What are the chances that I passed the PE?

[abourne]

Deleted at request of original poster

I was told if you solve 38 to 40 of the morning problems, you only need 10-12, 15 max, of the afternoon to pass the test.

I'm worried because I scored only about 70% in the morning. I didn't know how to do the simple graphics problems or the electrical stuff. I'll need to know that if I take it again. Also, I found out there are two problems that I thought I got correct which were wrong.

It's not clear where the cutoff is going to be, so given that many people feel good, if I'm closer to 60% overall rather than 70%, is what worries me.

 

[maximus808]

abourne,

Try not to worry about if you passed or failed. That really stressed me out last time. I would enjoy the 2-3 months before the results of the exam. Catch the time you missed with your family, friends, hobbies, and things you enjoyed to do before studying for the exam. I was so worried about how I did the last time that I basically was more worried waiting for the results than actually studying for it haha. But here' my analysis from a previous test taker (my first time was April 2010.)

I believe the cut score is 56/80 which is 70%. Keep in mind that the NCEES will throw out problems here and there if there is an error in the problem (hopefully it's not one that you would've got correct.) But it doesn't matter how you result in the 56, 57, 55, or whatever that cutscore is. You can get a balance from both morning and afternoon or do really well in one and not so well in another. Or do good in both

How did you feel about the afternoon section? This is your specialty depth and is sometimes easy than the morning. As I failed the first exam, when looking at my diagnostics report I knew there areas in the morning I could improve on but my weakness was actually my depth. I made it a point to focus heavily on that and master the depth. This April, I felt great about the depth even better than the morning. I hope we all get through this together, but if things don't work out, use the diagnostics report and push yourself to learn as much you can in the areas you did weak in if it's your depth or any subjects in the morning. Good luck!

 

[RIP - VTEnviro]

opcorn:

 

[chaocl]

I took the ME- Mechanical Systems & Materials test.
The morning was pretty good, I had 3-5 that I was unsure of and 1-2 that I KNEW had errors in the problem itself. Since we can't talk about the problems I can't say which ones. I know some will be thrown out.

the afternoon session kicked my butt! I had to skip 10 problems right off the bat due to excessive length or I was unfamiliar with the topic. Once I got the others I was able to calm down and either work out the others or make educated guesses.

I think I did okay, but we'll see after the new year!

Oh, the pencils were white with green letters. We got to keep ours and were told that.

I also took the Mech Systems depth and actually felt like I did better with that than the morning session.

I am trying not to go over the test in my head because I am second guessing myself and there is no point...it's out of my control now. The good thing is I felt like 80-85% of all the problems I got an answer that matched one of the solutions. Bad part is now I wonder if I fell for some traps. This is why I try not to think about it.

I think there are at least 8 to 10 problems like this in the AM and another 5 - 7 questions in the PM. I couldn't say it out which problems will be that in here.

Always Check!(Check again save me more 7 in the AM and 8 in PM)

 

[abourne]

Maximums,

Thanks for all the great advice on this matter.

Try not to worry about if you passed or failed.
Catch the time you missed with your family, friends, hobbies, and things you enjoyed to do before studying for the exam.

I am going on a three-week vacation soon which I planned months ago.

I believe the cut score is 56/80 which is 70%.

My review teacher said the cutoff is generally a little below 70%.

Of course, the Thermo people are feeling good about this test, hence, the cutoff may be on the hight side.

How did you feel about the afternoon section?

I feel pretty good about the afternoon session, but my likely case is about 25+ out of 40, or 63% for the afternoon. Of course, this assumes 100% of my guesses are incorrect which I'll get to below.

I hope we all get through this together, but if things don't work out, use the diagnostics report and push yourself to learn as much you can in the areas you did weak in if it's your depth or any subjects in the morning. Good luck!

Yes, I do know that my strong points are fluids, thermo, and pumps.

I definitely need more attention to HVAC, Combustion, and Heat Transfer. I was week on solving the mass flow rates into a room for HVAC, some Chemistry on Combustion, etc.

Also, I really messed up on the graphics and electrical problems in the morning.

As for your 56/80 cutoff:

If I got 25 in the mornig and 25 in the afternoon, that's a total of 50, hence I only need six more.

I know for sure I got two answers wrong after discussing analyzing them afterwards, so, removing

78 - 50 = 28

28 would be the number I guessed on.

Of these 28, I need 6 / 28, or 21% of my random guesses to be correct.

If got 21% of my random guesses correct, this would put me around the 56 cutoff.

70% cutoff might be conservatively high.

25 correct in the morning and 25 correct in the afternoon might be conservatively low.

In theorey, about 25% of our guesses should be correct, but that can easily be significantly lower.

You should know, I took the PPI review course which I'm able to take again for free if I didn't pass.

The review course begins early January before we get the results, so I'm going to start again with studying and classes at that time just in case while awaiting the results.

I have a lot riding on this exam, instant promotion, increased salary potential, etc., so if necessary, I'll take this test repeatedly until I pass.

Thanks again for your feedback.

 

[snickerd3]

I know for sure I got two answers wrong after discussing analyzing them afterwards, so, removing

you really shouldn't be discussing any of the test questions, unless of course it was with your internal monologue then have at it.

 

[chaocl]

Maximums,
Thanks for all the great advice on this matter.

Try not to worry about if you passed or failed.
Catch the time you missed with your family, friends, hobbies, and things you enjoyed to do before studying for the exam.

I am going on a three-week vacation soon which I planned months ago.

I believe the cut score is 56/80 which is 70%.

My review teacher said the cutoff is generally a little below 70%.

Of course, the Thermo people are feeling good about this test, hence, the cutoff may be on the hight side.

How did you feel about the afternoon section?

I feel pretty good about the afternoon session, but my likely case is about 25+ out of 40, or 63% for the afternoon. Of course, this assumes 100% of my guesses are incorrect which I'll get to below.

I hope we all get through this together, but if things don't work out, use the diagnostics report and push yourself to learn as much you can in the areas you did weak in if it's your depth or any subjects in the morning. Good luck!

Yes, I do know that my strong points are fluids, thermo, and pumps.

I definitely need more attention to HVAC, Combustion, and Heat Transfer. I was week on solving the mass flow rates into a room for HVAC, some Chemistry on Combustion, etc.

Also, I really messed up on the graphics and electrical problems in the morning.

As for your 56/80 cutoff:

If I got 25 in the mornig and 25 in the afternoon, that's a total of 50, hence I only need six more.

I know for sure I got two answers wrong after discussing analyzing them afterwards, so, removing

78 - 50 = 28

28 would be the number I guessed on.

Of these 28, I need 6 / 28, or 21% of my random guesses to be correct.

If got 21% of my random guesses correct, this would put me around the 56 cutoff.

70% cutoff might be conservatively high.

25 correct in the morning and 25 correct in the afternoon might be conservatively low.

In theorey, about 25% of our guesses should be correct, but that can easily be significantly lower.

You should know, I took the PPI review course which I'm able to take again for free if I didn't pass.

The review course begins early January before we get the results, so I'm going to start again with studying and classes at that time just in case while awaiting the results.

I have a lot riding on this exam, instant promotion, increased salary potential, etc., so if necessary, I'll take this test repeatedly until I pass.

Thanks again for your feedback.

I got 31/40 AM and 13/40 PM (I got 100% on HVAC and Power in the morning but only 8% in power system in the afternoon) last time (ME-T&F). I had a good feeling about at most 7 to 8 questions wrong in the morningand my feeling is correct that I got 31/40 AM. The PM I feel bad and I think I could get around 15/40. And with the rest 25 with choice of (A,B,C and D) can get me 6 problems right in addition. So my total score will be 21/40...but I am wrong.

The method the NCEES using is so complicate...If you get more than 20/40 then the method of guess and adding to your total score will apply!! But if you feel only 12 to 15 right and depend every other questions with guessing that they won't add to it. They will calculate how many people doing the same question got right and avg the problem...not the score.

So I was saying that don't count any additional problems into your total feel score of right ONLY.

I failed three times and everytime I was thinking the same question that with my calculation that I sould pass the exam but how am I fail?

 

[RIP - VTEnviro]

I know for sure I got two answers wrong after discussing analyzing them afterwards, so, removing

you really shouldn't be discussing any of the test questions, unless of course it was with your internal monologue then have at it.

Where do they find them and why do they keep sending them to us... :deadhorse:

 

[thoolie]

I took the Mechanical - Thermo-Power-Fluids
Summary of my scoring estimates:

Morning

Worst case: 25 / 40 - 63%

Probable case: 27.5 / 40 - 70%

Best case: 30 / 40 - 75%

Afternoon

Worst case - 20 / 40 - 50% (I'm sure I did better than this)

Likely case - 25+ / 40 - 63%

Best case: 70-75% if I did well on guessing (20-25% of guessing correct).

----------------

I heard that the Machine Design and Thermo people are feeling good about the test. Hence, this might increase the benchmark for passing.

I'm hoping I scored above the median.

I know where my strengths are, Thermodynamics, Fluids, and Pumps. If I take it again, I'm going to need to focus more on HVAC, Heat Transfer, and Combustion.

Results won't be out until mid to late January.

For a bit of a historical analysis, California has posted all of their older exam statistics (they've included cut scores for the older ones - 10 year old tests).

http://www.pels.ca.gov/applicants/exam_statistics.shtml

If you scroll down to the results from 98 and 99, you'll find cut scores for all disciplines (you have to download the pdf). For example, in April of 1999, the cut score for the Electrical PE exam was 48 questions right out of 80 questions (60%). You'll also see that 29 of 199 people were able to get a score higher than 48 (14.6%). I'm willing to bet that this is probably in the ballpark of what should be expected of recent exams, as I think NCEES likes to try and maintain a moderate amount of similarity between exam difficulties. Now, they don't tell you if that 48 is before or after they throw out the bunk questions......

So, there is the official cut score. I hope that answers everybody's questions and helps you judge your likelihood of passing.

 

[navyasw02]

So, there is the official cut score.

You're going to get called a heretic for this.

 

[thoolie]

So, there is the official cut score.

You're going to get called a heretic for this.

Well, perhaps I should have said, "There is the official cut score from 1999 from the Electrical PE exam which had 80 questions on it" (the document has cut scores for every discipline tested that year).

Either way, that is California's official information. I'm sure one can extrapolate that cut score based upon the pass percentage to the modern cut score based upon today's pass percentage. I'm going to go out on a limb and argue that they're probably not all that far apart.

I'm just the messenger.

 

[abourne]

I read on the NCEES's web site that they don't release the cutoff score because it always changes on each exam.

While the pass rates might be similar, the cutoff certainly varies.

We may reasonably assume that 70% is likely pass, and we may also assume that the cutoff is usually a little below that.

I did hear that for ME's, the pass rate is about 55% overall (both first-time and repeat takers).

Hence, I'd like to hope I scored above the median.

 

[jandres]

I'd bet that the cut score is somewhere closer to 48 than 56. People here just want to prop themselves up and like to think that there's no way they passed with a score that low. You typically overestimate your performance on an exam like this, and it makes you feel good if you think you scored higher than you actually did. NCEES sends those confusing diagnostics with percentages so they can throw you off their scent too, otherwise they'd just flat out tell you you got 6/9 right in this portion, 2/5 in that portion and you could just add it up and get the score. The percentages make it very easy to hide the true score.

 

[benbo]

You're going to get called a heretic for this.

You're right, because it's not correct.

The test from 1998 and 1999 was a completely different test that included essay type questions. It is not in any way comparable to today's entirely multiple choice test.

Read the NCEES website if you are actually interested in facts. But you won't find a raw cut score on there because they don't give it.

All tests have their own cut score. 56/80 or a little lower is a reasonable guess, but it's still a guess. I doubt it goes as low as 48 but I have absolutely no way of knowing. I have seen people use diagnostics to estimate failing scores and most have been above 48.

 

[RIP - VTEnviro]

You either passed or you did not pass. All this pointless speculation is futile.

 

[MadDawg]

Try not to worry about if you passed or failed.

I'm starting to convince myself that I can't do anything about it now so I shouldn't worry, but it's tough because every time I see one of my coworkers he says "you get your results back yet?...it's a scantron!"

 

[navyasw02]

Try not to worry about if you passed or failed.

I'm starting to convince myself that I can't do anything about it now so I shouldn't worry, but it's tough because every time I see one of my coworkers he says "you get your results back yet?...it's a scantron!"

He must not be a PE. Either that or he's a jackass.

 

[Bean PE]

I did hear that for ME's, the pass rate is about 55% overall (both first-time and repeat takers).
Hence, I'd like to hope I scored above the median.

First timers have a high 60s% pass rate, so just hope you're not in the bottom third (of course, that really should be a goal in life).

 

[abourne]

First timers have a high 60s% pass rate, so just hope you're not in the bottom third (of course, that really should be a goal in life).

First timers and repeat takers are independant and mutually exclusive from the overall pass rate of 55%.

I should note that the pass over the past seven tests, excluding an easy exam that had a 62% pass rate on year, avaraged about 52% and ranged from 48% to 56% (a calculation I did by looking at the link provided before).

Yes, the pass rate is higher for first-timers. However, overall, if approximatley 50% pass the test, being above the median will likely result in passing, regardless of the magnitude of how many are in each category.

The overall pass rate is based on the total number of exam takers.

Afterwards, they may be categorized by first-timers or repeat takers.

The bottom 1/3 will clearly fail, as well as many others above that and below the median, first timers or not.

 

[DVINNY]

http://engineerboards.com/index.php?s=&amp...t&p=6755568

Using the above link, you can download a great spreadsheet made by an EB.com member. It's for the civil.

using such calculations, do a search for "Diagnostic" and you will find many threads like this one:

http://engineerboards.com/index.php?showto...p;hl=diagnostic

48 is not the cut score anymore.