EB Mafia

[blybrook PE]

As a dead mafioso this round, I know but can't provide any insight or speculation. It's been a good round regardless of how today's lynching goes. 

 

[RBHeadge PE]

I know it’s not meeeeeee

Also, I feel the exact same way, and I can’t determine anything from voting patterns. 
 

Aren’t dedded people allowed to speculate with us? Lol

Assume three categories: safe: unknown: mafia.

1. Look at days when a mafia was voted out. Who cast the critical votes? Consider them "safe" for the moment.
   
2. Now assume each of those players are mafia. Would it have made any sense for the mafia win probability percentage to vote out one of their own to give the appearance of townie+++.
   
   If the answer is no, consider them "safe".
   
3. If the answer is yes, place them in the "unknown" category.
   

[*]Okay, this next part is a little tricky, and most people will need to pencil and paper. Look at anyone making a claim today. Is today a do-or-die day (critical) for either side? 

1. 
   If it's not a critical day for the claimants alleged team, does the claim put the claimant at personal risk?
   
   If yes:
   
   What was the claimants win probability (A) prior to claim?
   
2. Now for simplicity ignore a doctor save tonight and , what would it be the claimants win probability for each townie and mafia alignment (B1 and B2) after tonight's nightkill?
   
3. Compare A, B1, B2 to each other to determine safe,unknown,mafia.
   
4. If insufficient data,
   
   assume claimant is true, what was town win probability prior to claim (C)? 
   
5. What would be town win probability (D) assuming claim is true, mis-lynch tonight, nightkill and events tomorrow.
   
6. Compare C and D to parse out claimant's alignment.
   
7. If needed rack and stack A, B1, B2, C, D to determine alignments. 
   

[*]If no, then its a stupid-risk for the last mafia to make a false claim. You can still game out per 3.1.1.1-4 for completeness.


[*]If it is a critical day for the claimants alleged team, then evaluate per 3.1.1.1-4 at your own risk and judgement


[*]Is anyone left without an assigned category? Can you use POE to figure out their alignment?

[*]At the least, you should at least know who is safe from this exercise to improve odds of guessing right.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

As a dead mafioso this round, I know but can't provide any insight or speculation. It's been a good round regardless of how today's lynching goes. 

lusone:

 

[txjennah PE]

Thanks for the input, all.
From my experience, mafia killing mafia works best when it's a large game.  When we did it, there was four of us and we did it very first round so that we could play the long game. Doesn't make sense for duran to kill off the second mafioso.  Unless he's playing a riskier Mafia game than I'm giving him credit for, I'd say he's a townie.

It's very possible madam is lying about being a special character, but I don't have many alternatives other than to trust her.

Right now I'm leaning towards @Dothracki

 

[DLD PE]

I just went through @RBHeadge PE's exercise.

I came up with (6 + j2.5) ohms.

 

[DLD PE]

Thanks for the input, all.
From my experience, mafia killing mafia works best when it's a large game.  When we did it, there was four of us and we did it very first round so that we could play the long game. Doesn't make sense for duran to kill off the second mafioso.  Unless he's playing a riskier Mafia game than I'm giving him credit for, I'd say he's a townie.

It's very possible madam is lying about being a special character, but I don't have many alternatives other than to trust her.

Right now I'm leaning towards @Dothracki

I'm inclined to believe this.  I'm suspicious of @MadamPirate PE's claim (and reasoning) to save @txjennah PE, but right now I can't put any holes in her story.  

I'm leaning @Dothracki

@tj_PE i vote for @Dothracki.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

From my experience, mafia killing mafia works best when it's a large game.  When we did it, there was four of us and we did it very first round so that we could play the long game.

This got me curious I went back to look at the townie PM thread for that game. We never analyzed the first day's vote. The mafia voted out one of their own on day 2, but it was during a tie between two mafia players. I consciously knew that nothing could be derived from that vote but I still kept spickett/saltysteve in my likely-townie tier for investigation priorities. That was a mistake. I made a few mistakes that round... Anyway once we learned his alignment we retroactively figured a few more things out and that led to you. We should have kept following the logic trail. But instead followed out gut voted out the wrong person on the second to last day.

 

[tj_PE]

(1) @Dothracki (duran)

 

[RBHeadge PE]

I just went through @RBHeadge PE's exercise.

I came up with (6 + j2.5) ohms.

Sorry the answer is most nearly (D) 7 MeV/nucleon

 

[DoctorWho-PE]

Assume three categories: safe: unknown: mafia.

1. Look at days when a mafia was voted out. Who cast the critical votes? Consider them "safe" for the moment.
   
2. Now assume each of those players are mafia. Would it have made any sense for the mafia win probability percentage to vote out one of their own to give the appearance of townie+++.
   
   If the answer is no, consider them "safe".
   
3. If the answer is yes, place them in the "unknown" category.
   

[*]Okay, this next part is a little tricky, and most people will need to pencil and paper. Look at anyone making a claim today. Is today a do-or-die day (critical) for either side? 

1. 
   If it's not a critical day for the claimants alleged team, does the claim put the claimant at personal risk?
   
   If yes:
   
   What was the claimants win probability (A) prior to claim?
   
2. Now for simplicity ignore a doctor save tonight and , what would it be the claimants win probability for each townie and mafia alignment (B1 and B2) after tonight's nightkill?
   
3. Compare A, B1, B2 to each other to determine safe,unknown,mafia.
   
4. If insufficient data,
   
   assume claimant is true, what was town win probability prior to claim (C)? 
   
5. What would be town win probability (D) assuming claim is true, mis-lynch tonight, nightkill and events tomorrow.
   
6. Compare C and D to parse out claimant's alignment.
   
7. If needed rack and stack A, B1, B2, C, D to determine alignments. 
   

[*]If no, then its a stupid-risk for the last mafia to make a false claim. You can still game out per 3.1.1.1-4 for completeness.


[*]If it is a critical day for the claimants alleged team, then evaluate per 3.1.1.1-4 at your own risk and judgement


[*]Is anyone left without an assigned category? Can you use POE to figure out their alignment?

[*]At the least, you should at least know who is safe from this exercise to improve odds of guessing right.

Ouch, my brain hurts.

 

[DoctorWho-PE]

I just went through @RBHeadge PE's exercise.

I came up with (6 + j2.5) ohms.

****, I got 32 kips.

Must have the conversion wrong somewhere.

 

[MadamPirate PE]

I just went through @RBHeadge PE's exercise.

I came up with (6 + j2.5) ohms.

I got 29 kA. I think your units are wrong. 

 

[Roarbark]

Assume three categories: safe: unknown: mafia.

1. Look at days when a mafia was voted out. Who cast the critical votes? Consider them "safe" for the moment.
   
2. Now assume each of those players are mafia. Would it have made any sense for the mafia win probability percentage to vote out one of their own to give the appearance of townie+++.
   
   If the answer is no, consider them "safe".
   
3. If the answer is yes, place them in the "unknown" category.
   

[*]Okay, this next part is a little tricky, and most people will need to pencil and paper. Look at anyone making a claim today. Is today a do-or-die day (critical) for either side? 

1. 
   If it's not a critical day for the claimants alleged team, does the claim put the claimant at personal risk?
   
   If yes:
   
   What was the claimants win probability (A) prior to claim?
   
2. Now for simplicity ignore a doctor save tonight and , what would it be the claimants win probability for each townie and mafia alignment (B1 and B2) after tonight's nightkill?
   
3. Compare A, B1, B2 to each other to determine safe,unknown,mafia.
   
4. If insufficient data,
   
   assume claimant is true, what was town win probability prior to claim (C)? 
   
5. What would be town win probability (D) assuming claim is true, mis-lynch tonight, nightkill and events tomorrow.
   
6. Compare C and D to parse out claimant's alignment.
   
7. If needed rack and stack A, B1, B2, C, D to determine alignments. 
   

[*]If no, then its a stupid-risk for the last mafia to make a false claim. You can still game out per 3.1.1.1-4 for completeness.


[*]If it is a critical day for the claimants alleged team, then evaluate per 3.1.1.1-4 at your own risk and judgement


[*]Is anyone left without an assigned category? Can you use POE to figure out their alignment?

[*]At the least, you should at least know who is safe from this exercise to improve odds of guessing right.

 

[Roarbark]

Another good reaction:

 

[DLD PE]

Sorry the answer is most nearly (D) 7 MeV/nucleon

I just realized your analysis most closely resembles ladder logic, a subtopic of circuits on the PE exam. Although fun, can be very challenging! 

Also reminds me of early programming languages with all the "IF" abd "THEN" statements.  

My attitude was, "If THIS damn thing doesn't work for the upteenth effing time, Imma turn this **** off!"

 

[RBHeadge PE]

I didn't think it was that complicated. Steps 1,2,5 can be done in a couple minutes.

 

[txjennah PE]

This got me curious I went back to look at the townie PM thread for that game. We never analyzed the first day's vote. The mafia voted out one of their own on day 2, but it was during a tie between two mafia players. I consciously knew that nothing could be derived from that vote but I still kept spickett/saltysteve in my likely-townie tier for investigation priorities. That was a mistake. I made a few mistakes that round... Anyway once we learned his alignment we retroactively figured a few more things out and that led to you. We should have kept following the logic trail. But instead followed out gut voted out the wrong person on the second to last day.

Ah, was it the second day? ok.  Hahahah that round was crazy, one of my favorite mafia games ever.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

My attitude was, "If THIS damn thing doesn't work for the upteenth effing time, Imma throw the monitor on the floor and kick it a few times turn this **** off!"

^this=me in HS

 

[txjennah PE]

I'm with you @DuranDuran, although I'm a townie, I admittedly have a lot of suspicion. I could have very easily been a mafia member trying to paint two townies as evil.  I still don't know why I got saved and not someone who was clearly innocent like vhab.

Idk idk. I was leaning @Dothracki but I am questioning myself again.

 

[RBHeadge PE]

Ah, was it the second day? ok.  Hahahah that round was crazy, one of my favorite mafia games ever.

agreed!  I feel bad for @JayKay PE who had to write all those deaths.

 I reread the public thread on it a few weeks ago. It was fun to re-read but also painful. ******* we made a bunch of mistakes!