EB Mafia

[tj_PE]

(2) @Dothracki (duran, txj)

(1) @DuranDuran (dothracki)

 

[DLD PE]

By that logic, why aren't you suspicious of me?  I was on RB's Mafia + list and probably have the most inconsistent voting record of the four of us.  @DuranDuran was the first to vote out square, but I led the charge against someone who ended up being innocent.  

You aren't suspicious of me because you already know I'm a townie.

@tj_PE I vote for @Dothracki

This.  

Also, @Dothracki you're incorrect. I did not "vote for you and turn everyone against you."  @txjennah PE had her suspicions of you before I mentioned it. I had my vote against MadamP this morning.  How is "everyone" against you when you only have one vote?

 

[DLD PE]

Okay, I’m working through your system here and I’m stuck. 
 

for 

So I claim townie/doctor. 
Is A my personal Chance of winning, or my team’s chance of winning?

If you crack his system, you win an honorary degree from GA Tech.

 

[MadamPirate PE]

If you crack his system, you win an honorary degree from GA Tech.

I am honestly trying to work through it. 

 

[DLD PE]

Update:  i don't care what happens today. I feel deflated.  Just got email that my PE exam has been cancelled.

 

[MadamPirate PE]

Update:  i don't care what happens today. I feel deflated.  Just got email that my PE exam has been cancelled.

Oh man, I am SO SORRY.

 

[Dothracki PE]

Update:  i don't care what happens today. I feel deflated.  Just got email that my PE exam has been cancelled.

SERIOUSLY?!?? I got it too. Well on the bright side some more prep time... 

 

[txjennah PE]

Update:  i don't care what happens today. I feel deflated.  Just got email that my PE exam has been cancelled.

I'm so sorry

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Okay, I’m working through your system here and I’m stuck. 
 

for 

So I claim townie/doctor. 
Is A my personal Chance of winning, or my team’s chance of winning?

(A) is you chance of winning at the moment before you made your announcement.

(C) is the chance of the town winning, assuming you are in fact the doctor, just before your announcement.

Both (A) and (C) are easily quantifiable.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Update:  i don't care what happens today. I feel deflated.  Just got email that my PE exam has been cancelled.

aww man, I'm sorry to read that! I least you're learning this now and not after spending hundreds of hours in September and October studying.

 

[MadamPirate PE]

(A) is you chance of winning at the moment before you made your announcement.

(C) is the chance of the town winning, assuming you are in fact the doctor, just before your announcement.

Both (A) and (C) are easily quantifiable.

So I got 

A: 25%

B1: 66%

B2: 33%

C 75%
 

yes?

 

[JayKay PE]

DO NOT TRUST! ON WEIRD SCHEDULE AND HAS BRAIN FOG!

My overnights are finishing this week, since the actual construction work is done tonight. 
 

...but I may have brain fog. But I really want to do a fantasy-theme or Wild West-themed Madia round...

 

[DLD PE]

My overnights are finishing this week, since the actual construction work is done tonight. 
 

...but I may have brain fog. But I really want to do a fantasy-theme or Wild West-themed Madia round...

With JK at the helm, I can already see myself dying from an intestinal parasite.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

(A) You need to look at the vote count against you, and factor the potential for additional votes, at the time of your announcement. You'll need those voted count when finding B,C,D below too.

B1 and B2 instructions are little ambiguous as written.  I messed up when adding (C) and (D) to generalize the recipe.

(B1) = if you survived the vote and were a townie, what is your chance to win the game. 

(B2)= if you survived the vote and were mafia, what is your chance to win the game. 

 

[RBHeadge PE]

3.1.1.4.2 should read "What would be town win probability (D) assuming claim is true and town takes appropriate mitigate actions (include relevant event tree branches)"

 

[MadamPirate PE]

(A) You need to look at the vote count against you, and factor the potential for additional votes, at the time of your announcement. You'll need those voted count when finding B,C,D below too.

B1 and B2 instructions are little ambiguous as written.  I messed up when adding (C) and (D) to generalize the recipe.

(B1) = if you survived the vote and were a townie, what is your chance to win the game. 

(B2)= if you survived the vote and were mafia, what is your chance to win the game. 

Without all these shenanigans, txj looks like the Maf.

i can’t get myself through your ladder logic, friend. I’m cornfused. 

 

[Tiger15]

Assume three categories: safe: unknown: mafia.

1. Look at days when a mafia was voted out. Who cast the critical votes? Consider them "safe" for the moment.
   
2. Now assume each of those players are mafia. Would it have made any sense for the mafia win probability percentage to vote out one of their own to give the appearance of townie+++.
   
   If the answer is no, consider them "safe".
   
3. If the answer is yes, place them in the "unknown" category.
   

[*]Okay, this next part is a little tricky, and most people will need to pencil and paper. Look at anyone making a claim today. Is today a do-or-die day (critical) for either side? 

1. 
   If it's not a critical day for the claimants alleged team, does the claim put the claimant at personal risk?
   
   If yes:
   
   What was the claimants win probability (A) prior to claim?
   
2. Now for simplicity ignore a doctor save tonight and , what would it be the claimants win probability for each townie and mafia alignment (B1 and B2) after tonight's nightkill?
   
3. Compare A, B1, B2 to each other to determine safe,unknown,mafia.
   
4. If insufficient data,
   
   assume claimant is true, what was town win probability prior to claim (C)? 
   
5. What would be town win probability (D) assuming claim is true, mis-lynch tonight, nightkill and events tomorrow.
   
6. Compare C and D to parse out claimant's alignment.
   
7. If needed rack and stack A, B1, B2, C, D to determine alignments. 
   

[*]If no, then its a stupid-risk for the last mafia to make a false claim. You can still game out per 3.1.1.1-4 for completeness.


[*]If it is a critical day for the claimants alleged team, then evaluate per 3.1.1.1-4 at your own risk and judgement


[*]Is anyone left without an assigned category? Can you use POE to figure out their alignment?

[*]At the least, you should at least know who is safe from this exercise to improve odds of guessing right.

View attachment 15829

@RBHeadge PE, this isn't liek the PE exam where it has to be done independently. This is more like a group project, so you can just tell everyone the answer.  

 

[RBHeadge PE]

View attachment 15829

@RBHeadge PE, this isn't liek the PE exam where it has to be done independently. This is more like a group project, so you can just tell everyone the answer.  

it would be fair to three people but not to last one. 

 

[JayKay PE]

With JK at the helm, I can already see myself dying from an intestinal parasite.

An intestinal parasite named @Audi driver, P.E.  it’d be a little like ‘Alien’ but with less drama. 

 

[Dothracki PE]

My overnights are finishing this week, since the actual construction work is done tonight. 
 

...but I may have brain fog. But I really want to do a fantasy-theme or Wild West-themed Madia round...

WESTWORLD THEME!

@tj_PE not that it's going to do much at this point, but going back all the way to the beginning, looking at voting and summation of everyones reads, I am going to change my vote at this point to @txjennah PE