me. I promise I’m townie. I seriously did consider withdrawing from the game yesterday and I probably wouldn’t consider that if I was the only mafia member remaining.