# Hydrologic Analysis of Cut Score



## H2Ohhh (Apr 28, 2010)

Freshly out of disastrous PE exam, I thought I'd analyze "CUT SCORE" hydrologically and share with you all.

Here's how I analyzed "CUT SCORE."

I used SCS Unit Hydrographs' time ratios, discharge ratios, and mass curve ratios to come up with a cut score with a few assumptions. I scaled 80 questions to the time ratios, and plotted the discharge ratios and mass curve against it. Remember, an UH is a nice "bell-shaped" curve. The mass curve intersects the UH exactly at 0.7. I assumed this intersection's UH ratio as NCEES's cut score of 70. I also assumed that the area under mass curve beyond the intersection is a "PASS ZONE" and the area beneath the intersection point a "FAIL ZONE."

The total number of questions needed to be answered correctly in order to fall in the "PASS ZONE" is, hydrologically, *56*.

In order to pass the PE, you must atleast score *56/80*. I proved it hydrologically!!!

Make no mistake, when you say a scaled score of 70, in fact, it is 70%.

You think I am insane? so be it.

:brickwall:


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## MWC PE (Apr 29, 2010)

I doubt anyone is disputing that 56/80 would pass. What the real question is how many below 56 can you get right and still pass? IE what is the curve? Since NCEES keeps this a secret and it will be two months before results come out there is nothing to do but make up numbers for the mythical cut score. I'm going to throw out 53 as the cut score. Am I right, I'll never know.


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## H2Ohhh (Apr 29, 2010)

I looked back at my hydrograph (here after referred to as Scorograph) this morning to look for an answer to "how many below 56 can you get right and still pass?" posed by mwchandler21. I think, I have an answer for that too!

When I looked closely at my Scorograph, I found that the number of questions fall between the intersection of mass curve and UH, and the point of inflection of the UH is exactly 3. If I further assume NCEES's "PASS ZONE" is beyound the point of inflection, than the CUT SCORE reduces to *53*. If my third assumption is right, then mwchandler21's 53 as the cut score is validated.


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## H2Ohhh (Apr 29, 2010)

H2Ohhh said:


> Freshly out of disastrous PE exam, I thought I'd analyze "CUT SCORE" hydrologically and share with you all.
> Here's how I analyzed "CUT SCORE."
> 
> I used SCS Unit Hydrographs' time ratios, discharge ratios, and mass curve ratios to come up with a cut score with a few assumptions. I scaled 80 questions to the time ratios, and plotted the discharge ratios and mass curve against it. Remember, an UH is a nice "bell-shaped" curve. The mass curve intersects the UH exactly at 0.7. I assumed this intersection's UH ratio as NCEES's cut score of 70. I also assumed that the area under mass curve beyond the intersection is a "PASS ZONE" and the area beneath the intersection point a "FAIL ZONE."
> ...



Scorograph is attached.


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## Mapes (Apr 29, 2010)

The NCEES "Zone of Comfort" looks more like a "Zone of DISCOMFORT". Although the whole experience of waiting is pretty much a zone of discomfort. Funny stuff tho.


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## RIP - VTEnviro (Apr 30, 2010)

H2Ohhh said:


> Freshly out of disastrous PE exam, I thought I'd analyze "CUT SCORE" hydrologically and share with you all.
> Here's how I analyzed "CUT SCORE."
> 
> I used SCS Unit Hydrographs' time ratios, discharge ratios, and mass curve ratios to come up with a cut score with a few assumptions. I scaled 80 questions to the time ratios, and plotted the discharge ratios and mass curve against it. Remember, an UH is a nice "bell-shaped" curve. The mass curve intersects the UH exactly at 0.7. I assumed this intersection's UH ratio as NCEES's cut score of 70. I also assumed that the area under mass curve beyond the intersection is a "PASS ZONE" and the area beneath the intersection point a "FAIL ZONE."
> ...


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## H2Ohhh (Apr 30, 2010)




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## MWC PE (Apr 30, 2010)

The bear just doesn't like statistics is all. I feel his pain.


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## mustangcobra93 (Jun 11, 2010)

Shoot for an 80/80 and you don't have anything to worry about.


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