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Also, another post for the thread: JayKay is totally not mafia, please do not kill.

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10 minutes ago, JayKay0914 said:

Also, another post for the thread: JayKay is totally not mafia, please do not kill.

Chaosmuppet is also definately not mafia, but has been and still is very very busy so (sadly) will not be heavily involved or provide you guys with shenanigans. @Roarbark pm me with your preferred alcoholic beverage and where you want it sent.

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35 minutes ago, JayKay0914 said:

HOW DARE YOU IMPLY MY MAMA IS MAFIA DUE TO HER MAKING THE MEATBALLS FOR DINNER.

*head of the mafia. the meatball maker is the leader!??? :dunno: 

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36 minutes ago, JayKay0914 said:

Also, another random question for the thread, 2 or 3 mafia this round?  Were we told and I missed it? 

I don't think we've ever been told; just speculated, mostly via @RBHeadge PE's analyseseseseses 

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i think the mafia has a hit out on me IRL. I had to basically speedwalk to the office because a suspicious creature was suspiciously being suspicious and pacing my walking speed in a nonvisible area. perfect place to get lynched 😮 

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3 minutes ago, tj_PE said:

I don't think we've ever been told; just speculated, mostly via @RBHeadge PE's analyseseseseses 

Hmmm, okay.  So we started with 9 people.  2 were eliminated, one was confirmed to be a townsperson (chart) the other was killed in a suspicious manner, pretty much confirmed to not be mafia, but wasn't totally confirmed to be a normal/plain townsperson, I think (vhab).

That leaves 7 left.  If we have 3 mafia (1 mafia per 3 people) + doctor + cop, that means there are only 2 normal townspeople left.  I'm a normal townsperson who just wants to be able to buy produce without getting shot.

Edited by JayKay0914
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24 minutes ago, JayKay0914 said:

Hmmm, okay.  So we started with 9 people.  2 were eliminated, one was confirmed to be a townsperson (chart) the other was killed in a suspicious manner, pretty much confirmed to not be mafia, but wasn't totally confirmed to be a normal/plain townsperson, I think (vhab).

That leaves 7 left.  If we have 3 mafia (1 mafia per 3 people) + doctor + cop, that means there are only 2 normal townspeople left.  I'm a normal townsperson who just wants to be able to buy produce without getting shot.

the oranges tho! what other produce? :GotPics: <<idk I was looking for a hmm thinking face and saw this...accepted it.

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1 hour ago, JayKay0914 said:

Wait.  Does this mean @vhab49_PE was a townsperson?  Or just not mafia?

It would be a really bold strategy for the mafia to eliminate one of their own on the first day. That's some galaxy brain stuff.

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTOKsHPrym2o_FauKwsLdi

1 hour ago, JayKay0914 said:

Also, another random question for the thread, 2 or 3 mafia this round?  Were we told and I missed it? 

It's been two the last three rounds, but three mafia wouldn't surprise me if it happened.

59 minutes ago, JayKay0914 said:

Also, another post for the thread: JayKay is totally not mafia, please do not kill.

Congratulations on surviving the first day! I found actual footage of @JayKay0914 celebrating with an orange peel:

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRjnhWplmweY9CE1DwdJLx

 

31 minutes ago, tj_PE said:

I don't think we've ever been told; just speculated, mostly via @RBHeadge PE's analyseseseseses 

ohh crap, sorry guys. I've was RL busy at work this morning. I'll put something together shortly.

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15 minutes ago, RBHeadge PE said:

Congratulations on surviving the first day! I found actual footage of @JayKay0914 celebrating with an orange peel:

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRjnhWplmweY9CE1DwdJLx

Oh man!  I hope I can pick some tomatoes after this!  They're my favorite and so healthy for my heart!

As for the mafia eliminating one of their own...possible.  Some people aren't 'playing'-playing this round, so it's possible if they are mafia/they're talking to other mafia, that they told them to kill/ax them to muddy the trail.  I mean...maybe.

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This is a quick copy from the morning of day 2 last week. Most of the odds remain the same.

So there are seven players remaining: including 1-3 mafia, 2-4 regular townies, the doctor may be alive or dead, the cop may be alive or dead.

@RBHeadge PE

@tj_PE

@NikR

@ChebyshevII_PE

@ChaosMuppetPE

@ptatohed

@JayKay0914

The game is still going on so the 0<mafia<4.

The cop may or may not have survived the night. If s/he did, s/he knows at least one trusted townie OR one irregular person (mafia or the doctor). If the cop knows a safe townie, s/he would be wise to start teaming with him/her.

The doctor may or may not have survived the night. If the doctor did survive, s/he choose poorly last night.

Day 2 Analysis:

Unless stated otherwise, I'm leaving out the events where the doctor guesses right. The event tree become too convoluted at this stage of the game with those probabilities and I have a day job, one that has me pretty busy this week. Similarly, I'm assuming blind guesses with no strategy at this stage of the game. So the probabilities listed below are conservative for the townies. In the later stages, strategy overwhelms the dice - but I don't have enough data to guess how those will play out at this stage of the game.

If mafia=3

9% of townie win on day 4/5. Including winning a high noon shootout scenario.

4% we keep picking right the next couple days, but lose the shootout.

26% we pick right tonight but wrong tomorrow night and lose the town.

46% the game is over in 22 hours if we pick wrong tonight and the doctor protects the wrong person overnight. 11% chance we pick wrong but the doctor guesses right and we live to fight another day

 

if mafia=2

40% we win. This involves picking right in the evening at least once, and winning shootout scenarios. We could win in as soon as Day 3, or it could drag into day 5

43% we never pick right and we lose the town. 17% we lose in shootouts. The game could be over in a couple nights or possibly last into Day 5.

 

if mafia=1

14% we pick right and outright win tonight.

63% chance we pick right in the coming days or win the shootout.

77% total townie win

23% chance mafia beats the dice and takes the town

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I'll say the doctor chose poorly last night.  

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Though I want to vote for you, simply because you're voting for me on suspicion, I am instead voting for @ptatohed.  They voted for chart, who was eliminated the first round, and now seems to be targeting you (which would mean me voting for you would most likely kill you, even if you are an 'innocent' woodworker).  Since this is a game based on not letting the mafia win, and I can always buy produce in the afterlife...

@Roarbark I vote for @ptatohed, because they are specifically targeting people in the morning hoping that other people will follow their lead.

@NikR you better lay flowers at my grave.

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Let it be known that I do not trust @NikR.

Alas, I have been dedded in the night, so cannot vote for said member.

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11 minutes ago, vhab49_PE said:

Let it be known that I do not trust @NikR.

Alas, I have been dedded in the night, so cannot vote for said member.

I WOULD HAVE SAVED YOU IF I WAS A DOCTOR.  But, alas, I am but a produce-driven townsperson who is being accused by slander by others!

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17 minutes ago, vhab49_PE said:

Let it be known that I do not trust @NikR.

Alas, I have been dedded in the night, so cannot vote for said member.

it sucks that you are so ded :( 

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7 minutes ago, tj_PE said:

it sucks that you are so ded :( 

I know right?

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14 minutes ago, JayKay0914 said:

I WOULD HAVE SAVED YOU IF I WAS A DOCTOR.  But, alas, I am but a produce-driven townsperson who is being accused by slander by others!

I believe you, townie!

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9 minutes ago, vhab49_PE said:

@NikR prove yourself to be a townie.  

my bank account definitely says I am not mafia

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11 minutes ago, vhab49_PE said:

Or is it @ChaosMuppetPE we need to worry about?

As someone who is "supposedly" not going to be around a lot/not really playing, there is a possibility they might be mafia who are waiting until the townspeople have all killed each other/the doctor before they step in a use numbers to kill everyone not mafia.

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1 minute ago, NikR said:

my bank account definitely says I am not mafia

Just means your a lieutenant or soldier, not a capo.  🤥

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