Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Chucktown PE]

So this happens every year. NOAA makes some ridiculous prediction, they're not even close 90% of the time, but they keep doing this year after year. At the end of hurricane season I'll tally it up and see how far off they were.

Up to 14 hurricanes predicted for Atlantic storm season

[SIZE=12pt]Up to 14 hurricanes predicted for Atlantic storm season
[/SIZE]Thu May 27, 10:29 am ETWASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Atlantic storm season could produce as many as 14 hurricanes this year, the U.S. government's top climate agency predicted on Thursday, setting the scene for potentially the most intense season since 2005.

In its first forecast for the storm season that begins next Tuesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast 14 to 23 named storms, with 8 to 14 developing into hurricanes, making it one of the most active ever.

Three to 7 of those could be major Category 3 or above hurricanes, with winds of more than 110 miles per hour (177 km per hour), the agency said, echoing earlier predictions from meteorologists for a particularly severe season that could disrupt U.S. oil, gas and refinery operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

In addition to the risk that major hurricanes can pose to about one-quarter of U.S. oil production and more than a 10th of natural gas output offshore in the Gulf, this year's storms threaten to complicate efforts to combat the environmental disaster of BP's gushing oil well.

 

[Master slacker]

Gotta get everyone in a tizzy so "climate change" rhetoric can be pushed. That's my personal take on the matter.

 

[snickerd3]

great so now the price of gas will magically increase 30 cents this evening. fear mongering at its finest

 

[Paul S]

The hard part Chuck, is that there very well may be that amount this year, but almost all of those never reach land and die off in the middle of the Atlantic. These are the ones we don't hear of.

 

[Master slacker]

Remember the number prediction in 2006 (the year after Katrina)?

 

[snickerd3]

Remember the number prediction in 2006 (the year after Katrina)?

no what was it?

 

[Chucktown PE]

The hard part Chuck, is that there very well may be that amount this year, but almost all of those never reach land and die off in the middle of the Atlantic. These are the ones we don't hear of.

we hear about them down here, in fact we usually hear about the disturbances that blow into the eastern Atlantic from the Sahara well before they even become tropical depressions.

Remember the number prediction in 2006 (the year after Katrina)?

no what was it?

2006, the year after Katrina, NOAA predicted 13-16 named storms and CSU predicted 17 named storms. There were 10.

2005, the year of Katrina, NOAA predicted 12-15 named storms and CSU predicted 13. There were 28.

Basically, they don't have a freaking clue. Which is fine. But they shouldn't pretend that they do.

 

[Paul S]

I wish we had the same forgiveness with engineering assumptions.

 

[Dleg]

So what you guys are saying is that weather forecasters should basically give up? And make no attempt whatsoever to predict, and therefore, plan for the weather? Throw in the towel and change careers to become investment bankers?

It's all a socialist conspiracy anyway, to somehow advance some evil agenda that hides behind "global warming". I get my climate science from Investors Business Daily. Those guys know their shit. For instance, I learned from an IBD article my parents forwarded to me, that the Arctic ice sheet is indeed shrinking, but that's because of underwater volcanoes all throughout the arctic. NOT NOT NOT global warming. Certainly nothing us humans have done. No way. Saying so would bad for business! Let's wait for IBD to predict the weather. We don't need "scientists". Big Money will always look out for our better interests.

Maybe your Atlantic forecasters suck. I don't know. I do remember the post-Katrina year being way off. But in all seriousness I've found the Pacific predictions to be pretty spot-on. I don't attempt to compare numbers, just tropical activity and climate in general. They do a pretty good job out here.

 

[Chucktown PE]

Dleg,

I didn't mean it as a knock on scientists or a claim that IBD might do it better. But I think it's pretty bold to say "there will be 9-13 named storms in the Atlantic basin this year" when they don't even come close with their predictions. I think they should stick to saying something like "conditions are favorable for a more active tropical cyclone season this year". At least that way they don't screw up their credibility. And really, what can you do to plan for a hurricane? Other than making sure you have plywood to board up windows and making sure you have a sufficient supply of drinking water, there's not much you can do. Plus, once a storm actually forms it usually takes about two weeks for it to cross the Atlantic, so you have some preparation time there.

 

[Dleg]

I think the big disaster agencies and even insurance companies use the data to prepare for it. That's more what I meant - knowing how much "might" have to be spent on responses in a given year. Some idea is better than no idea. At least with hurricanes, that can be done to a degree. As opposed to earthquakes and other disasters. At least you know what "might" happen, and number to hang your hat on works wonders in budgeting.

On an individual basis, it doesn't make much of a difference, unless you're just interested in it. I find it interesting.

I wasn't trying to jump down your throat, there were other comments above here that got to me. I get disturbed by this seeming perception among some that it's cool or politically correct (for the conservatives) to knock science. History isn't generally kind to those who hold to that sort of attitude.

 

[Road Guy]

90' deep in the keys last week the water temp was 79 degrees. I think I read where they base a lot of predictions on the water temp , that's the warmest it's been in a while last two years at that depth my dive computer read 73 at the warmest

But hurricane predictions are still not as hard as stormwater modeling....

 

[Master slacker]

Remember the number prediction in 2006 (the year after Katrina)?

no what was it?

After Katrina in 2005, "scientists" and "climate experts" believed that the climate change phenomena was going to further the devastation of hurricanes in coming years. They said that there were going to be 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Guess what... the actual total was 10, 5, and 2 respectively. And guess what again... that's about average for a given hurricane season.

It's so easy to get everyone in a tizzy ahead of time when you label yourself an "expert" with predictions, but fail to let everyone know that you're never correct. Halfway through the season, these "experts" always revamp their predictions. And then, towards the end, they'll redo their numbers again to more closely match the actual. Why do we even expect or want predictions from these asshats?

 

[Capt Worley PE]

Trying to predict the number of hurricanes in a season, even a few days before the season starts, is a fools errand. It really just sells papers.

The real important task is whats going to happen in the next few days, and they are pretty good at doing that.

 

[Chucktown PE]

Trying to predict the number of hurricanes in a season, even a few days before the season starts, is a fools errand. It really just sells papers.
The real important task is whats going to happen in the next few days, and they are pretty good at doing that.

Agreed. And I guess the other thing that I should have said in my original post is that it will really be impossible for the predictions to get any better. Chaos theory basically says that it will be mathematically impossible to predict the weather more than 7 days in advance because that far out, variables and functions that are seemingly unimportant, eventually have a large impact on the overall weather model.

 

[Slugger926]

I have seen data somewhere that underwater volcanoes has more to do with the number of hurricanes than typical statistical data used to predict storms over land.

 

[Chucktown PE]

I also read something this morning that said the equatorial water temperature is 6 to 7 degrees higher than normal for this time of year. There are also some interesting theories with regards to the black oil in the gulf possibly heating that water up to higher than normal temperatures. Higher water temperatures and lower upper level wind shear are the prime ingredients for hurricanes.