2019 Novel Coronavirus

[Road Guy]

California is probably 6 months away from eating dog food //content.invisioncic.com/r86644/emoticons/default_wink.png

They will probably still be on stay at home orders this time next year....

 

[Master slacker]

The virus is real and this is not a massive conspiracy to impose socialism on the US.

I don't think anyone is saying the virus isn't real.  However, the response, in hindsight, was completely overblown (and still is IMHO).  First it was "flatten the curve" and now it's "we must wait for the vaccine".  With that said, consider this.  Even with a flu vaccine, flu deaths are estimated to range between 10,000 - 61,000 each year.  And not all flu cases are reported:

CDC officials do not have exact counts of how many people die from flu each year. Flu is so common that not all flu cases are reported, and flu is not always listed on death certificates. So the CDC uses statistical models, which are periodically revised, to make estimates.

As of yesterday, there have been 84,000 deaths directly attributed to COVID.  However, Dr. Birx has stated that the actual death count is inflated:

“I think in this country, we are taking a very liberal approach to mortality. And I think the reporting here has been pretty straightforward over the last five to six weeks,” she said, adding, “If someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that.”

I'm not looking to change anyone's mind, but if it were possible to just compare seasonal flu to COVID on a level playing field, these hospitalization and death numbers would be different (and closer).  

 

[Dleg]

Arrgh. If someone dies of AIDS, it's not the HIV that kills them. It's the pneumonia, etc., but everyone agrees that they died of AIDS because they wouldn't have died otherwise. This virus attacks the respiratory system.  Without oxygen, all the other organs start failing. Heart,  etc. Cause of death may be heart failure.  But it was brought on by the massive viral infection.  Not sure why that makes you think hundreds of thousands of medical and public health workers are all in on some massive scheme. 

Fauci and others have all said that if we're effective at flattening the curve, we'll be accused of going too far. It's foolish and ignorant and take the results and conclude that the response was overblown.  I hate to say this  but in six more months I doubt you'll be able to so gleefully compare the death toll to the flu. We're only 2 months into this virus.

 

[jeb6294]

We're only 2 months into this virus.

False...more and more reports have been coming out that show the virus has been in the United States a lot earlier than originally thought. The only difference is that the media didn't create a panic until two months ago.

The problem with COVID is that they are so eager to pin that as cause of death that the numbers will never be accurate. Using your example, yes he died of heart failure and had COVID, but he was also 70 years old, overweight and had high blood pressure. So did the COVID get him or was it his poor overall health? What's to say the exact same thing would have happened if he'd gotten the flu? The only difference is that, if it had been the flu that pushed him over the egde, they would have thrown him in the ground and chalked it up to a heart attack.

 

[mudpuppy]

But hey if you don't believe it, go out there and start licking doorknobs to prove that the experts are wrong.

The problem is some people are doing just this and 99% of them will be fine in the end which they think proves they were right.  They have a hard time comprehending anything abstract like statistics.

 

[Master slacker]

Everyone creates their own opinions based on data they have.  

United States deaths in 2017,

Heart disease - 647,000 deaths (23% of all deaths)

Cancer - 599,000 (21.3%)

Lower respiratory diseases - 160,000 deaths (5.7%)

Flu and pneumonia - 55,000 (2%)

Now, if anyone in the total list shown at CDC even has COVID and dies --> COVID death.  Essentially, deaths attributed to the "underlying condition" categories from prior years are being taken away and applied to COVID numbers this year. 

Can anyone say, with certainty, that someone carrying COVID who dies after falling off a ladder will NOT have their cause of death attributed to COVID?  I'm skeptical.

 

[ChebyshevII PE PMP]

Jesus F Christ people. The virus is real and this is not a massive conspiracy to impose socialism on the US. If this virus was going around last October and November, it would have been obvious from the number of people in the ICU and on ventilators. Which was not the case. How do I know that?  Because the US and the rest of the world have robust public health surveillance systems that have been in place for decades (a century??) designed to detect waves of unexplained flu-like illnesses. 

A lack of information is not indicative of a conspiracy. It is simply because this is all new, and even the smart people don't know everything about this virus yet. 

But hey if you don't believe it, go out there and start licking doorknobs to prove that the experts are wrong.

I agree that there is no conspiracy, and that the virus is real.

BUT: I'm getting sick of our leaders (left/right wing alike) taking advantage of the situation for their own personal gains. Where that leads is scarier to me than this stupid virus.

 

[Road Guy]

I think for most of the country the nationwide shutdown and forcing 30+Million into unemployment wasnt really worth it. 

I think we could have implemented some other rules other than the "lockdowns" that would have produced similar results - except for places like NYC where people enjoy living stacked up on top of each other.

These are the #'s to date from my wifes hospital:

850 covid admits

87 died

560 discharged < 24 hours

So far the hospital says they have lost $57M since March (loss of regular work,elective surgeries etc) and this is after getting $50M from the feds and another $5M loan to "pay doctors" cause you know you can send techs and nurses home without pay, but gotta pay them ******* doctors...

 

[Dleg]

Hey I understand denial. I was sick in January and hope it was COVID,  too. I had a flu like illness in October,  and would also like to think that was COVID,  but it's highly unlikely. But even if we can take the serum antibodies test results at face value, only 20% of New Yorkers had been infected, and less than 5% of the residents of Santa Clara county in California. The virus has a shitload more fuel to burn through before this is all over.

We're engineers so we may not be experts or even amateurs when it comes to interpreting epidemiological data. But we're not bad at numbers in general.  Take a look at these graphs and think about two things,  purely mathematically: if this kicked off in October, without any flattening measures at all  why didn't the curves take off and peak in January ? And for those eager to relieve their fears by comparing the numbers to other annual causes of deaths,  do some mental curve completion (and estimation of the area under the curve) and see if what you come up with gives you  the warm and fuzzies. 

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/USA-TRENDS/dgkvlgkrkpb/index.html

Edit: don't forget this is confirmed cases, so it's valid to use the case fatality rate to estimate deaths.  Currently that's at 6.2% for the USA.

 

[Dleg]

But clearly there is no convincing some of you.

I will make one final observation before returning to memes and dark humor, which has helped me get through the past two months with some semblance of sanity. And that is that the State and Local governments were largely left to decide how to deal with this situation on their own.  Despite the advice and statistics provided by the federal government, decisions on what to close down were left up to your local and state elected officials.  The feds for the most part limited themselves to providing technical support and resources. 

It's super easy to sit at home in quarantine and armchair quarterback this whole thing. But it's interesting that the vast majority of state and local governments, conservative and liberal, took similar mitigation measures. My takeaway is that when a person or body of people is placed in a position where they are forced to make decisions that will affect how many people will live or die, whether they are conservative or liberal, they tend to lean toward the more protective side. I would guess from that, that the majority of you would, too, if it was your signature on the orders.

 

[Dleg]

 

[Dleg]

 

[Road Guy]

 

[Platypus Engineer]

I never said virus was not real. I think there are civil liberties issues that need to be addressed. For example, what if a lockdown for safety reasons had been imposed after Sept 11 attacks. That could still be in effect now because of threat of terrorism.

You cant completely eliminate risk. Even after vaccine, people still will get sick and die from virus.

 

[Road Guy]

 

[Road Guy]

I was expecting that as other retail stores open the chaos at Lowes and Home Depot would die down, but I think its even worse!

I went around 7 last night (Sunday) to grab a few things I needed and the line at both was literally wrapped around the side of the building to the back?

Also I needed some new gym shoes (Metcons baby) so I was waiting until our normal place opened up to spend some money with them, only to find out they sold most of there supply on curb sales and wont have my size for 2 weeks so I ended up ordering online anyways /)

 

[P-E]

I was expecting that as other retail stores open the chaos at Lowes and Home Depot would die down, but I think its even worse!

I went around 7 last night (Sunday) to grab a few things I needed and the line at both was literally wrapped around the side of the building to the back?

Also I needed some new gym shoes (Metcons baby) so I was waiting until our normal place opened up to spend some money with them, only to find out they sold most of there supply on curb sales and wont have my size for 2 weeks so I ended up ordering online anyways /)

As stuff re-opens more people feel that it is safe to go out and shop.   Looks like MA is going to start to open things.  I may wait a couple weeks and see what happens locally with new cases.  I'm in one of the top 20 counties in the country for confirmed cases and we have as many as Japan.

 

[Master slacker]

I stood in line at Cabela's for 20 minutes yesterday.  

 

[Road Guy]

see I can wait for a "fun" store like Cabela's or Northern Hardware, but not to buy toilet guts for something I dont really want to do anyways 

We made our every other Sunday at 5:30 PM trip to Costco (when no one was there) we have tons of chicken and cow products but needed eggs and milk and bread - was nice to shop with the store to ourselves for the most part

 

[Supe]

BJ's was the most crowded I have seen it since all of this started, when I went yesterday around noon-ish.  Crowded still means I waited about 30 seconds for a register.  The line for them to check the receipt was longer than the register wait.