Deflation is Setting In
- Thread starter wilheldp_PE
- Start date
Help Support Professional Engineer & PE Exam Forum:
wilheldp_PE
PE, LEED AP, SPAM KING
That prediction cannot be made by anybody because nobody knows what the government is going to do next to try to fix the economy (thereby accelerating the decline). And there will likely never be another Great Depression, at least not one exactly like the first one. The first one was caused by (with parallels to situations today in parenthesis):
1. Cyclical bust cycle in the economy (Check)
2. Over-indebtedness caused by the roaring 20's spending mentality (Check; the tech and housing bubbles, with negative savings rates)
3. The great stock market crash (No outright crash, but the housing bubble put a hurting on the Dow)
4. The dust bowl (Nope; We aren't an agricultural superpower any more, so this wouldn't hurt as bad now anyway).
5. Terrible monetary policy (Huge Check; ridiculous levels of deficit spending; tariffs on foreign goods)
6. Deflation (This is why I'm worried...this was basically the last thing that started happening before the GD hit it's worst levels).
The GD started as a really bad recession in 1930 started by the stock market crash in 1929. It wasn't the full-blown Great Depression until 1933. During that time, we got up to 23+% unemployment and bank failures started happening left and right. We are close to double digit unemployment already, and accelerating right now, and bank failures are picking up too.
We may well avoid a protracted depression, and I really hope we do, but all of the indicators from the last one are there, and the government seems bound and determined to make the same mistakes as last time.
benbo
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 11, 2006
- Messages
- 2,370
- Reaction score
- 3
In other words you don't know, you can make any dire hyperbolic predictions you want, and nobody can find out if you were correct.
wilheldp_PE
PE, LEED AP, SPAM KING
In other words, you didn't read any of my post, and just want to try to disprove my predictions without doing any research of your own.
Last edited by a moderator:
testee
supporting role
I've always considered deflation a good thing.
dastuff
Well-known member
wilheldp_PE
PE, LEED AP, SPAM KING
yea, but it's such a great smiley you really can never have enough of them in one thread.
Last edited by a moderator:
wilheldp_PE
PE, LEED AP, SPAM KING
I like that when I quoted 2 of them, they weren't synchronized...it looks like one is chasing the other.yea, but it's such a great smiley you really can never have enough of them in one thread.
benbo
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 11, 2006
- Messages
- 2,370
- Reaction score
- 3
I will say this - for the first time recently I have heard about the US dollar being replaced as the worldwide reserve currency. If that actually happens then I think there may actually be something to this and something to be concerned about.
I still wouldn't panic though.
I still wouldn't panic though.
wilheldp_PE
PE, LEED AP, SPAM KING
Iraq and Iran have both been talking about switching from the Petrodollar to the Petroeuro for about a decade now. The big news this morning is that Saudi Arabia is talking about it now.
csb
Well-known member
And they've been wiping their asses with the constitution!
Wait, wrong debate? Sorry.
Wait, wrong debate? Sorry.
RIP - VTEnviro
His Memory Eternal
Capt Worley PE
Run silent, run deep
Interesting history of recessions and depressions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_reces...e_United_States
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_reces...e_United_States
csb
Well-known member
Seems like the 19th Amendment would be printed on something soft and delicate
Capt Worley PE
Run silent, run deep
I consider the 18th to be worthy of TP duty.
