April 2019 Post Exam Wait Period - Welcome to the Suck

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EyehatethePEexam said:
Construction 53, everything else 56.

Self graded myself at a 59-60 this time, past attempts self grading proved to be 5-8% optimistic...53 gives me enough cushion. God forbid I have to take it again I'll adjust my formula to the 10% on guesses- I'd been using 25% and the generic answer B has been letting me down. I refused to use C as my default guess because Joey Lawrence said it was right and I refuse to live in a world where Joey Lawrence is a wise man.
Click to expand...
Glad to see I wasn’t the only one who went with the default answer of B when guessing 😀😀! 

 
I think the real question is:

How reliable is the extrapolation from the Texas scores? 

Isnt this where we get the cut scores from anyway? 

State your reasoning behind why we can or can't rely on the extrapolation from the Texas scores.

 
Tres Amigos said:
How reliable is the extrapolation from the Texas scores? 
Click to expand...
None of the vets trust the extrapolation. Full stop. The extrapolations tend to run low, lower than historic trends. The low extrapolated cut scores only match the observationally derived cut score when the number of high 'failed' data points=1.

We don't know how Texas determines the cut score. What's the equation? Is there an equation? When you think about it, it can't be fully linear. Any assumptions about the equation could easily be off by a few problems in either directions.

Reminder: each exam has a different cut score. It will vary by discipline, session, and afternoon session.

Tres Amigos said:
Isnt this where we get the cut scores from anyway? 
Click to expand...
No. After the test, many brave souls who failed will list their failing score and the exam they took. Often there are enough reported scores in the same exam that we can observe a threshold score for a few exams. It's usually around 53-55. But we've seen 52, 56, 57.

The response rate hasn't been good the last few sessions. So people fill in the blanks with the n=1 sample size and use a best fit curve with Texas passing scores to arrive at cut scores like 45-51. With enough rum, I might be willing to believe 50 or 51. However my liver would disintegrate before I'd believe a cut score in the 40s.

Tres Amigos said:
State your reasoning behind why we can or can't rely on the extrapolation from the Texas scores.
Click to expand...


The essay below is using a generalized "you" and not directed at any one person. And I'm not interested in debating semantics, or philosophy of professionalism, or engineering ethics, or 'special circumstances' in this high level essay.

The simple fact of the matter is that the cut score doesn't really matter. When I was in your position, the vets would tell us that same thing. But we didn't believe it, we were too emotional, and lacked the right perspective and experience to understand. It would take a couple years before I truly understood why the cut score doesn't matter.

The cut score is what it is. You've either demonstrated the minimum competency for license or you haven't. You are taking this test to be a professional,. People's lives may very well depend on how well you, your team, and your charges do your jobs. As a matter of public trust, people expect you to be a professional when you stamp your work. The bridge stays up, or it collapses.

Ideally, you should have walked of out the exam room highly confident that you got at least 85%. The bridge stays up.

But hey, I've been there too, twice. It's an evil f$%^ing test. Most people walk out feeling like they're in the ballpark of 65%-75%. And this is where the cut score and uncertainty starts to feel like it matters. The anxiety really builds up. This thread is titled "Welcome to the Suck" for a reason. However there's nothing you can do about it now. If you pass, great! The bridge stays up. if you fail, the bridge collapses. Resolve to do better, improve your study habits, and definitively kicks its ass in 6-12 months.

However, if you are hanging your hat on the cut score being in the 40's or lower: sorry, but you don't deserve to be licensed at this time. The bridge collapses. The public needs to trust the profession; their lives depend on it.    Like I wrote above, assess your strengths and weakness, improve your study habits, get more professional experience, and hit the books. Resolve to kick its ass in 6-12 months. If the state board approved you to take the test, then you have the ability to pass!

 
RBHeadge PE said:
None of the vets trust the extrapolation. Full stop. The extrapolations tend to run low, lower than historic trends. The low extrapolated cut scores only match the observationally derived cut score when the number of high 'failed' data points=1.

We don't know how Texas determines the cut score. What's the equation? Is there an equation? When you think about it, it can't be fully linear. Any assumptions about the equation could easily be off by a few problems in either directions.

Reminder: each exam has a different cut score. It will vary by discipline, session, and afternoon session.

No. After the test, many brave souls who failed will list their failing score and the exam they took. Often there are enough reported scores in the same exam that we can observe a threshold score for a few exams. It's usually around 53-55. But we've seen 52, 56, 57.

The response rate hasn't been good the last few sessions. So people fill in the blanks with the n=1 sample size and use a best fit curve with Texas passing scores to arrive at cut scores like 45-51. With enough rum, I might be willing to believe 50 or 51. However my liver would disintegrate before I'd believe a cut score in the 40s.

The essay below is using a generalized "you" and not directed at any one person. And I'm not interested in debating semantics, or philosophy of professionalism, or engineering ethics, or 'special circumstances' in this high level essay.

The simple fact of the matter is that the cut score doesn't really matter. When I was in your position, the vets would tell us that same thing. But we didn't believe it, we were too emotional, and lacked the right perspective and experience to understand. It would take a couple years before I truly understood why the cut score doesn't matter.

The cut score is what it is. You've either demonstrated the minimum competency for license or you haven't. You are taking this test to be a professional,. People's lives may very well depend on how well you, your team, and your charges do your jobs. As a matter of public trust, people expect you to be a professional when you stamp your work. The bridge stays up, or it collapses.

Ideally, you should have walked of out the exam room highly confident that you got at least 85%. The bridge stays up.

But hey, I've been there too, twice. It's an evil f$%^ing test. Most people walk out feeling like they're in the ballpark of 65%-75%. And this is where the cut score and uncertainty starts to feel like it matters. The anxiety really builds up. This thread is titled "Welcome to the Suck" for a reason. However there's nothing you can do about it now. If you pass, great! The bridge stays up. if you fail, the bridge collapses. Resolve to do better, improve your study habits, and definitively kicks its ass in 6-12 months.

However, if you are hanging your hat on the cut score being in the 40's or lower: sorry, but you don't deserve to be licensed at this time. The bridge collapses. The public needs to trust the profession; their lives depend on it.    Like I wrote above, assess your strengths and weakness, improve your study habits, get more professional experience, and hit the books. Resolve to kick its ass in 6-12 months. If the state board approved you to take the test, then you have the ability to pass!
Click to expand...
https://giphy.com/gifs/fnuSiwXMTV3zmYDf6k

 
RBHeadge PE said:
None of the vets trust the extrapolation. Full stop. The extrapolations tend to run low, lower than historic trends. The low extrapolated cut scores only match the observationally derived cut score when the number of high 'failed' data points=1.

We don't know how Texas determines the cut score. What's the equation? Is there an equation? When you think about it, it can't be fully linear. Any assumptions about the equation could easily be off by a few problems in either directions.

Reminder: each exam has a different cut score. It will vary by discipline, session, and afternoon session.

No. After the test, many brave souls who failed will list their failing score and the exam they took. Often there are enough reported scores in the same exam that we can observe a threshold score for a few exams. It's usually around 53-55. But we've seen 52, 56, 57.

The response rate hasn't been good the last few sessions. So people fill in the blanks with the n=1 sample size and use a best fit curve with Texas passing scores to arrive at cut scores like 45-51. With enough rum, I might be willing to believe 50 or 51. However my liver would disintegrate before I'd believe a cut score in the 40s.

The essay below is using a generalized "you" and not directed at any one person. And I'm not interested in debating semantics, or philosophy of professionalism, or engineering ethics, or 'special circumstances' in this high level essay.

The simple fact of the matter is that the cut score doesn't really matter. When I was in your position, the vets would tell us that same thing. But we didn't believe it, we were too emotional, and lacked the right perspective and experience to understand. It would take a couple years before I truly understood why the cut score doesn't matter.

The cut score is what it is. You've either demonstrated the minimum competency for license or you haven't. You are taking this test to be a professional,. People's lives may very well depend on how well you, your team, and your charges do your jobs. As a matter of public trust, people expect you to be a professional when you stamp your work. The bridge stays up, or it collapses.

Ideally, you should have walked of out the exam room highly confident that you got at least 85%. The bridge stays up.

But hey, I've been there too, twice. It's an evil f$%^ing test. Most people walk out feeling like they're in the ballpark of 65%-75%. And this is where the cut score and uncertainty starts to feel like it matters. The anxiety really builds up. This thread is titled "Welcome to the Suck" for a reason. However there's nothing you can do about it now. If you pass, great! The bridge stays up. if you fail, the bridge collapses. Resolve to do better, improve your study habits, and definitively kicks its ass in 6-12 months.

However, if you are hanging your hat on the cut score being in the 40's or lower: sorry, but you don't deserve to be licensed at this time. The bridge collapses. The public needs to trust the profession; their lives depend on it.    Like I wrote above, assess your strengths and weakness, improve your study habits, get more professional experience, and hit the books. Resolve to kick its ass in 6-12 months. If the state board approved you to take the test, then you have the ability to pass!
Click to expand...
Very nicely put! Thanks for shining more light on this, my case rests on @RBHeadge PE's response. 

I feel like I am now ready to accept my fate :)

 
The only thing that makes waiting worse...having co workers ask daily if you have gotten results yet. At least I have company in this misery (5 other people in my office building took the test as well 2 of them being close co workers).

Maybe I will wake to an email from NCEES...one can dream.

 
RBHeadge PE said:
None of the vets trust the extrapolation. Full stop. The extrapolations tend to run low, lower than historic trends. The low extrapolated cut scores only match the observationally derived cut score when the number of high 'failed' data points=1.

We don't know how Texas determines the cut score. What's the equation? Is there an equation? When you think about it, it can't be fully linear. Any assumptions about the equation could easily be off by a few problems in either directions.

Reminder: each exam has a different cut score. It will vary by discipline, session, and afternoon session.

No. After the test, many brave souls who failed will list their failing score and the exam they took. Often there are enough reported scores in the same exam that we can observe a threshold score for a few exams. It's usually around 53-55. But we've seen 52, 56, 57.

The response rate hasn't been good the last few sessions. So people fill in the blanks with the n=1 sample size and use a best fit curve with Texas passing scores to arrive at cut scores like 45-51. With enough rum, I might be willing to believe 50 or 51. However my liver would disintegrate before I'd believe a cut score in the 40s.

The essay below is using a generalized "you" and not directed at any one person. And I'm not interested in debating semantics, or philosophy of professionalism, or engineering ethics, or 'special circumstances' in this high level essay.

The simple fact of the matter is that the cut score doesn't really matter. When I was in your position, the vets would tell us that same thing. But we didn't believe it, we were too emotional, and lacked the right perspective and experience to understand. It would take a couple years before I truly understood why the cut score doesn't matter.

The cut score is what it is. You've either demonstrated the minimum competency for license or you haven't. You are taking this test to be a professional,. People's lives may very well depend on how well you, your team, and your charges do your jobs. As a matter of public trust, people expect you to be a professional when you stamp your work. The bridge stays up, or it collapses.

Ideally, you should have walked of out the exam room highly confident that you got at least 85%. The bridge stays up.

But hey, I've been there too, twice. It's an evil f$%^ing test. Most people walk out feeling like they're in the ballpark of 65%-75%. And this is where the cut score and uncertainty starts to feel like it matters. The anxiety really builds up. This thread is titled "Welcome to the Suck" for a reason. However there's nothing you can do about it now. If you pass, great! The bridge stays up. if you fail, the bridge collapses. Resolve to do better, improve your study habits, and definitively kicks its ass in 6-12 months.

However, if you are hanging your hat on the cut score being in the 40's or lower: sorry, but you don't deserve to be licensed at this time. The bridge collapses. The public needs to trust the profession; their lives depend on it.    Like I wrote above, assess your strengths and weakness, improve your study habits, get more professional experience, and hit the books. Resolve to kick its ass in 6-12 months. If the state board approved you to take the test, then you have the ability to pass!
Click to expand...
Best thread I have read to date... I am waiting to hear if I passed or not, but indeed, this post is true on so many levels to the point where now, if I hear of others trying to find ways to supersede, bypass or "crack the code", crossing fingers on a low score of 39 or below being acceptable, it disgust me because I studied well over 300 hours to take this exam yet again and come to the realization that the best way to tackle this is to know your shit🤷🏽‍♀️... jmo. Good luck everyone. 

 
Lizmutt said:
The only thing that makes waiting worse...having co workers ask daily if you have gotten results yet. At least I have company in this misery (5 other people in my office building took the test as well 2 of them being close co workers).

Maybe I will wake to an email from NCEES...one can dream.
Click to expand...
And that is why I told very few people I was taking it. I told my gramma, who I talked to weekly, 2 days before I took the test. She now asks me if I know every time we talk. 

Unless my direct supervisor told him, , I'm fairly certain the guy who has to approve my expense report if I pass doesn't even know. 

 
People on the morning train keep asking if I have results yet. Nope....and my anxiety wishes it is sooner rather than later.

 
ashmur90 said:
People on the morning train keep asking if I have results yet. Nope....and my anxiety wishes it is sooner rather than later.
Click to expand...
Is Texas historically released early in the day?  I expect that I will my my results sooner than most on this board as AL, I was told, is quite early.

 

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