# Guessing



## wvgirl14

Okay, so I have had this debate and want to see what people's take on it. Let's say you have one minute remaining and 20 questions left. Is it better to choose one answer and go with it say C or should one randomly pick? Or should say you had fluids and electrical should you choose one answer and run with it for fluids and another for electrical or the same for both or random for both. Or if it comes to this are you just totally screwed?

This is based on not having time to read the problem and eliminate answers or make a educated guess, you only would have time to bubble in a answer for the remaining 20 problems.

I said straight answer for one section and straight answer for the other, but one guy said random, just want to see what everyone else thinks.


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## Supe

Statistically, it makes no difference.


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## Exception Collection

wvgirl14 said:


> Okay, so I have had this debate and want to see what people's take on it. Let's say you have one minute remaining and 20 questions left. Is it better to choose one answer and go with it say C or should one randomly pick? Or should say you had fluids and electrical should you choose one answer and run with it for fluids and another for electrical or the same for both or random for both. Or if it comes to this are you just totally screwed?
> This is based on not having time to read the problem and eliminate answers or make a educated guess, you only would have time to bubble in a answer for the remaining 20 problems.
> 
> I said straight answer for one section and straight answer for the other, but one guy said random, just want to see what everyone else thinks.



As I recall, the correct answers are supposed to be distributed randomly. If you are going to "guess", rolling a D4, doing steps or other patterns (A - B - C - D - D - C - B - A - A etc..) or straight down doesn't matter.

Though I have two observations. First: Don't do raw guesses. Before I start writing anything for the harder questions, I look over every question. then I go back to the beginning and answer the easier questions while thinking about the harder ones.

Second, that despite random assignments, patterns do happen. I noticed for my FE that a large proportion of answers appeared to follow a pattern; I chalked it up to the idea that within a truly random selection patterns will inevitably occur.


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## Soil_EngineerVA

i've always heard that you should pick a letter and stick with it. so if you have a string of 10 circuits questions, you should go with B (if that is the letter you are going with) and go with that straight down. this will at least guarantee that you get those questions right that are that answer. i know statistically it doesn't matter, but if you just randomly guess, you have a better chance of getting zero right, at least that's what i think.


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## Peele1

Supe said:


> Statistically, it makes no difference.






Soil_EngineerVA said:


> i've always heard that you should pick a letter and stick with it. so if you have a string of 10 circuits questions, you should go with B (if that is the letter you are going with) and go with that straight down. this will at least guarantee that you get those questions right that are that answer. i know statistically it doesn't matter, but if you just randomly guess, you have a better chance of getting zero right, at least that's what i think.



Assuming answers are random, and dispersed... If you guess randomly from A-D, then you have a chance of a 0% up to 100%. If you do B for them all, then you will most likely get about 25% right. If you take the test enough times and guess A-D on them all, then eventually you should pass (based on Douglass Adams' monkeys on a typewriter theory). If you always guess B on all answers, you will fail every time.

Therefore, I go with randomizing answers.


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## wvgirl14

Well my theory is you only are guessing on 20 (2 sections) of the test therefore choosing say B for one section and C for the other section you most likely would pick up a few points rather than guessing and being all over the place assuming you have no time to read them or make a educate guess. I know ideally you should read through everything and at least have an attempt at a educated guess but sometimes that doesn't happen. I don't necessarily think you are screwed since there is two halves to the FE, it just isn't the best situation to be in. I know it doesn't matter statically, we were just debating the best way to guess should this situation occur.


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## IlPadrino

Before guessing, you should try to remove some answers.


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## wvgirl14

IlPadrino said:


> Before guessing, you should try to remove some answers.


Oh I agree but we were debating assuming you have only time to guess not eliminate answers or read the problem.


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## pmn825

I guessed at random sometimes and for some did one choice. Of course there is a chance that I got them all right or all wrong. We will see in June. Most likley though guessing does not pay off. One of my Prof does mutliple choice tests and on big pointers as we call them there are only 3 choices. Most of the time all the answers are pretty close, so at times its hard to eliminate a choice. However the FE has answer choices that can be eliminated by "inspection".


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## Vinsanity

wvgirl,

based on my FE experience, at 25% probability of getting it right. I believe it is logical to choose values in between highest to lowest number that was always been my approach, for 20 items in 5mins, I dont think you can read all and answer them logically, so good luck. I hope you can pass.


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## chaocl

I heard my coworker failed last time (Oct, 2010) FE exam that random guess might not help you to pass this time. The NCEES want to see you score "*every topics*" above the avg. So if you don't know how to answer some of the questions on the exam that you better skip them and go to next question. There will be some easy questions in each topics but if you guess the last 20 questions that you might miss some of the easy questions...


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## wvgirl14

You maybe right if one would guess you just maybe totally screwed. I don't know. We were debating the best way to guess if you had no time. I don't really see how you can be expected to score above average in every topic. A mechanical person may not necessarily know a thing about statics. Granted there maybe a few easy questions but not enough to be above average. One of the guys who took this time around and he is a civil still in school said he had to guess on the electrical morning and he did get a chance to work them. Thanks Vinsanity, I do hope to pass it sometime.


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## wvgirl14

wvgirl14 said:


> You maybe right if one would guess you just maybe totally screwed. I don't know. We were debating the best way to guess if you had no time. I don't really see how you can be expected to score above average in every topic. A mechanical person may not necessarily know a thing about statics. Granted there maybe a few easy questions but not enough to be above average. One of the guys who took this time around and he is a civil still in school said he had to guess on the electrical morning and he did get a chance to work them. Thanks Vinsanity, I do hope to pass it sometime.


Per NCEES scoring:



"Your exam results are determined by the number of items you answered correctly for the exam in its entirety. There are no minimum requirements for particular sections or topics within an exam. You are not penalized for incorrect answers." So it is what you get right in entirety not topic.


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## chaocl

If there is less time remaining in the exam. I will see the total sure answers for my guessing...

There are 120 question in the morning. If I answer 100 questions from question 1 ~ question 120. The unanswer 20 question will between questions.

Such as....1 (A) 2 (_) 3 (B ) 4 (D)....I will guess my question 2 for C...but if in the 100 questions that the total answer for (A) - 20, (B ) - 15, (C ) - 35, (D) - 30. that I might guess the answer will be B.


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## wilheldp_PE

chaocl said:


> If there is less time remaining in the exam. I will see the total sure answers for my guessing...
> There are 120 question in the morning. If I answer 100 questions from question 1 ~ question 120. The unanswer 20 question will between questions.
> 
> Such as....1 (A) 2 (_) 3 (B ) 4 (D)....I will guess my question 2 for C...but if in the 100 questions that the total answer for (A) - 20, (B ) - 15, (C ) - 35, (D) - 30. that I might guess the answer will be B.


If you don't have time to read the answers to make an educated guess, you certainly don't have time to do a statistical analysis of your scantron to see which answer is the best to guess.


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## adamgram

My advice would be to BRING A WATCH and avoid getting in the situation. My test center did NOT have a clock visible from my seat, so I definitely wish I had a watch with me. When you get to the point where you know you will run out of time figure out how much time you need to make a half-educated guess about the problems at least. If you have time to do that, my guess strategy wasn't "A,B,C, or D" it was more along the lines of "there is 1 negative answer and 3 positive answers, I'll guess the positive answer that is in the middle". You can probably rule out at least 1 of the answers on a good number of questions, then your chances jump from 1:4 to 1:3


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## STEEL MAN

adamgram said:


> My advice would be to BRING A WATCH and avoid getting in the situation. My test center did NOT have a clock visible from my seat, so I definitely wish I had a watch with me. When you get to the point where you know you will run out of time figure out how much time you need to make a half-educated guess about the problems at least. If you have time to do that, my guess strategy wasn't "A,B,C, or D" it was more along the lines of "there is 1 negative answer and 3 positive answers, I'll guess the positive answer that is in the middle". You can probably rule out at least 1 of the answers on a good number of questions, then your chances jump from 1:4 to 1:3



you have a good advice but some FE examinees found it hard to finish, for each item they must finish it in a maximum of two minutes. Logical guessing is pointed out here, my suggestion is pick an answer in between max and minimum values.

good luck


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## Klox23

One of my eng. professors, who also teaches a course in statistics, suggested we pick one letter and stick to it. That way we'll get about 25% of them correct. wvgirl14, the way you suggested should work too. Btw, I'm guessing you re-took the FE this April? good luck with that!

I remember we both had taken the FE a few times and were really close to passing. Hope this is your time!! :thumbs:


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## wvgirl14

Klox23 said:


> One of my eng. professors, who also teaches a course in statistics, suggested we pick one letter and stick to it. That way we'll get about 25% of them correct. wvgirl14, the way you suggested should work too. Btw, I'm guessing you re-took the FE this April? good luck with that!
> I remember we both had taken the FE a few times and were really close to passing. Hope this is your time!! :thumbs:


Thanks Klox23. I hope and pray so too. Not real confident this time, I know of a few stupid mistakes, a little more rattled this time around, but if I don't pass I will dust myself off and try again! I feel better about the afternoon. Glad you passed yours!


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## STEEL MAN

wvgirl14 said:


> Klox23 said:
> 
> 
> 
> One of my eng. professors, who also teaches a course in statistics, suggested we pick one letter and stick to it. That way we'll get about 25% of them correct. wvgirl14, the way you suggested should work too. Btw, I'm guessing you re-took the FE this April? good luck with that!
> I remember we both had taken the FE a few times and were really close to passing. Hope this is your time!! :thumbs:
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks Klox23. I hope and pray so too. Not real confident this time, I know of a few stupid mistakes, a little more rattled this time around, but if I don't pass I will dust myself off and try again! I feel better about the afternoon. Glad you passed yours!
Click to expand...


Wvgirl,

Hows your FE REsult?


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## wvgirl14

Haven't received them yet. I took in VA and they utilize PCS (engineering exam service) and from what I understand it takes awhile. I honestly don't feel real hopefully, but its okay I will try again if I can if I don't get it this time.



STEEL MAN said:


> wvgirl14 said:
> 
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> Klox23 said:
> 
> 
> 
> One of my eng. professors, who also teaches a course in statistics, suggested we pick one letter and stick to it. That way we'll get about 25% of them correct. wvgirl14, the way you suggested should work too. Btw, I'm guessing you re-took the FE this April? good luck with that!
> I remember we both had taken the FE a few times and were really close to passing. Hope this is your time!! :thumbs:
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks Klox23. I hope and pray so too. Not real confident this time, I know of a few stupid mistakes, a little more rattled this time around, but if I don't pass I will dust myself off and try again! I feel better about the afternoon. Glad you passed yours!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Wvgirl,
> 
> Hows your FE REsult?
Click to expand...


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## STEEL MAN

wvgirl14 said:


> Haven't received them yet. I took in VA and they utilize PCS (engineering exam service) and from what I understand it takes awhile. I honestly don't feel real hopefully, but its okay I will try again if I can if I don't get it this time.
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> STEEL MAN said:
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> wvgirl14 said:
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> Klox23 said:
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> 
> 
> One of my eng. professors, who also teaches a course in statistics, suggested we pick one letter and stick to it. That way we'll get about 25% of them correct. wvgirl14, the way you suggested should work too. Btw, I'm guessing you re-took the FE this April? good luck with that!
> I remember we both had taken the FE a few times and were really close to passing. Hope this is your time!! :thumbs:
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks Klox23. I hope and pray so too. Not real confident this time, I know of a few stupid mistakes, a little more rattled this time around, but if I don't pass I will dust myself off and try again! I feel better about the afternoon. Glad you passed yours!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> wvgirl,
> 
> good luck and I wish you success on your FE.
> 
> Wvgirl,
> 
> Hows your FE REsult?
> 
> Click to expand...
Click to expand...


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## wvgirl14

Thanks, I'll let you know how it turned out.



STEEL MAN said:


> wvgirl14 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Haven't received them yet. I took in VA and they utilize PCS (engineering exam service) and from what I understand it takes awhile. I honestly don't feel real hopefully, but its okay I will try again if I can if I don't get it this time.
> 
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> STEEL MAN said:
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> wvgirl14 said:
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> Klox23 said:
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> 
> 
> One of my eng. professors, who also teaches a course in statistics, suggested we pick one letter and stick to it. That way we'll get about 25% of them correct. wvgirl14, the way you suggested should work too. Btw, I'm guessing you re-took the FE this April? good luck with that!
> I remember we both had taken the FE a few times and were really close to passing. Hope this is your time!! :thumbs:
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks Klox23. I hope and pray so too. Not real confident this time, I know of a few stupid mistakes, a little more rattled this time around, but if I don't pass I will dust myself off and try again! I feel better about the afternoon. Glad you passed yours!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> wvgirl,
> 
> good luck and I wish you success on your FE.
> 
> Wvgirl,
> 
> Hows your FE REsult?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> Click to expand...
Click to expand...


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## EE_Mike

wvgirl14 said:


> Per NCEES scoring:
> 
> "Your exam results are determined by the number of items you answered correctly for the exam in its entirety. There are no minimum requirements for particular sections or topics within an exam. You are not penalized for incorrect answers." So it is what you get right in entirety not topic.


I never know whether to write my message above or below a quote...

There is an extremely important message here that the NCEES is trying to tell everyone. Guessing is better than leaving an answer blank. This is not the legacy SAT where it was better to leave an answer blank because of their scoring system. You are not penalized for a wrong answer and leaving a question blank is a wrong answer 100% of the time.

The debate about whether you want a 25% statistical chance of getting an answer right or a varying (0 - 100%) statistical chance of getting an answer right is like gambling. Are you going to walk away with a guaranteed $25 dollars or would you rather take a chance to possibly win more? How lucky do you feel?

Personally, just for appearances, I would rather someone see my Scantron filled with random letters than the last block of bubbles all being the same. Maybe it is an ego thing.


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