I have a question relating to sensitivity of ESAL calculations in 3R projects. Recently, I had an opportunity to work on a ESAL forecast for a resurfacing project and decided to use 2.5% growth rate for Opening,Mid and Design years based on historical traffic volumes and population projections. However, at the end my supervisor decided to to use a growth rate of 8% which was completely based on Transportation Model volumes for the long range year.
I wasn't comfortable in using the 8% as the model has higher projects and the also the base year (2005) volumes were higher/close to the existing volumes (Year 2011). My supervisor had an argument "Be Conservative".
I am not a roadway designer and would like your help in understanding how would you be using the ESAL values that I provide for a resurfacing project. What are the impact of an incorrectly calculated forecast. Also, Is there a different approach for forecasting ESAL for "Add Turn Lanes" project or is it similar to a Resurfacing Project.
I have done some search online , but dint knew exactly what to look for.
I appreciate you time.
No replies to this topic
0 user(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users