The decline of the privately owned auto

[Capt Worley PE]

This prediction sounds bold primarily for the fact that most of us don't think about technology – or the history of technology – in century-long increments: “We’re probably closer to the end of the automobility era than we are to its beginning,” says Maurie Cohen, an associate professor in the Department of Chemistry and Environmental Science at the New Jersey Institute of Technology. “If we’re 100 years into the automobile era, it seems pretty inconceivable that the car as we know it is going to be around for another 100 years.”

Interesting editorial: http://www.theatlanticcities.com/technology/2013/03/what-steamship-and-landline-can-tell-us-about-decline-private-car/4930/

I wonder how true it is. Already, vehicle use is declining among the young.

Of course, it does all seem to be a leftist/European dream of sorts.

 

[snickerd3]

This prediction sounds bold primarily for the fact that most of us don't think about technology – or the history of technology – in century-long increments: “We’re probably closer to the end of the automobility era than we are to its beginning,” says Maurie Cohen, an associate professor in the Department of Chemistry and Environmental Science at the New Jersey Institute of Technology. “If we’re 100 years into the automobile era, it seems pretty inconceivable that the car as we know it is going to be around for another 100 years.”

Interesting editorial: http://www.theatlanticcities.com/technology/2013/03/what-steamship-and-landline-can-tell-us-about-decline-private-car/4930/

I wonder how true it is. Already, vehicle use is declining among the young.

Of course, it does all seem to be a leftist/European dream of sorts.

They really should have qualified that answer to say where those young are located...closer to big cities with good public trans and still living at home with mom and dad...there is no need for car. but if you go into the smaller rural towns I would bet that stat hasn't changed. cars are a necessity

 

[Capt Worley PE]

This prediction sounds bold primarily for the fact that most of us don't think about technology – or the history of technology – in century-long increments: “We’re probably closer to the end of the automobility era than we are to its beginning,” says Maurie Cohen, an associate professor in the Department of Chemistry and Environmental Science at the New Jersey Institute of Technology. “If we’re 100 years into the automobile era, it seems pretty inconceivable that the car as we know it is going to be around for another 100 years.”

Interesting editorial: http://www.theatlanticcities.com/technology/2013/03/what-steamship-and-landline-can-tell-us-about-decline-private-car/4930/

I wonder how true it is. Already, vehicle use is declining among the young.

Of course, it does all seem to be a leftist/European dream of sorts.

They really should have qualified that answer to say where those young are located...closer to big cities with good public trans and still living at home with mom and dad...there is no need for car. but if you go into the smaller rural towns I would bet that stat hasn't changed. cars are a necessity

I think you are correct.

Also, there is, IMO, a big disconnect between the folks who write these types of articles, who generally live in big cities, and what happens outside of the big cities.

 

[Dexman PE PMP]

^^^ Or head west. Even with the public transportation network being built around the Denver area, it is very difficult to live without a car (unless you're essentially downtown). Most western cities are developed with a TON of urban / suburban sprawl which makes owning a car a necessity. Although I have seen a decline in number of cars owned by families with a stay-at-home parent...

 

[Supe]

The fact is, a lot of the cities that are rapidly developing never had the infrastructure in place to promote the use of public transportation, and for geographical reasons, most of those will probably never be updated (Charlotte is a prime example of this, with one of the most useless trains ever installed that never extended anywhere near where it would have been effective.) So, if cars end up going out the window, hopefully our jetpack development is far enough along by then.

 

[snickerd3]

^^^ Or head west. Even with the public transportation network being built around the Denver area, it is very difficult to live without a car (unless you're essentially downtown). Most western cities are developed with a TON of urban / suburban sprawl which makes owning a car a necessity. Although I have seen a decline in number of cars owned by families with a stay-at-home parent...

Yeah I don't know how I would manage as a SAHM with no car...dr appts, grocery shopping, school stuff...I guess if the other parent's job is local they could drop them off/pick up for work. But technically we are a single car family since mr snick has a company vehicle.

 

[Capt Worley PE]

^^^ Or head west. Even with the public transportation network being built around the Denver area, it is very difficult to live without a car (unless you're essentially downtown). Most western cities are developed with a TON of urban / suburban sprawl which makes owning a car a necessity. Although I have seen a decline in number of cars owned by families with a stay-at-home parent...

Yeah I don't know how I would manage as a SAHM with no car...dr appts, grocery shopping, school stuff...I guess if the other parent's job is local they could drop them off/pick up for work.

Or, if the commute wasn't too bad, one parent could ride a bike while the other kept the car.

It is kinda funny how cities/suburbs developed with the street railway as an integral part of the community until about the late 20s, when used cars got so cheap that anyone could own a personal vehicle of some sort. Then folks flocked to areas that were once pastureland, and we kinda had to have cars.

I think it would take a HUGE cultural/technical shift to get us away from the POV. It is just so convenient.

 

[blybrook PE]

A decline you say; I reckon that could happen in more populated areas where mass transit is more prevalent.

Glad I skew the figures slightly since I currently own & operate 3 different vehicles. The most was 5, but have sold off 2 within the past year. Will be getting rid of one more come this summer as the body had finally rusted beyond repair. I don't know if I'll replace it anytime soon since #3 will undergo some modifications and become the new plow truck.

Then again, I grew up in a rural setting and still live in one. if you don't have at least one spare vehicle, you don't get your chores done.

 

[mudpuppy]

I hope the replacement is flying cars! Or teleporters!

 

[snickerd3]

^either would be great...transporters would be better though...that would cut travel time a lot more

 

[Road Guy]

Article is wrong, were going backward, in Atlanta their talking about bus rapid transit. I mean didn't we evolve out if the bus? Not in Atlanta mind you...

 

[Capt Worley PE]

The thing with mass transit is it requires a density that only a few larger cities have. Other places, it'd work OK, but the management would have to get creative. Unfortunately, the feds only give local transit authorities money if they pretty much follow the big city model. This ensures that the system is expensive while not meeting the unique needs of that smaller city.

IMO, most local transit authorities COULD actually be pretty useful if they managed to get off th federal teat.

 

[Flyer_PE]

If I have to go into Chicago for anything, my default travel mode is the train. Problem is, even as handy as it is, it still relies on government subsidies to exist. I'd rather see it sink or swim on its own merits rather than depend on taxpayer money to keep nearly empty trains running in the middle of the day.

 

[ktulu]

"I'd rather see it sink or swim on its own merits rather than depend on taxpayer money to keep nearly empty trains running in the middle of the day."

I think this is happens in most of the mid-sized cities. Definitely happens in Montgomery.

 

[Road Guy]

There isnt a single public (or private) transportation system on the planet that is self funded, even the one in China where most people dont own cars

The Bus system in the County where I live requires $12 million a year from the General Fund to Operate & that's after Federal Transit Money, FairBox Fee's, and advertising... And once you have it you really cannot take it away..

So you have a county of 800,000 people being taxed for a ridership that is around 50,000 riders per day... I guess there isnt anything wrong with that? oh wait...

 

[Capt Worley PE]

^^Columbia doesn't even have a quarter of the daily riders and costs almost twice as much.

Luckily, I live outside that county. We only pay $20K a year so 6-7 people (no lie, I was on the bus) can go back and forth to the airport once per day.

 

[mudpuppy]

So you have a county of 800,000 people being taxed for a ridership that is around 50,000 riders per day... I guess there isnt anything wrong with that? oh wait...

I'd imagine there is a benefit for the other 750,000 people. Say, 10,000 fewer cars on the road? Reduced road maintenance taxes? Less congestion?

 

[Capt Worley PE]

So you have a county of 800,000 people being taxed for a ridership that is around 50,000 riders per day... I guess there isnt anything wrong with that? oh wait...

I'd imagine there is a benefit for the other 750,000 people. Say, 10,000 fewer cars on the road? Reduced road maintenance taxes? Less congestion?

Vehicle service job loss... loss of tax revenue from fuel taxes...buses harder on the road than private cars....

Everything is a tradeoff.

 

[Dexman PE PMP]

There isnt a single public (or private) transportation system on the planet that is self funded, even the one in China where most people dont own cars

You would be hard pressed to find very many roadway systems that don't rely on some higher form of government assistance (cities relying on counties, counties relying on states, states relying on feds)...

 

[Road Guy]

they mostly rely on the federal gas tax, Roads & bridges dont come from FICA

some counties, citities vote in an extra tax to make up for the gap in the funding from the federal gas tax, but the gas tax is basically the only fair tax that their is, dont want to pay it? walk or bike..