# Pass Rates Are Telling Us Something!



## JoeysVee (Oct 20, 2009)

The pass rate for April 09 was 72% (higher than it's ever been)...

http://www.ncees.org/exams/pass_rates/

And the pass rate for October 08 was 70%...

http://ppi2pass.com/ppi/PPIInfo_pg_myppi-f...epassrates.html

If you look at the history it means 1 or 2 things... 1) This thing is getting easier or 2) it means they are about to whip our ass Friday to bring the passing rates back down into the mid 60s. When I took the exam in April 06 the pass rate was 63% OUCH! Usually a high passing rate is followed by a couple of low passing rate exams.

I bet the passing rate for the exam on Friday will NOT be in the 70s! Saddle up boys &amp; girls and get ready to take an exam where the passing rate is in the mid to low 60s!


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## benbo (Oct 20, 2009)

JoeysVee said:


> The pass rate for April 09 was 72% (higher than it's ever been)...
> http://www.ncees.org/exams/pass_rates/
> 
> And the pass rate for October 08 was 70%...
> ...


I don't believe this 2% difference means anything at all.


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## JoeysVee (Oct 20, 2009)

benbo said:


> I don't believe this 2% difference means anything at all.


That's not the point...you're right 2% doesn't mean anything but typically a higher passing rate is followed by a not so high passing rate. A 72 is the highest on record...I bet the one on Friday will be several percent lower...and yeah that makes a difference.


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## benbo (Oct 20, 2009)

JoeysVee said:


> That's not the point...you're right 2% doesn't mean anything but typically a higher passing rate is followed by a not so high passing rate. A 72 is the highest on record...I bet the one on Friday will be several percent lower...and yeah that makes a difference.


That is not even true for the data you linked to. There is no requirement that this has to average out to some magical number. For the mechanical test it went up four times in a row. A person could have made this dire prediction either of the last two administrations of the test and they would have been wrong.

And even if it was true, it is almost always a matter of a couple percentage points swing from one time to the next.

I will say that a 70+ pass rate is pretty high, so it might come down a bit, but you can't read anything into this pattern.

I think there's enough things for testtakers to worry about and this is not one of them..


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## Capt Worley PE (Oct 20, 2009)

I'm betting it is somewhere between 70 and 72, but I think JoeysVee is spending too much time worrying about it.

Remember JV, overall pass rate means nothing. Your pass rate does.

Good luck, BTW!!!


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## JoeysVee (Oct 20, 2009)

benbo said:


> That is not even true for the data you linked to. There is no requirement that this has to average out to some magical number. For the mechanical test it went up four times in a row. A person could have made this dire prediction either of the last two administrations of the test and they would have been wrong.
> And even if it was true, it is almost always a matter of a couple percentage points swing from one time to the next.
> 
> I think there's enough things for testtakers to worry about and this is not one of them..


Of course there's is no requirement...and no magical number...that's why I said it's either getting easier or about to average out.

Here's the bottom line....would you rather take an exam where the passing rate high or low? Obviously, high. Based on history, a 72 is high and based on history it will not continue to be that high. Could I be wrong...sure it could be 80% but I bet the exam this Friday is a 65% or lower. That's just a guess based on the history.

I hope I’m wrong.


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## JoeysVee (Oct 20, 2009)

Capt Worley PE said:


> I'm betting it is somewhere between 70 and 72, but I think JoeysVee is spending too much time worrying about it.
> Remember JV, overall pass rate means nothing. Your pass rate does.
> 
> Good luck, BTW!!!


Thanks! You are right, it's nothing to worry about because there's nothing we can do but go kick it's ass, lol!


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## roadwreck (Oct 20, 2009)

Quit worrying about things that are out of your control. The pass rates are meaningless for those of you taking the exam Friday. Do your best, you are almost there, quit fretting over the things you can't control.

Good luck!


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## JoeysVee (Oct 20, 2009)

roadwreck said:


> Quit worrying about things that are out of your control. The pass rates are meaningless for those of you taking the exam Friday. Do your best, you are almost there, quit fretting over the things you can't control.
> Good luck!


Maybe y'all are right...I should just go back to working problems so I can pass this thing! :beerchug:


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## chaocl (Oct 20, 2009)

I think this time should be around 68% or less.....It means that we need more study otherwise 3 months later we are that 32% who failed.

Continued study....but don't study a lot on Thursday.


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## Mike in Gastonia (Oct 20, 2009)

JoeysVee said:


> The pass rate for April 09 was 72% (higher than it's ever been)...
> http://www.ncees.org/exams/pass_rates/
> 
> And the pass rate for October 08 was 70%...
> ...


Boy, if that's the case, I feel sorry for the next group that takes the Naval exam! Their first time pass rate in April was 100%!!

Seriously, wasn't October last year the first time with the revised specifications? So it probably has something to do with that.


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## Kephart P.E. (Oct 27, 2009)

I doubt NCEES will actively try and lower the pass rate. I mean if Marine Engineering has a 100% pass rate and they certify those results I don't know that it really matters.


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## JoeysVee (Jan 11, 2010)

Turns out the pass rate was lower but not quite as much as I thought....

http://www.ncees.org/Exams/Pass_rates.php


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## YaGoof (Jan 11, 2010)

JoeysVee said:


> Turns out the pass rate was lower but not quite as much as I thought....
> http://www.ncees.org/Exams/Pass_rates.php


If you perform a standard 95% confidence interval on pass rates, the range is 59%-72% -- meaning analyzing pass rate data is like analyzing noise.


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