EB Mafia

[DLD PE]

 

[JayKay PE]

So if we asked Cassandra IF they are Cassandra....then would they be able to lie and say no? Or would they have to say yes?

Cassandra must speak the truth concerning their vision. So if they are told a certain player is a townie or mafia or cop or doctor, they have to 'reveal' that information in some manner to the thread. They do not need to reveal that they are a special role or Cassandra.

 

[steel]

Cassandra must speak the truth concerning their vision. So if they are told a certain player is a townie or mafia or cop or doctor, they have to 'reveal' that information in some manner to the thread. They do not need to reveal that they are a special role or Cassandra.

Could they phrase it in such a way as to say "I think so-and-so is [alignment]" ?
This would make so much more sense to me if I was Cassandra lol

 

[JayKay PE]

Could they phrase it in such a way as to say "I think so-and-so is [alignment]" ?
This would make so much more sense to me if I was Cassandra lol

Cassandra must state it matter of factly (i.e, BLANK is mafia, or BLANK is townie, they cannot say I think), but that does not mean they cannot do a data dump or 'hide' the info in some way.

 

[steel]

So the first person to make a blatant accusation, everyone is gonna think is Cassandra and they're gonna get voted off the island right away lol

 

[beccabun PE]

So the first person to make a blatant accusation, everyone is gonna think is Cassandra and they're gonna get voted off the island right away lol

why would we vote out someone who's getting direct information from the mod?

EDIT: you mean the mafia will vote them out, gotcha

 

[steel]

why would we vote out someone who's getting direct information from the mod?

EDIT: you mean the mafia will vote them out, gotcha

Correct. I could have phrased that clearer lol. If they reveal someone to be mafia, they're getting killed by said mafia. If they reveal you or I as a townie, then we will know who Cassandra is. Cause who else would just say "so-and-so is a Townie"

Though if it's @RBHeadge PE, he posts his feelings toward who is what anyway so he'd hide it easy.

 

[Tiger15]

The townies could try to protect the Cassandra by also making Cassandra-like posts. If we all do it the mafia doesn't know who to target, but it makes it harder to figure out who is the Cassandra and who to trust.

 

[Tiger15]

Another possibility... the Cassandra

The Cassandra can be either mafia or townie alignment and once triggered, they will receive a special PM that explains their new role.

Actually this makes things even more interesting.
The Cassandra could be mafia, but would be forced to reveal factual info publicly. Therefore they are still valuable to the town.

@JayKay PE I assume the mafia can't vote to kill one of their own, even if it's the Cassandra?

 

[DLD PE]

Correct. I could have phrased that clearer lol. If they reveal someone to be mafia, they're getting killed by said mafia. If they reveal you or I as a townie, then we will know who Cassandra is. Cause who else would just say "so-and-so is a Townie"

Though if it's @RBHeadge PE, he posts his feelings toward who is what anyway so he'd hide it easy.

He would be very subtle about it. He would give a clue, but more often than not, the townies fail to pick up on it.

 

[Dothracki PE]

Random vote, with coffee this time!

@JayKay PE I vote for @squaretaper LIT AF PE, it's been a while since they were mafia anyway.

 

[beccabun PE]

Another possibility... the Cassandra

Actually this makes things even more interesting.
The Cassandra could be mafia, but would be forced to reveal factual info publicly. Therefore they are still valuable to the town.

@JayKay PE I assume the mafia can't vote to kill one of their own, even if it's the Cassandra?

Well, they could always just not reveal their information and automatically get voted out?

 

[squaretaper LIT AF PE]

Random vote, with coffee this time!

@JayKay PE I vote for @squaretaper LIT AF PE, it's been a while since they were mafia anyway.

View attachment 25160

OH COME ON!!

 

[JayKay PE]

Current vote:

x2 @DuranDuran PE (structurenoel, chebs)
x1 @squaretaper LIT AF PE (Doth)

 

[JayKay PE]

Correct. I could have phrased that clearer lol. If they reveal someone to be mafia, they're getting killed by said mafia. If they reveal you or I as a townie, then we will know who Cassandra is. Cause who else would just say "so-and-so is a Townie"

Though if it's @RBHeadge PE, he posts his feelings toward who is what anyway so he'd hide it easy.

lol, not commenting on this, because there have been blatant accusation of so-and-so being a townie/mafia in previous rounds

 

[JayKay PE]

Another possibility... the Cassandra

Actually this makes things even more interesting.
The Cassandra could be mafia, but would be forced to reveal factual info publicly. Therefore they are still valuable to the town.

@JayKay PE I assume the mafia can't vote to kill one of their own, even if it's the Cassandra?

As for previous rounds, mafia is allowed to vote for mafia members during the day lynching. Mafia members cannot vote for each other/suicide during the night kill.

 

[beccabun PE]

@JayKay PE I vote for @jean15paul_PE for now

 

[beccabun PE]

@JayKay PE I vote for @jean15paul_PE for no

Although if we don't hear from @djl PE @FlangeheadPEAZ @EyehatethePEexam PE by 7PM EST, I'm changing my vote to one of them

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Warning: Incoming long game theory discussion below.

This discussion is not comprehensive, and I am intentionally leaving out some tactics and tells that I would find useful is determining or hiding alignments.

So the first person to make a blatant accusation, everyone is gonna think is Cassandra and they're gonna get voted off the island right away lol

Not necessarily. Generally speaking it's an extra investigator for the town which is always helpful to the townies and should be kept around as long as possible. A discernable mafia determination is always helpful to the town. A discernable townie determination is useful in establishing known townie lists and elimination potential mafia. POE is a valuable tool in this game.

The negative value Cassandra actions are them stating who is the doctor and cop. The doctor would be the immediate and only nightkill target to the detriment to the town. The cop may not be an automatic immediate target if the doctor was still alive as the doctor would immediately protect the cop for the rest of the game. The mafia may choose to devote their nightkills to easier targets.

tl;dr the Cassandra is a net townie asset.

That means that they should be a high value nightkill target for the mafia. But not the highest value target. The cop and occasionally the doctor may be a higher value target. Known townies, while lower value, are still safe targets. The Cassandra risks themselves by making themselves known publicly.

Though if it's @RBHeadge PE, he posts his feelings toward who is what anyway so he'd hide it easy.

Yes, it would be completely on brand for me to do this. I'm always posting my reads everyday, starting around Day 2 or 3.

Me posting that someone is the cop or doc publicly is not on brand, and no one would be dumb enough to speculate on that in the public thread.

To be clear, I am not the Cassandra this round.

The townies could try to protect the Cassandra by also making Cassandra-like posts. If we all do it the mafia doesn't know who to target, but it makes it harder to figure out who is the Cassandra and who to trust.

Yes and no. Posting excessive noise to conceal the Cassandra may not be the smart move in the early game. A careful cop, townie, or townie coalition may be scrutinizing those posts for hints. A critical mass will develop after a few days that may present a wealth of intel for the townie coalition.
Careful members of the mafia may also look for patterns too to discern who is a known townie and try to target them under the right circumstances. But the value added for the town by scrutinizing results should have a higher WPA than the mafia scrutinizing to kill potential-known townies.

I haven't gamed it out if its worth it for the town to try to protect the Cassandra via noise. My intuition says no but I could be wrong.

Another possibility... the Cassandra

Actually this makes things even more interesting.
The Cassandra could be mafia, but would be forced to reveal factual info publicly. Therefore they are still valuable to the town.

@JayKay PE I assume the mafia can't vote to kill one of their own, even if it's the Cassandra?

exactly! On the whole, it'd be an anchor dragging the mafia.

Well, they could always just not reveal their information and automatically get voted out?

yep.



===============

He would be very subtle about it. He would give a clue, but more often than not, the townies fail to pick up on it.

ikr!

 

[Tiger15]

Warning: Incoming long game theory discussion below.

This discussion is not comprehensive, and I am intentionally leaving out some tactics and tells that I would find useful is determining or hiding alignments.


Not necessarily. Generally speaking it's an extra investigator for the town which is always helpful to the townies and should be kept around as long as possible. A discernable mafia determination is always helpful to the town. A discernable townie determination is useful in establishing known townie lists and elimination potential mafia. POE is a valuable tool in this game.

The negative value Cassandra actions are them stating who is the doctor and cop. The doctor would be the immediate and only nightkill target to the detriment to the town. The cop may not be an automatic immediate target if the doctor was still alive as the doctor would immediately protect the cop for the rest of the game. The mafia may choose to devote their nightkills to easier targets.

tl;dr the Cassandra is a net townie asset.

That means that they should be a high value nightkill target for the mafia. But not the highest value target. The cop and occasionally the doctor may be a higher value target. Known townies, while lower value, are still safe targets. The Cassandra risks themselves by making themselves known publicly.


Yes, it would be completely on brand for me to do this. I'm always posting my reads everyday, starting around Day 2 or 3.

Me posting that someone is the cop or doc publicly is not on brand, and no one would be dumb enough to speculate on that in the public thread.

To be clear, I am not the Cassandra this round.


Yes and no. Posting excessive noise to conceal the Cassandra may not be the smart move in the early game. A careful cop, townie, or townie coalition may be scrutinizing those posts for hints. A critical mass will develop after a few days that may present a wealth of intel for the townie coalition.
Careful members of the mafia may also look for patterns too to discern who is a known townie and try to target them under the right circumstances. But the value added for the town by scrutinizing results should have a higher WPA than the mafia scrutinizing to kill potential-known townies.

I haven't gamed it out if its worth it for the town to try to protect the Cassandra via noise. My intuition says no but I could be wrong.



exactly! On the whole, it'd be an anchor dragging the mafia.


yep.



===============

ikr!

I didn't think about it until reading your post, but the most valuable strategy for the town might be for the doctor to continuously protect the public Cassandra instead of trying to protect the hidden cop.

Also cops usually get a limited number of investigations. It sounds like the Cassandra will have a vision every night, making them potentially more valuable than the cop. ... But they can't strategically choose their target, so maybe they are less valuable.