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2019 Novel Coronavirus

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I’m tempted to look up the budget to see how much we have paid these fools the last 30 years but I am afraid what I’ll find.....


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Most of this has been basically throwing bull excrement at wall to see what sticks.

 

 

 

Edited by Platypus Engineer

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Science has progressed tremendously since the 1918 influenza pandemic.  The microorganism that caused it was unknown at the time. That influenza is caused by a virus wasn't discovered until the 1930s, and a vaccine wasn't available until the 1940s.  The actual strain of H1N1 that caused the 1918 pandemic was not fully identified until 1997.

The SARS-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19 was identified and fully sequenced within 2 months of its first known emergence, and vaccine candidates were developed within days of that. Even Anthony Fauci believes that more than one of them will work and be available around the end of the year.

But knowing how the virus affects the human body and spreads can still only be determined by observation, and statistical analysis of those observations. Unfortunately good statistics requires a lot of observations, and even more unfortunately these observations are often in the form of deaths, and especially rare outlier deaths that indicate some of the more unusual ways the virus kills, which take even more time to accumulate.

And until a vaccine is available, the only way to reduce the spread of infection and deaths is through the age old practices of isolation, quarantine, and social distancing.  The effectiveness of certain specific measures such as masks, surface disinfection, eating in restaurants etc. can also be measured only after the accumulation of even more data, often much more subtle and difficult to obtain than deaths.

But hey, yeah, let's just throw away our public health infrastructure because their experts haven't been 100 percent correct on a brand new disease and in an instantaneous fashion, or have had to go back and revised recommendations after more data has been collected. Things worked just fine back before science, right?

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With you @dleq A lot we don’t fully know yet and we are a long way from being done with this.  If we get a vaccine by the end of the year, it will be like the modern day accomplishment of landing on the moon. 

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Sounds like excuses to me..

;)

But Imagine if engineers were allowed the same mistake tolerances as scientists.....

Oh damn..... guess that bridge design model didn’t work... oh well let’s build it again a little stronger this time...

30M people were put out of work. I think they deserve some heat for that.

They didn’t really develop a vaccine for the last round of SARS they (scientists) just got lucky cause it killed people so quick there wasn’t a chance for it to spread... but I am sure the scientist think they did something..

And if there is a cure or vaccine it won’t be developed by the cdc but some private company. The CDC will be like the worthless politician or government manager that shows up to the ribbon cutting ceremony for a project they didn’t do any work on and gets to hold a shovel..

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The role of the CDC and your state and local public health departments is mostly in providing the science-based measures that can be taken to control the spread of disease and reduce illness and death. Vaccine and other medical countermeasures are mostly developed by the private sector, often with huge investments in tax dollars, or promises of government mandates such as vaccinations.  Despite the many unknowns and having to base decisions on assumptions and other similar diseases, there is no doubt that these measures saved and can still save hundreds of thousands of lives: the mathematics of unchecked disease spread is pretty straightforward.  It's the job of our elected leaders, not the public health agencies, to balance these measures with job losses and essentially decide how many deaths they are willing to stomach in order to preserve the economy (that decision is incompatible with the Hippocratic oath and the ethics of most public health professions, even engineers).  That's a shit sandwich no matter how you approach it.

And I think we can both agree that the behavior of engineering materials is a lot simpler to predict, with great accuracy.  But the engineering analogy to what you are accusing the public health professionals of is spending too much to make the bridge safe, when it would be possible to save a lot of money if we are willing to let that bridge collapse and take a certain amount of unlucky people with it. 

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I am mainly just being a dick Dleg..

But... (& I was right I shouldn't have looked it up) The last 10 years the CDC has spent $100 Billion dollars of our money.. & I mean seriously the Flu shot isn't even a sure thing.....And I still have to pay for it!!

I still feel like we need to send in the Bobs

 

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The whole quarantine effort was destined to fail in the US.  One of the largest countries in the world with the most personal freedoms and least oppressive regimes - there is no part of that which even remotely hints at successful isolation efforts.  Even the public safety argument wasn't clear cut - are you really saving lives when layoffs/unemployment costs millions of citizens their employer-provided healthcare benefits?  Create homelessness?  Create enough unrest that everyone is on a hair trigger?

I can't really fault the outrage it's caused, because the elected officials continue to pander instead of picking a side and sticking to it.  No groups!  Except we'll just threaten you with a fine and won't enforce it.  No public gatherings!  Except we'll allow certain protests and won't even require the government employees working at the protest to follow our own COVID protocols.  No public events!  Except we'll allow NASCAR or other big moneymakers, but then prohibit political rivals to do the same.  How will we fix it?  We'll threaten to go back to the same quarantine conditions that statistically weren't working in the first place...

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On 6/12/2020 at 11:10 PM, Dleg said:

Science has progressed tremendously since the 1918 influenza pandemic.  The microorganism that caused it was unknown at the time. That influenza is caused by a virus wasn't discovered until the 1930s, and a vaccine wasn't available until the 1940s.  The actual strain of H1N1 that caused the 1918 pandemic was not fully identified until 1997.

The SARS-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19 was identified and fully sequenced within 2 months of its first known emergence, and vaccine candidates were developed within days of that. Even Anthony Fauci believes that more than one of them will work and be available around the end of the year.

But knowing how the virus affects the human body and spreads can still only be determined by observation, and statistical analysis of those observations. Unfortunately good statistics requires a lot of observations, and even more unfortunately these observations are often in the form of deaths, and especially rare outlier deaths that indicate some of the more unusual ways the virus kills, which take even more time to accumulate.

And until a vaccine is available, the only way to reduce the spread of infection and deaths is through the age old practices of isolation, quarantine, and social distancing.  The effectiveness of certain specific measures such as masks, surface disinfection, eating in restaurants etc. can also be measured only after the accumulation of even more data, often much more subtle and difficult to obtain than deaths.

But hey, yeah, let's just throw away our public health infrastructure because their experts haven't been 100 percent correct on a brand new disease and in an instantaneous fashion, or have had to go back and revised recommendations after more data has been collected. Things worked just fine back before science, right?

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^ for $100 Billion they dont get a clap from me.. (maybe the CDC didnt run the original model that said millions were going to die) 

 I wouldn't say the "lockdown"  failed, but I think it was obvious pretty quick it wasn't going to kill millions and as soon as the curve began to be flattened more states could have gone the route of Georgia and let people "work", feed their families, pay bills, etc..

I really think you keep the mass gatherings like sports / movies / concerts on the no go list for a while - but it seems like most everything else will be able to function with different rules.  It sucks for the regular joes working in the "entertainment" industry but who really gives a shit in the long run if all of Hollywood and these over hyped athletes never work again?

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I think it should be pointed out that I made this meme while leading a myteams meeting with my video on

Heros.png

 

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I don't think anyone at CDC is doing victory laps. If anything, I suspect that most of them are pretty embarrassed about how the US has handled this pandemic. And no, what they're primarily embarrassed about is not their agency's performance. 

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If you want to see how the models work, play around with this:

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html?CFR=0.02&D_hospital_lag=5&D_incbation=5.2&D_infectious=2.9&D_recovery_mild=11.1&D_recovery_severe=7.75&I0=1&InterventionAmt=0.8&InterventionTime=25.333333333333336&P_SEVERE=0.2&R0=2.6&Time_to_death=32&logN=12.12

I can't seem to save the adjusted population for the whole country, so you will have to do that yourself.  The rest of the parameters were based on the state of knowledge back at the beginning of April, by a local doctor on a government advisory board here. Not the CDC. 

The main parameter to play with for simulating social distancing is the basic reproduction rate Ro. Starting point is 2.6, averaged across the population.  It can go as high as 14 (Princess Diamond  cruise ship, USS Theodore Roosevelt seems to have pushed that to around 20), or less than 1 for effective social distancing measures. 

The case fatality rate is set at 2.0, although it is currently running at 5.5 in the US. You can play with that, too. 

See what you can get. 

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just an afternoon funny

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So true:

 

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I think the worst part of this so far is my kids now only speak in "Tik Tok" language - if you know what that is then you know what I mean, if you dont then be thankful!!

 

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1 hour ago, Road Guy said:

I think the worst part of this so far is my kids now only speak in "Tik Tok" language - if you know what that is then you know what I mean, if you dont then be thankful!!

 

Have they gotten you to do any of the dances yet?

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Anthony Fauci in an excellent interview covering all of the topics and concerns above, in particular America's lack of trust in science, plus more including life as an elderly sex symbol:

https://www.hhs.gov/podcasts/learning-curve/learning-curve-05-dr-anthony-fauci-science-is-truth.html?c

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Minneapolis police built a wall around their building.  As an engineer...I just...please don't.

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I've never seen anyone grout using plywood and expanding foam before!  

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I personally enjoy the lack of support on the corner, where it's just hanging over the edge.  I mean, these have grooves specifically so the blocks lock, and they somehow, somehow, installed them so they don't.  It's actually amazing, tbh.

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