# Tunisia, Egypt...what's next?



## Capt Worley PE (Jan 31, 2011)

Popular wisdom says Yemen is getting ready to go, and Jordan already has started. Could this reach Iran and Saudi Arabia?


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## Master slacker (Jan 31, 2011)

I foresee Israel getting into a *fierce* squabble within 10 years.


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## FLBuff PE (Jan 31, 2011)

Capt Worley PE said:


> Popular wisdom says Yemen is getting ready to go, and Jordan already has started. Could this reach Iran and Saudi Arabia?






Master slacker said:


> I foresee Israel getting into a *fierce* squabble within 10 years.


That area could get VERY scary VERY fast. Do you guys see a ramped up exit strategy from Afganistan and Iraq due to the current climate there? :blowup:


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## FusionWhite (Jan 31, 2011)

Considering the Iranian uprise last year failed I doubt we would see something like whats happening in Egypt happen again in Iran. Saudi Arabia I think is a long shot too. I doubt the US would allow too much turmoil to take place in Saudi Arabia. Unfortunately I think massive revolution in Jordan would be bad. Its a relatively moderate and stable country and I think any revolution would push them toward the jihadist movements in the Middle East. Yemen, although a terrorist haven, has a government which has been willing to fight al-queda there. In fact the US has conducted several strikes with drones against targets there. A new government may not be so willing to take on terrorists on its own soil.

I doubt most of these protests will ultimately bring about any real change. Mubarak may even manage to hang onto power in Egypt.


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## benbo (Jan 31, 2011)

Detroit? Las Vegas? Florida?


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## Capt Worley PE (Jan 31, 2011)

FusionWhite said:


> Saudi Arabia I think is a long shot too. I doubt the US would allow too much turmoil to take place in Saudi Arabia.


I hope you are correct, because if it disrupts Saudi oil production, the world will be hurtin', and real fast.


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## benbo (Jan 31, 2011)

Let's hope these people are smart enough to realize that letting the Muslim Brotherhood run their country would be just as bad as Mubarek. This doesn't appear to be a religious or cultural revolt to me. These people - Tunisia, Egypt, are ticked off because they're so poor and their rulers are so rich - this has been a long time coming in many of these places. About the stupidest thing they could do would be to destroy the chance of making money off of their natural resources.

I think all of this is fallout from the Global economic crisis which causes festering problems to come to a head everywhere- whether it's Egpyt, Greece, or anywhere else.


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## Master slacker (Jan 31, 2011)

Capt Worley PE said:


> I hope you are correct, because if it disrupts Saudi oil production, the world will be hurtin', and real fast.


Especially since our oil plate is COMPLETELY full on our dining room table and our hands are tied behind our back.


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## Capt Worley PE (Jan 31, 2011)

Master slacker said:


> Capt Worley PE said:
> 
> 
> > I hope you are correct, because if it disrupts Saudi oil production, the world will be hurtin', and real fast.
> ...


Yeah, the chickens may be coming home to roost on all the politicans who opposed offshore drilling.


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## Master slacker (Jan 31, 2011)




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## wilheldp_PE (Jan 31, 2011)

FLBuff PE said:


> That area could get VERY scary VERY fast. Do you guys see a ramped up exit strategy from Afganistan and Iraq due to the current climate there? :blowup:


Quite the opposite. I think that if tensions continue to rise in the area before we pull out, the exit strategy will be extended indefinitely. Whether the US gvmt admits it or not, we have a huge dog in that fight. Israel is a close ally and a huge target of every Muslim organization in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are close allies, and have a huge stake in our oil-based energy future. Whether or not we _should_ be involved over there has very little to do with it...we _will_ be involved in some manner.


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## Master slacker (Jan 31, 2011)

If we "release the hounds" by telling Israel to go for it, the surrounding countries will be in pain.


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## Capt Worley PE (Feb 2, 2011)

Apparently, along with the threat of the Suez Canal being closed, there are two pretty important oil pipelines to the Med that may be affected by this.


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## FusionWhite (Feb 2, 2011)

Well looks like things are getting ugly in Egypt. Pro- and anti- goverment groups are starting to go at it. The military at this point has said they are staying out of it which is a good thing.

I wonder where the pro-Mubarak forces have been for the past week while all the protests have been going on? Strange that they just showed up today and now the fighting has began.


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## Dleg (Feb 2, 2011)

I don't know about the military staying out of it - the live feed a few hours ago showed quite a bit of shooting. DOn't know if it was just shooting in the air, or at people.


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## Capt Worley PE (Feb 3, 2011)

I think I heard there's five tanks in the square right now, and there was automatic weapon fire, so who knows...


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## wilheldp_PE (Feb 3, 2011)

I heard that the military was firing warning shots just to keep everybody somewhat in check (which obviously wasn't working). They were probably just firing warning shots to keep everybody fighting each other instead of focusing their attack on the military.

I think that Mubarak may have told some of the military to change into civilian clothes and start attacking the protesters. The foreign media has been reporting that on Day 3 of the protest, there was suddenly a counter-protest from pro-Mubarak forces. The pro-Mubarak people were attacking the foreign press, which could either indicate that Mubarak sent them or that the foreign press just wants to fight back against them with half-truths.


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## Capt Worley PE (Feb 3, 2011)

I wonder how common English speakers are over there. A lot of the protestors seemed to have a better command of the language than some folks around my neck of the woods do.


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## wilheldp_PE (Feb 3, 2011)

Capt Worley PE said:


> I wonder how common English speakers are over there. A lot of the protestors seemed to have a better command of the language than some folks around my neck of the woods do.


I would guess that stems from the fact that one of Egypt's main industries is tourism. There are probably a lot of multi-lingual people in Cairo and Giza.


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## Capt Worley PE (Feb 3, 2011)

Makes sense.


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## Dleg (Feb 3, 2011)

I heard this morning (on Fox News - grain of salt required) that the government was calling its employees and offering to pay them to go out on the streets to help beat on the "traitors", and that if they didn't, they simply would not get paid ... at all. They talked so some guy who had received one of those calls, and supposedly his answer was "I'm hungry, but I'm not selling my soul!"


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## Capt Worley PE (Feb 16, 2011)

Bahrain, Yemen, Libya Face Protests as Region's Unrest Spreads

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-16/b...the-unrest.html


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## Kephart P.E. (Feb 18, 2011)

I look at this as a scary thing for US interests, but also these governments deserve it, as you reap what you sow.

These leaders allowed extremist groups to spew Islamic hate at the West and US in particular because is defected that potential anger away from themselves. ie "Don't mind the new Rolls I just bought my teenage son, look at the US people, they are your true enemy."

Finally the right combination of food shortages and unemployment tipped people over the edge, many people removed the blinders and saw that while the US may still be the devil, the ones running your country are no better and have more influence on your life.

Hopefully the nut-jobs don't seize too much power and some the moderates can obtain enough leverage to rule their countries a bit more fairly.


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## FusionWhite (Feb 18, 2011)

^^^ Actually the problem is just the opposite in a lot of countries. In Egypt in particular Mubarak was a huge ally of the US and he and his country received billions a year in economic and military aid from the US. The fact that the protesters in Egypt werent pissed at the US is a bit of a miracle as far as Im concerned. We kept Mubarak fat and happy and in power for a long time and yet I rarely heard much said about the US by the protesters.


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## Capt Worley PE (Feb 18, 2011)

^^And that makes me wonder if we're going to cut foriegn aid to Egypt. Personally, I think we should have long ago. I think pretty much all foriegn aid oughta go away.


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## CbusPaul (Feb 18, 2011)

If we give these countries that don't like us more money, maybe they will like us more. And sadly that's the thinking of the current administration.


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## FusionWhite (Feb 18, 2011)

^^^ HAHAAHAHA, are you serious??? This administration? Giving...money...so people like us?

Countries have been giving money (economic, military aid etc) to other countries since WAY before the US was even ever founded. The current system of "aid" that we see in the world today is still a hold over of the Cold War when the US vs Russia was fought not just with bullets but with money.

We gave country X money to not be communists, Russia gave rebel faction Y to spread Marxist rhetoric. We bought friends, so did the Russians. Egypt was originally a benefactor of Russian generosity as a check against Israel in the 40'-early 70's. After the Egyptian "victory" in the Yom Kippur War (seriously they consider it a victory) and the assassination of Sadat; Mubarak switched sides and withdrew from the Soviet sphere of influence and moved over the good-guys side. We started pouring tons of money and weapons into Egypt (notice the M-1 tanks the military has parked out on the street, they are license built in Egypt). Ohh and all that money to get Egypt to switch sides? Can from Reagan, and then Bush 1, then Clinton, and then Bush 2. So THIS adminstration is not doing anything different then all the other administrations before it for years and years and years.


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## Kephart P.E. (Feb 18, 2011)

FusionWhite said:


> ^^^ Actually the problem is just the opposite in a lot of countries. In Egypt in particular Mubarak was a huge ally of the US and he and his country received billions a year in economic and military aid from the US. The fact that the protesters in Egypt werent pissed at the US is a bit of a miracle as far as Im concerned. We kept Mubarak fat and happy and in power for a long time and yet I rarely heard much said about the US by the protesters.


Not really, there is a strong voice of Islamic extremists in Egypt, Saudi, not just Iran.

Sure the US supported Mubarak, just like Saudi Arabia, but that didn't make the ruling parties put a stop to the Western hate groups. -If anything it make them more lenient to allow the groups to grow.

This way they couldn't be called out for being Anti Islamic.


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## benbo (Feb 18, 2011)

Kephart P.E. said:


> Not really, there is a strong voice of Islamic extremists in Egypt, Saudi, not just Iran.


Some might say that Egypt was the birthplace of what we now call Islamism. With Qutb and his student Ayman Zawahiri (a mentor of UBL). At least that's what it says in "The Looming Tower."

A lot of this predates Mubarak. I may be wrong, but I thought I read somewhere that the Muslim Brotherhood had something to do with Sadat's assasination because they didn't like the hanky panky with Isreal.

Anyway, as far as the recent goings on, they look fairly multifactional (although I have purposefully not been following it much). I was also sort of surprised at the lack of fiery anti US rhetoric. THat doesn't mean the sentiment doesn't exist. I don't know.


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## Capt Worley PE (Feb 22, 2011)

Bold talk from Khadaffty.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/22/...E71G0A620110222

He may get his wish.


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## Capt Worley PE (Feb 24, 2011)

uh-oh...



> WASHINGTON—The government of Col. Moammar Gadhafi hasn't destroyed significant stockpiles of mustard gas and other chemical-weapons agents, raising fears in Washington about what could happen to them—and whether they may be used—as Libya slides further into chaos.
> Tripoli also maintains control of aging Scud B missiles, U.S. officials said, as well as 1,000 metric tons of uranium yellowcake and vast amounts of conventional weapons that Col. Gadhafi has channeled in the past to militants operating in countries like Sudan and Chad.
> 
> Current and former U.S. officials said in interviews that Washington's counterproliferation operations against Libya over the past decade have scored gains, in particular the dismantling of Tripoli's nascent nuclear-weapons program and its Scud C missile stockpiles. But the level of instability in Libya, and Col. Gadhafi's history of brutality, continues to make the U.S. focus on the arms and chemical agents that remain, they said.
> ...




More: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405..._LEFTTopStories


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## wilheldp_PE (Feb 24, 2011)

Capt Worley PE said:


> > 1,000 metric tons of uranium yellowcake.


Oh shit...we invaded Iraq because they _didn't_ have yellowcake uranium. Imagine what we would do with somebody that actually does have some.


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## FusionWhite (Feb 24, 2011)

^^^ Probably nothing.

I just saw this on CNN:

"Benghazi, Libya (CNN) -- Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi on Thursday blamed the violence in his country on young people, who he said are taking some sort of pills and being exploited by Osama bin Laden."

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/24...ex.html?hpt=T1#

Blaming pills and Bin Laden for his countries problems. WTF is going on in that guys head?


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## snickerd3 (Feb 24, 2011)

hes been taking the crazy pills too


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## Capt Worley PE (Feb 24, 2011)

K-daffy has been insane for years. His greatest accomplishment was daring the Great Satan to cross the Line of Death in the Gulf of Sidrah. Today, it's known as the final resting place of the Libyan navy.


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## navyasw02 (Feb 24, 2011)

wilheldp_PE said:


> Capt Worley PE said:
> 
> 
> > > 1,000 metric tons of uranium yellowcake.
> ...


Yellowcake is my favorite kind, with chocolate frosting.


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## cableguy (Feb 24, 2011)

Wasn't it Robin Williams with the Line of Death routine?

This is my line of death. You cross it, you die.

{crossed... he backs up}

OK, This is my line of death. You cross it, you die.

{backs up again}

OK, This is my line of death. You cross it, you die.

{backs up again}

OK, you knock on my door, I'm not coming out.


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## Capt Worley PE (Feb 25, 2011)

I liked Kinison's routine.

"Jets were screaming in going, 'Where's the babies room?'"

"Well, we made one little error. we bombed the French Embassy. Maybe our aim would have been a little better if we didn't have to fly those extra 6500 air miles!"


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## FusionWhite (Feb 25, 2011)

^^^ In 1986 the US shot down a couple of Libyan planes over the Mediterranean Sea in a dispute over territorial waters. Libya then bombed a club in Berlin killing two US service members. The US then planned to bomb Libya (airfields and military targets) with F-111's based out of the UK. France, Spain and Italy all denied the US its airspace to carry out the airstrikes, requiring the bomber to fly around Europe adding a bunch of miles onto the trip and requiring extensive aerial refueling. Several bombs missed their intended targets and ended up hitting some embassies.


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## Capt Worley PE (Feb 25, 2011)

FW's explanation was better than mine.

As for Libya and oil, this is an interesting peice of info:


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## wilheldp_PE (Feb 25, 2011)

I sure am glad that gas prices are rising 10 to 15% per week because 5% of our oil supply is running at 25% production. I'm all for free market oil, but oil future speculation (i.e., putting fickle Wall Street traders in charge of oil prices) is the real cause of higher gas prices.


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## cableguy (Feb 25, 2011)

Capt Worley PE said:


> I liked Kinison's routine.
> "Jets were screaming in going, [SIZE=18pt]'Where's the babies room?'"[/SIZE]
> 
> "Well, we made one little error. we bombed the French Embassy. Maybe our aim would have[SIZE=18pt] been a little better if we [/SIZE] [SIZE=36pt]didn't have to fly those extra 6500 air miles![/SIZE]"


Quoted in "Kinison" format...


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## Capt Worley PE (Feb 25, 2011)

cableguy said:


> Capt Worley PE said:
> 
> 
> > I liked Kinison's routine.
> ...


LOL, I thought about it, but was too lazy.


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## FLBuff PE (Feb 25, 2011)

[No message]


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## wilheldp_PE (Mar 26, 2011)

Well, it turned out that Libya was next (and worse than Tunisia and Egypt). It appears that Syria is teetering on the brink. And now we have anarchy in the UK.

I have to admit, though, I'm a little miffed about the use of the term "anarchy" in that article. Those people are protesting because the government is trying to cut spending and get a little bit SMALLER. Anarchists would be protesting the expansion of government.


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