EB Mafia

[MadamPirate PE]

Assume three categories: safe: unknown: mafia.

1. Look at days when a mafia was voted out. Who cast the critical votes? Consider them "safe" for the moment.
   
2. Now assume each of those players are mafia. Would it have made any sense for the mafia win probability percentage to vote out one of their own to give the appearance of townie+++.
   
   If the answer is no, consider them "safe".
   
3. If the answer is yes, place them in the "unknown" category.
   

[*]Okay, this next part is a little tricky, and most people will need to pencil and paper. Look at anyone making a claim today. Is today a do-or-die day (critical) for either side? 

1. 
   If it's not a critical day for the claimants alleged team, does the claim put the claimant at personal risk?
   
   If yes:
   
   What was the claimants win probability (A) prior to claim?
   
2. Now for simplicity ignore a doctor save tonight and , what would it be the claimants win probability for each townie and mafia alignment (B1 and B2) after tonight's nightkill?
   
3. Compare A, B1, B2 to each other to determine safe,unknown,mafia.
   
4. If insufficient data,
   
   assume claimant is true, what was town win probability prior to claim (C)? 
   
5. What would be town win probability (D) assuming claim is true, mis-lynch tonight, nightkill and events tomorrow.
   
6. Compare C and D to parse out claimant's alignment.
   
7. If needed rack and stack A, B1, B2, C, D to determine alignments. 
   

[*]If no, then its a stupid-risk for the last mafia to make a false claim. You can still game out per 3.1.1.1-4 for completeness.


[*]If it is a critical day for the claimants alleged team, then evaluate per 3.1.1.1-4 at your own risk and judgement


[*]Is anyone left without an assigned category? Can you use POE to figure out their alignment?

[*]At the least, you should at least know who is safe from this exercise to improve odds of guessing right.

By posting this, does that mean you’ve figured it out?

 

[RBHeadge PE]

By posting this, does that mean you’ve figured it out?

I'm reasonably confident in my conclusions. I generalized the recipe so it doesn't force an uninformed conclusion. It took me more time to write out the algorithm, particularly step 3, than it did to solve.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

I just went through @RBHeadge PE's exercise.

I came up with (6 + j2.5) ohms.

Sorry the answer is most nearly (D) 7 MeV/nucleon

Shit, I got 32 kips.

Must have the conversion wrong somewhere.

I got 29 kA. I think your units are wrong. 

everyone is repping their respective disciplines today.

 

[Dothracki PE]

Either @Dothracki has actual work or is SUSPISH

My fitbit can concur with the latter as I was surveying three buildings today in Brooklyn. I posted earlier with my scheduled lunchbreak.

 

[Dothracki PE]

everyone is repping their respective disciplines today.

I got 2800 CFM

 

[Dothracki PE]

TRIPLE POST

 

[txjennah PE]

agreed!  I feel bad for @JayKay PE who had to write all those deaths.

 I reread the public thread on it a few weeks ago. It was fun to re-read but also painful. Goddamn we made a bunch of mistakes!

I just remember being really surprised because at one point, I'd given up and started trolling, thinking that I was gonna get voted out, but I managed to live for another day.

Would def like to hear if your conclusions are correct after this game is complete!

 

[DLD PE]

I didn't think it was that complicated. Steps 1,2,5 can be done in a couple minutes.

Which is why I stopped after undergrad you went to grad school, and why I went to UT and you got into GA Tech lol.

I knew people who went to GA Tech.  When I was like "This shit's so beyond me I can't even get upset about it, they were like, "It can be done in a couple mins."  

And I'd be like, "Can I have some of that brain material?" 

:Locolaugh:

 

[DLD PE]

I got 2800 CFM

Wrong discipline, hence my vote.

 

[txjennah PE]

My fitbit can concur with the latter as I was surveying three buildings today in Brooklyn. I posted earlier with my scheduled lunchbreak.

View attachment 18326

You can have actual work but still be suspish ::squinty eyes::

 

[Roarbark]

^this=me in HS

My checklist was
1. Turn it off/on
2. Remove the cartridge and blow on/in it
3. Give it a good smack. 

Has fixed most issues in life. 

everyone is repping their respective disciplines today.

The mafia/townie in question should be able to handle the wet-weather sewer flow without issue. No need to upsize. 

 

[JayKay PE]

I...wait. Am I the last maf?

 

[RBHeadge PE]

I...wait. Am I the last maf?

 

[JayKay PE]

Even more dramatic plot twist:

I’m getting the urge to mod again. 

 

[DoctorWho-PE]

Even more dramatic plot twist:

I’m getting the urge to mod again. 

DO NOT TRUST! ON WEIRD SCHEDULE AND HAS BRAIN FOG!

 

[Dothracki PE]

@tj_PE I am going to go with RBH on this and vote for @DuranDuran wether everyone believes that I am not mafia or not. He only voted for me and turned everyone against me after I brought him up in the thread. 

 

[tj_PE]

(1) @Dothracki (duran)

(1) @DuranDuran (dothracki)

 

[tj_PE]

it's really hard for me to keep up with the times provided with commuting and being on the west coast. i like modding but i dont like letting people down by not providing information the moment it is requested so i'll prob not mod for a while lol

 

[txjennah PE]

@tj_PE I am going to go with RBH on this and vote for @DuranDuran wether everyone believes that I am not mafia or not. He only voted for me and turned everyone against me after I brought him up in the thread. 

By that logic, why aren't you suspicious of me?  I was on RB's Mafia + list and probably have the most inconsistent voting record of the four of us.  @DuranDuran was the first to vote out square, but I led the charge against someone who ended up being innocent.  

You aren't suspicious of me because you already know I'm a townie.

@tj_PE I vote for @Dothracki

 

[MadamPirate PE]

I'm reasonably confident in my conclusions. I generalized the recipe so it doesn't force an uninformed conclusion. It took me more time to write out the algorithm, particularly step 3, than it did to solve.

Okay, I’m working through your system here and I’m stuck. 
 

for 

Okay, this next part is a little tricky, and most people will need to pencil and paper. Look at anyone making a claim today. Is today a do-or-die day (critical) for either side? 

1. If it's not a critical day for the claimants alleged team, does the claim put the claimant at personal risk?
   
   If yes:
   
   What was the claimants win probability (A) prior to claim?
   
2. Now for simplicity ignore a doctor save tonight and , what would it be the claimants win probability for each townie and mafia alignment (B1 and B2) after tonight's nightkill?
   

So I claim townie/doctor. 
Is A my personal Chance of winning, or my team’s chance of winning?