Oct 2015

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Your daily notice: 

Based upon the last 9 releases and @matt267 's "brilliant" observation (adding 3.5 days to April results to account for thanksgiving) there is a  0.0000% chance results will be released today.

You're welcome.

 
On this day last year, I got my FE results, 4 days after taking it.

I think they need to do computer exams for the PE too so we don't have to wait freaking forever.

 
Your daily notice: 

Based upon the last 9 releases (adding 2.5 days to April results to account for thanksgiving) and assuming NCEES is open the Friday after Thanksgiving, there is a  0.0213% chance results will be released today.

You're welcome.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
My feeling since the exam:

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How is the probability of "results being released" being determined?  As each day passes and the projected pool of dates that the results being released diminishes, does the percentage increase also for each remaining day?  For example, on November 24th:

12/15 at 8.0667% 

12/14 and 12/16 tied for second with 7.9035%
As of today, does 12/15 still have a 8.0667% probability or is it closer to 9% or 10%?

Side note: I've been using a Star Wars Episode 7 movie release date, online countdown timer as my anticipated PE results release date.  As of today, there are 18 days left.

 
How is the probability of "results being released" being determined?  As each day passes and the projected pool of dates that the results being released diminishes, does the percentage increase also for each remaining day?  For example, on November 24th:

On 11/24/2015, 8:22:49, glockjacket said:

12/15 at 8.0667% 

12/14 and 12/16 tied for second with 7.9035%
As of today, does 12/15 still have a 8.0667% probability or is it closer to 9% or 10%?

Side note: I've been using a Star Wars Episode 7 movie release date, online countdown timer as my anticipated PE results release date.  As of today, there are 18 days left.
There is a 0.00% chance of the results being released today.

 
How is the probability of "results being released" being determined?  As each day passes and the projected pool of dates that the results being released diminishes, does the percentage increase also for each remaining day?  For example, on November 24th:

As of today, does 12/15 still have a 8.0667% probability or is it closer to 9% or 10%?

Side note: I've been using a Star Wars Episode 7 movie release date, online countdown timer as my anticipated PE results release date.  As of today, there are 18 days left.
My excel file is on my work computer and I'm off until Wednesday so now until Wednesday the odds are just calculated as of before thanksgiving using a normal dist (I very high techly took a picture of the screen).  Once im back ill update the odds to account for the fact they havent been released yet

 
Your daily notice for Monday, November 30th: 

Based upon the last 9 releases (adding 3.5 days to April results to account for thanksgiving), there is a  0.1657% chance results will be released today.

You're welcome.

 

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