The Beginning of the End for Suburban America

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Capt Worley PE

Run silent, run deep
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In the years following World War II, the United States experienced an unprecedented consumption boom. Anything you could measure was growing. A Rhode Island-sized chunk of land was bulldozed to make new suburbs every single year for decades. America rounded into its present-day shape.
Along the way, there were three inexorable trends at the base of the societal pyramid. First, we plowed more energy into our homes each and every year. We cooled and heated our houses more (sometimes wastefully, sometimes not), brought in more and more appliances, added televisions and computers and phones. Per capita electricity shot up from about 4,000 kilowatt-hours per US resident to over 13,000 kilowatt-hours by the 2000s. Second, we needed more electricity because our houses got huge. The median home size shot up from about 1,500 square feet in the early 1970s to more than 2,200 square feet in the mid-200s. Third, we drove more and more miles every year to get around and between our sprawled-out cities. Back in 1960, Americans drove 0.72 trillion miles. By 2000, that number had reached 2.75 trillion miles. In 2007, vehicle miles traveled hit 3.02 trillion.

Now, though, the relentless growth in those figures is coming to an end. The AP's Jonathan Fahey reported last week that the utility company research consortium, the Electric Power Research Institute, projected that residential electricity demand would drop over the next ten years. "From 1980 to 2000, residential power demand grew by about 2.5 percent a year. From 2000 to 2010, the growth rate slowed to 2 percent," Fahey wrote. "Over the next 10 years, demand is expected to decline by about 0.5 percent a year, according to the Electric Power Research Institute, a nonprofit group funded by the utility industry." That's due, in part, to the decrease in the median size of new homes in recent years. The average size of a new home in 2010 is nearly 130 square feet smaller than in 2007.

Meanwhile, the number of miles that Americans drive fell in 2008 and 2009 -- even as gas prices fell off their highs. In 2010, Americans drove a little more, but so far in 2011, we're driving less. In other words, the growth in total vehicle miles traveled has stalled. And if you look at vehicle miles traveled per person, the picture is even more clear. On a per capita basis, people have been driving less for almost a decade. Now, with gas prices creeping back toward record high territory, we can expect the new downward trends to continue.

Taken together, the end of growth in residential electricity consumption and vehicle miles traveled form a momentous signal. The United States we all grew up with is changing, or rather, it's changed and the numbers are beginning to reflect that. The growth in housing size, electricity demand and miles traveled were the hallmarks of the suburban/exurban era. They were the statistics of sprawl -- but also of economic growth. Now that their relentless upward march has stopped, what happens? We need a new model for American prosperity that doesn't require ever greater injections of fossil energy. That's a generational challenge that hasn't been captured by the pro- or anti-green jobs rhetoric here in Washington.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Beginnin...625650.html?x=0

I don't see this as the end of the suburbs. I think you'll see a continued trend towards subdivisions with smaller houses and people swtching to smaller, more fuel efficient cars. Despite what the new urbanists would have you believe , I don't beleive there is a big market for in-town units or live/work units, except for maybe retirees wishing to downsize and rid themselves of the yard.

 
agree I dont think its a "greener" reason, but I know that in 10 more years I wont have a need for the house I have now and will be more than willing to go down to something smaller, preferably a single wide trailer in Marathon, Florida....

 
i can't see the article it is blocked for "finance" but it takes a certain type of personality to live in a city environment. The suburbs will never die.

 
I could maybe see the trend back towards the cities in the DC-Philly-NYC megalopolis, but very few other places in the US.

 
Anybody remember the old towns where the main street was lined with 2-story buildings that had a merchant on the ground floor and the living quarters (for the owner/manager) on the second floor?

I visited Raleigh recently and in some sections downtown, you could easily live, work, shop, dry-cleaning, hair cuts, etc. in short walking distance.

 
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Anybody remember the old towns where the main street was lined with 2-story buildings that had a merchant on the ground floor and the living quarters (for the owner/manager) on the second floor?
Sumter, SC is doing this on Main Street. I don't know how they have been selling.

They are also doing this in Columbia, SC, and what few units they have are all rented out. However, they sit forever as condos.

 
Anybody remember the old towns where the main street was lined with 2-story buildings that had a merchant on the ground floor and the living quarters (for the owner/manager) on the second floor?
I visited Raleigh recently and in some sections downtown, you could easily live, work, shop, dry-cleaning, hair cuts, etc. in short walking distance.
our town has a street like that...although none of them are grocery type stores. THere isn't a single drycleaner in town.

There are families living above there are some businesses in the upper level too. ALthough the turnover on the lower level is rather high. There are several right near the intersection that have changed hands at least 3-4 times since we have been here the 3.75 yrs.

 
The suburbs will never die.
Darn right they won't! We have Tom Hanks to protect them!

burbs.jpg


 
i really miss suburbia life...this rural living is crazy!!
I was raised in the sticks, but I do enjoy the conveniences of suburbia. About the only thing I really, truly miss is being able to see the stars and the Milky Way at night.

 
seeing the stars is nice. I think if I didn't have to drive an hr each way to work it wouldn't be so bad, but a lot of places are closed before we get home during the week or we have to drive to a big city a weekend each month to get the stuff we can't get in town.

 
I love suburbia. I can even see the stars at night at my house. The only downside is the fact that I have a ~1hr 15min commute each way, but I have a fun car to drive to help offset that.

 
I live way out, also, and have an hour and a half commute each way. My husband and I work close to each other and car pool, so it makes it a lot better.

 
I can drive in 4 minutes or bike in about 8 to work. I don't think I've ever lived in a town big enough for there to be parts considered urban versus suburban. It's either "in town" or "out in the country/county."

 
Im in subrubia but also have a 10 minute commute.. sometimes I drive around the block just to get a little more time to "mentally prepare" for work i.e. listen to radio, etc, etc, etc, etc,

 
I work in a large chemical facility / plant and I am glad I don't live within its blast radius. However, if I worked in an "office building", I wouldn't mind living close to work.

 
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